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Nigeria Economic Growth to Slow Down to 2.7% in 2023, Forecasts GlobalData

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Decline in oil production, insecurity ahead of 2023 general elections and high inflationary pressure remain the major areas of concern for Nigeria.

Against this backdrop, the real GDP growth of the country is forecast to slow down from 3% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, reveals GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest report, “Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Nigeria,” reveals that broadening inflationary pressure had triggered a cost-of-living crisis. Inflation rate is projected to further rise to 19.2% in 2023 from 19.1% in 2022. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Multidimensional Poverty Index Survey (2022), as of 17 November 2022, 133 million people, equivalent to 63% of the nation’s population, were experiencing multidimensional poverty in the country.

Nigeria is categorized as a high-risk nation and ranks 133rd out of 153 nations in GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI Q3 2022). The country’s risk score is higher in the parameters of political environment, macroeconomic, social, technological, and environmental risk when compared to the average of Middle East and African nations.

Puja Tiwari, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Nigeria’s oil output rose to 1.4 billion barrels per day (bpd) in December 2022 from below one bpd in August 2022, according to Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. However, it is significantly below what it was last decade ago (above two million bpd). Oil theft and prolonged repair work at Forcados, a key oil terminal which is expected to continue till September 2023, will result in Nigeria’s under production of crude oil in 2023. Meanwhile, the violent attacks on the election commission offices raise questions on the security in the country ahead of elections.”

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According to GlobalData, agriculture, industry and services sectors contributed 23.6%, 32.2% and 44.2%, respectively, to the gross values added (GVA) in 2022. The three sectors are forecast to grow by 12.2%, 14% and 12.2% in 2023, compared to 13%, 14.9% and 12.9%, respectively, in 2022.

In October 2022, the country allocated a budget of NGN20.5 trillion ($51.5 billion) for the 2023 fiscal year, of which more than 60% will be used to finance debt repayments. This will curtail the expenditure on other developmental sectors.

The naira per US dollar depreciated by 8.7% year-on-year on 2 January 2023. Furthermore, GlobalData estimates the exchange rate to depreciate to NGN420.6 per $ in 2023 from 415.3 per $ in 2022. Nigeria’s foreign exchange (forex) remained depressed amid the dwindling crude oil production and lower exports revenue.

Tiwari concludes: “Introducing measures to reduce poverty as well as monetary measures to curb the mounting prices continue to be the need of the hour for the Nigerian economy. Moreover, the government also needs to work towards policies to control rising gross debt, depreciating currency, and increasing unemployment to reactivate the economy.”

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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