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Fears of Global Financial Contagion Forcing Investors to Move Away from the Equities Market – CBN

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Godwin Emefiele - Investors King

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has stated that the renewed fears of a global financial contagion are forcing investors to move away from the equities market to safer assets such as gold, while others seek higher returns in treasury securities with improved yields.

This was highlighted in a recent publication on CBN Communique No 147 of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on Monday 20th and Tuesday 21st March 2023 and personal statements of Members.

With several advanced economy central banks progressing with monetary policy normalization however, CBN posited that the global financial conditions will likely remain tight, thus reinforcing the reassignment of financial portfolios to reflect the risk aversion of investors.

On global economic development, the Monetary Policy Committee noted the risk of a global financial contagion from the recent bank failures in the United States and Switzerland whilst also pointing to the war between Russia and Ukraine as the cause of the critical strains to the commodities and energy markets as supply chain bottlenecks remain. In addition, it says the deteriorating relations between the US, China, Russia and some major oil producers in the Middle East, continue to contribute to increased volatility in the oil market.

In Emerging Markets and Developing Economies, the unfolding tight external financing conditions and shock spillovers from the advanced economies threatened to further dampen the recovery of output growth.

Amongst key Advanced Economy central banks, targeted at moderating global demand pressure, global inflation shows signs of deceleration, monetary policy normalization is progressing unabated, hence, price development across several economies is thus expected to remain high throughout 2023, but to decelerate gradually in 2024.

The CBN also highlights key factors to keep inflation above the long-run target of several central banks to include persisting disruption to energy markets associated with continued war between Russia and Ukraine; high commodity prices; and general disruptions to the global supply chain associated with uncertainties around the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the ongoing tensions between the US and China over Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Across several emerging market and developing economies, it added that inflationary pressures have remained high due largely to rising energy prices, high prices of grains and exchange rate pressures associated with capital flows to high yield US dollar-denominated assets.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Exchange Sees 0.05% Uptick After Bearish Streak: Investors Gain N26bn

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After enduring a prolonged period of bearish trading, the Nigerian Exchange has finally witnessed a slight uptick, bringing a glimmer of hope to investors.

The modest increase of 0.05% in the All-Share Index signals a potential reversal of the recent downward trend with investors collectively gaining N26 billion in market value.

In recent days, the local bourse has been grappling with a bearish run, characterized by sell-offs and waning investor interest. Major indexes had faltered, dipping below milestones achieved earlier in the year.

However, Thursday’s trading session brought a much-needed reprieve as the market saw a marginal increase, instilling cautious optimism among market participants.

At the close of trading on Thursday, the All-Share Index edged up by 48 basis points, settling at 98,169.30 points.

Similarly, the market capitalization appreciated by 0.05%, reaching N55.52 trillion. While the increase may seem modest, it marks a significant shift from the downward trajectory that had persisted in previous sessions.

The market movers for the day included stocks of Zenith Bank Plc, Access Holdings, and Transcorp, which contributed to the gains observed.

Transcorp Hotels, Livestock, Tantalizer Plc, Sunu Assurance, and WAPIC led the pack with notable share price increases ranging from 6.15% to 9.75%.

Despite the overall uptrend, the exchange recorded more losers than gainers, reflecting subdued trading activity. Total deals, volume, and value experienced declines, indicating lingering caution among investors.

Sectoral performance was mixed, with the banking and consumer goods indexes witnessing declines, while the insurance index posted gains.

The announcement of corporate earnings and the proposed banking sector recapitalization exercise failed to significantly reignite interest in the market.

While these developments may have influenced investor sentiment to some extent, broader economic factors and global market conditions continue to shape investor behavior.

Zenith Bank emerged as the most traded security by volume and value, further underlining its significance in the market.

With 48.49 million units valued at N1.77 billion exchanged in 577 deals, Zenith Bank remains a key player in driving trading activity on the exchange.

As the market navigates through uncertainties and volatility, investors remain cautiously optimistic about future prospects.

While the recent uptick offers a glimmer of hope, market participants are keenly observing developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly, cognizant of the dynamic nature of the financial markets.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Exchange Continues Bearish Trend, Investors Lose N673bn

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The Nigerian exchange closed another day in the red as market capitalisation dipped by N673 billion on Wednesday.

The persistent downward trend has left stakeholders grappling with uncertainty and heightened volatility in the financial markets.

During midweek trading, the All-Share Index (ASI) endured a decline of 1.20% or 1,190.24 index points to settle at 98,121.30 index points.

Similarly, the market capitalization of listed equities plummeted by 1.20% to N55.494 trillion, this downturn further reduced the year-to-date return to 31.22%.

The Nigerian exchange has been mired in a bearish sentiment for weeks, marked by successive declines attributed to sell-offs driven by prevailing market dynamics and shifts in fundamentals.

Factors such as a high-interest rate environment and improved yields in alternative investment avenues have contributed to the sustained downward pressure on the exchange.

Despite the overall negative sentiment, there were more gainers than decliners, with 22 stocks recording gains compared to 19 stocks in the red. This shift in market dynamics was reflected in trading activity levels, with total deals and value experiencing gains of 7.96% and 22.10%, respectively.

However, traded volume witnessed a notable decline of 31.10% to 395.75 million units.

Sectoral performance exhibited a mixed trend, with the Banking and Insurance sectors posting losses due to sell-offs in key stocks such as FBN Holdings, United Bank for Africa, AIICO, and others.

Conversely, the Consumer and Industrial Goods sectors recorded marginal gains driven by positive sentiment in select stocks.

Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc emerged as the most traded security in terms of volume and value, followed closely by Zenith Bank Plc. However, key stocks such as MTN Nigeria, Transcorp Hotels, Oando Plc, and FBNH experienced significant declines, contributing to the overall market downturn.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Stocks Open Week with 0.17% Gain, Banking Sector Leads Market Rally

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Nigerian Exchange Limited - Investors King

Nigerian stocks commenced the week on a positive note as the Exchange gained 0.17% in Monday’s trading session, with the banking sector spearheading the market rally.

The positive close pushed this year’s return to date to 33.34%, one of the highest in the world at the moment.

Analysts attributed the market’s positive momentum to increased investor interest in banking, insurance and industrial goods stocks.

This surge in buying activity follows recent widespread selloffs in the banking sector, presenting attractive opportunities for bargain hunters.

According to Vetiva Research analysts, the banking space witnessed significant bargain-hunting activity, indicating renewed confidence in the sector after previous weeks of sell-offs.

This sentiment propelled the overall market performance, with expectations of mixed trading sessions in the coming days as first-quarter earnings reports start to trickle in.

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) All-Share Index (ASI) and Market Capitalization reflected the market’s upward trajectory, appreciating from 99,539.75 points and N56.296 trillion respectively to 99,665.05 points and N56.367 trillion.

In total, investors exchanged 306,620,144 shares worth N5.300 billion in 8,298 deals.

Despite the positive market sentiment, analysts from Lagos-based United Capital Research cautioned that activities in the fixed income market could continue to deter equities investments.

However, they highlighted the potential for bargain-hunting activities, particularly in the banking sector, amidst the recent bearish trend.

Overall, the Nigerian equities market’s resilient performance underscores investor confidence and optimism, driven by strategic sectoral investments and expectations of improved corporate earnings.

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