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Recession: Local Automakers’ Production Capacity Drops by 97%

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  • Local Automakers’ Production Capacity Drops by 97%

Activities at vehicle assembly plants across the country have nosedived as the automakers continue to experience a decline in the patronage of their products, no thanks to the biting economic recession.

A new report put together by Prof. Okey Iheduru of the Arizona State University showed that the annual capacity utilisation of the auto plants in Nigeria had dropped by 97 per cent, from 500,000 vehicles to just 15,000 vehicles.

The Chief Economist at PricewaterhouseCoopers Limited, Dr. Andrew Navin, who noted that the auto industry was still dominated by used cars imports more than two years after the introduction of a new auto policy, also said local production accounted for only one per cent of the market.

Iheduru and Navin spoke in Lagos at a symposium organised by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which had as its theme: ‘The Nigerian auto policy: Reality checks on the economy and the future’.

Iheduru, who gave the installed capacity for the over 40 existing auto assembly plants in the country as 500,000 cars annually, said the firms could only utilise less than three per cent of that capacity.

Although the don noted that some progress had been made following the implementation of the National Automotive Industry Development Plan in 2014, he stressed that “the substance of the policy has failed.”

“The delay in imposing the second phase of the 35 per cent tariff on imported used vehicles is adversely affecting investment in the auto assembly plants and the growth of the industry,” he stated.

Navin, in his presentation, also said the NAIDP, which was introduced to reduce the nation’s dependence on automobile imports and stimulate investment in local manufacturing, had not been able to do well as continued depreciation in the value of naira and foreign exchange crisis had led to increases in the prices of new vehicles.

“Despite increased activity in the auto industry, vehicle ownership is low (in Nigeria) compared to other African countries,” he said.

According to him, vehicle production figures for the last year showed that South Africa did 615,658 vehicles; Morocco, 288,329; Egypt, 36,000; Algeria, 20,000; and Nigeria, 3,500.

Both speakers urged the government to lead in the patronage of locally-made vehicles as enunciated in Gazette No. 24 of 1994, which compelled all tiers of government to source their vehicles locally.

“Unless the auto financing market develops, new vehicles will continue to be beyond the reach of most Nigerian who will settle for Tokunbos (used vehicles),” Iheduru said.

Navin said for Nigeria to become Africa’s automotive hub, it must address certain gaps in the industry such as improving the chances of owning a car; tighten the borders; protecting the consumers through safety and quality standards; setting up ancillary industries; and developing auxiliary industries.

The President, LCCI, Dr. Nike Akande, in her address at the event, said the sales recorded for new cars were too low for the local assembly plants to thrive and for foreign car manufacturers to be attracted to the Nigerian auto market.

She urged the government “to put plans and strategies in place to boost the demand for new cars in Nigeria through special automobile financing facilities for the middle-income earners to acquire new cars.

“There is also the need to provide the necessary infrastructure to support the steel and plastics sub-sectors, which are expected to produce various parts of vehicles. This will create jobs and tremendous multiplier effects for the economy.”

Other speakers at the forum were the Chief Commercial Officer, Dana Motors, Mr. Sandeep Malhotra; Managing Director, ABC Transport, Mr. Frank Neji; Director, Policy and Planning, NADDC. Dr. Luqman Mamudu; and Comptroller-General, Nigeria Customs Service, Col. Hameed Ali (retd).

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound After Three Days of Losses

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After enduring a three-day decline, oil prices recovered on Thursday, offering a glimmer of hope to investors amid a volatile market landscape.

The rebound was fueled by a combination of factors ranging from geopolitical developments to supply concerns.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria oil is priced, surged by 79 cents, or 0.95% to $84.23 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 69 cents, or 0.87% to $79.69 per barrel.

This turnaround came on the heels of a significant downturn that had pushed prices to their lowest levels since mid-March.

The recent slump in oil prices was primarily attributed to a confluence of factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and concerns surrounding stubborn inflation, which could potentially dampen economic growth and limit oil demand.

Also, unexpected data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealing a substantial increase in U.S. crude inventories added further pressure on oil prices.

“The updated inventory statistics were probably the most salient price driver over the course of yesterday’s trading session,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

Crude inventories surged by 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations and casting a shadow over market sentiment.

However, the tide began to turn as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas gained traction, offering a glimmer of hope for stability in the volatile Middle East region.

The prospect of a ceasefire agreement, spearheaded by Egypt, injected optimism into the market, offsetting concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions.

“As the impact of the U.S. crude stock build and the Fed signaling higher-for-longer rates is close to being fully baked in, attention will turn towards the outcome of the Gaza talks,” noted Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.

The potential for a resolution in the Israel-Hamas conflict provided a ray of hope, contributing to the positive momentum in oil markets.

Despite the optimism surrounding ceasefire talks, tensions in the Middle East remain palpable, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating plans for a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

The precarious geopolitical climate continues to underpin volatility in oil markets, reminding investors of the inherent risks associated with the commodity.

In addition to geopolitical developments, speculation regarding U.S. government buying for strategic reserves added further support to oil prices.

With the U.S. expressing intentions to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at prices below $79 a barrel, market participants closely monitored price movements, anticipating potential intervention to stabilize prices.

“The oil market was supported by speculation that if WTI falls below $79, the U.S. will move to build up its strategic reserves,” highlighted Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, owned by Nissan Securities.

As oil markets navigate a complex web of geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, the recent rebound underscores the resilience of the commodity in the face of adversity.

While challenges persist, the renewed optimism offers a ray of hope for stability and growth in the oil sector, providing investors with a semblance of confidence amidst a volatile landscape.

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Gold

Gold Soars as Fed Signals Patience

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Gold emerged as a star performer as the Federal Reserve adopted a more patient stance, sending the precious metal soaring to new heights.

Amidst a backdrop of uncertainty, gold’s ascent mirrored investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets and reflected their interpretation of the central bank’s cautious approach.

Following the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current levels, gold prices surged toward $2,330 an ounce in early Asian trade, building on a 1.5% gain from the previous session – the most significant one-day increase since mid-April.

The dovish tone struck by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the announcement provided the impetus for gold’s rally, as he downplayed the prospects of imminent rate hikes while underscoring the need for further evidence of cooling inflation before considering adjustments to borrowing costs.

This tempered outlook from the Fed, which emphasized patience and data dependence, bolstered gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Investors interpreted the central bank’s stance as a signal of continued support for accommodative monetary policies, providing a tailwind for the precious metal.

Simultaneously, the Japanese yen surged more than 3% against the dollar, sparking speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.

This move further weakened the dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of gold to investors seeking refuge from currency volatility.

Gold’s ascent in recent months has been underpinned by a confluence of factors, including robust central bank purchases, strong demand from Asian markets – particularly China – and geopolitical tensions ranging from conflicts in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East.

These dynamics have propelled gold’s price upwards by approximately 13% this year, culminating in a record high last month.

At 9:07 a.m. in Singapore, spot gold was up 0.3% to $2,326.03 an ounce, with silver also experiencing gains as it rose towards $27 an ounce.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index concurrently fell by 0.3%, further underscoring the inverse relationship between the dollar’s strength and gold’s allure.

However, amidst the fervor surrounding gold’s surge, palladium found itself trading below platinum after dipping below its sister metal for the first time since February.

The erosion of palladium’s long-standing premium was attributed to a pessimistic outlook for demand in gasoline-powered cars, highlighting the nuanced dynamics within the precious metals market.

As gold continues its upward trajectory, investors remain attuned to evolving macroeconomic indicators and central bank policy shifts, navigating a landscape defined by uncertainty and volatility.

In this environment, the allure of gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to endure, providing solace to investors seeking stability amidst turbulent times.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Steady as Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks Offer Hope, Red Sea Attacks Persist

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Amidst geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts, oil prices remained relatively stable as hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas emerged, while attacks in the Red Sea continued to escalate.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, saw a modest rise of 27 cents to $88.67 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 30 cents to $82.93 a barrel.

The optimism stems from negotiations between Israel and Hamas with talks in Cairo aiming to broker a potential ceasefire.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, attacks in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis persist, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply routes.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, emphasized the importance of a concrete agreement to drive market sentiment, stating that the oil market awaits a finalized deal between the conflicting parties.

Meanwhile, investor focus remains on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy review, particularly in light of persistent inflationary pressures.

Market expectations for any rate adjustments have been pushed out due to stubborn inflation, potentially bolstering the U.S. dollar and impacting oil demand.

Concerns over demand also weigh on sentiment, with ANZ analysts noting a decline in premiums for diesel and heating oil compared to crude oil, signaling subdued demand prospects.

As geopolitical uncertainties persist and market dynamics evolve, observers closely monitor developments in both the Middle East and global economic policies for their potential impact on oil prices and market stability.

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