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Broadband Penetration Garners Momentum – Coronation Merchant Bank

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Telecommunications - Investors King

The latest data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the industry regulator, show that internet subscriptions stood at 152.7 million in October ’22, representing a marginal decline of -0.05% m/m.

Meanwhile, on a y/y basis, internet subscriptions increased by 8.9%. Based on anecdotal evidence, internet subscription activity has been impacted by weaker spending capacity among consumers, following the upticks in the headline inflation.

MTN accounted for the largest share (42.2%) of internet subscriptions in October ’22. Meanwhile, Globacom, Airtel, and 9Mobile accounted for 27.9%, 26.3%, and 3.4% of total subscriptions respectively. Among the mobile network operators, MTNN, Globacom, and 9Mobile recorded m/m increases in internet subscriptions at 0.7%, 0.3%, and 6.1% respectively.

However, Airtel recorded a decline of -2.4% in total subscriptions.

Based on MTNN’s Q3 ’22 results, service revenue increased by 20.6% y/y. This was due to significant growth in data revenue (49.1% y/y). The increase in data can be largely attributed to a y/y increase in active data subscriptions (+3.7 million). These increases were supported by sustained 4G expansion as well as the conversion of existing subscribers on the 3G network to 4G in a bid to continue driving smartphone penetration.

Furthermore, 5G spectrum licenses increased to three (from two) in December ’22 as Airtel NG emerged the sole bidder in the NCC’s planned auction this year. We recall that the NCC had awarded 5G spectrum licenses to MTN and Mafab Communications in 2021.

We expect to see a positive ripple effect across sectors such as education, agriculture, finance, transportation, commerce, and healthcare. MTNN currently has 5G coverage in seven key cities in Nigeria (the FCT, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Owerri, Ibadan, Kano, and Maiduguri).

According to the NCC, in October ‘22, broadband penetration increased to 45.6%, vs 39.9% recorded in the corresponding period of 2021. We note that the FGN has a target of 90% broadband penetration by 2025. Several existing challenges continue to impact broadband penetration in Nigeria. They include, epileptic power supply, poor or limited ICT infrastructure, data costs and high fees associated with right of way (RoW).

In 2020, the Nigerian governors’ forum resolved that telecom operators should pay a RoW (rights of way) fee of N145 per linear meter of fibre. However, based on local newswires, only Kaduna, Ekiti, Katsina, Plateau, Ekiti, Kwara, Imo and Anambra are implementing the new fee.

The FCT minister recently disclosed a charge of N14.50 per linear meter RoW charges (a 90% reduction from the regular fee) would be considered for telecommunication companies that plan to deploy broadband in green areas across the FCT. This would boost broadband penetration in rural areas as well as significantly reduce operating costs.

It is worth highlighting that many states continue to charge relatively high RoW fees. Industry sources suggest that in states like Benue and Ogun, it costs operators N2,500 and N4,000 per linear meter of fibre respectively in RoW charges. However, in Lagos, the fee ranges between N750-N1500 per linear meter of fibre. The absence of a unified RoW fee across the country continuously stalls the advancement of broadband fibre networks.

The latest national accounts show that the telecommunications segment grew by 10.1% y/y in Q3 ’22 vs 7.7% recorded in Q2 ’22. Furthermore, inflation in the communication segment declined slightly to 11.5% y/y in November ‘22 from 11.8% y/y in November ‘21. However, operating expenses remain considerably high as telecommunication companies continue to struggle with high energy costs, fx illiquidity, vandalism and supply chain disruptions, among others.

 

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Telecom Tax, Other Levies Back on the Table for $750m Loan

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In a bid to secure a $750 million loan from the World Bank, Nigeria is considering the reintroduction of previously suspended telecom taxes and other fiscal measures.

This potential move comes as part of the Stakeholder Engagement Plan for Nigeria – Accelerating Resource Mobilisation Reforms program between the country and the World Bank.

The program, aimed at strengthening the government’s financial position by enhancing its capacity to manage and mobilize domestic resources effectively, outlines plans to improve tax and customs compliance and safeguard oil revenues.

Among the proposed measures are the reintroduction of excises on telecom services and the EMT levy on electronic money transfers through the Nigerian Banking System.

President Bola Tinubu had previously ordered the suspension of the five percent excise duty on telecommunications and the Import Tax Adjustment levy on certain vehicles in July 2023.

However, negotiations between the government and the World Bank suggest that this suspension may be lifted to meet the targets of the new loan program.

The World Bank’s contribution of $750 million constitutes a significant portion of the program’s budget, with the government expected to contribute $1.17 billion through annual budgetary allocations.

The proposed tax reforms under the ARMOR program are expected to have far-reaching implications across various economic sectors.

Stakeholders that would be affected by these measures include telecom and banking service providers, manufacturers of goods such as alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, and sugar-sweetened beverages, as well as the general tax-paying public, importers, and international traders.

Key industry groups, such as the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria, are being engaged regarding the excise duties on telecom services.

The planned reintroduction of these taxes is part of a larger governmental initiative aimed at reforming tax and excise regimes, enhancing the administrative capabilities of tax and customs, and ensuring transparency in oil and gas revenue management from 2024 to 2028.

The program also emphasizes the importance of engaging vulnerable groups to mitigate any disproportionate impact of these changes.

Additionally, the program outlines specific allocations for technical assistance, including investments in better data sharing systems, risk-based audits, compliance processes, and capacity building for institutions such as the Federal Inland Revenue Service and the Nigeria Customs Service.

While the reintroduction of telecom taxes and other levies may face resistance from some stakeholders, the government sees them as essential steps toward achieving its fiscal targets and unlocking much-needed financing for development projects.

As negotiations with the World Bank continue, Nigeria must balance its revenue needs with the potential impact on businesses and consumers.

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Nigeria’s Mobile Subscriptions Drop by 5.4 Million in Q1 2024, NIN Enforcement Blamed

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Active mobile subscriptions dropped by 5.4 million in the first quarter of 2024, according to data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

The total active mobile subscriptions stood at 219 million, a 2.4% decrease from the previous quarter’s 224.4 million.

This decline has been directly attributed to the stringent enforcement of the National Identity Number (NIN)-Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) linkage policy by the NCC.

Since its inception, the policy has aimed to bolster national security measures and enhance accountability within the telecom sector by mandating the linkage of mobile phone numbers to individuals’ unique NINs.

The regulatory directive, which came into effect in December 2023, required telecom operators to deactivate SIMs not linked to their owners’ NINs by February 28, 2024. The process unfolded in three phases with subsequent deadlines set for March 29 and April 15.

However, due to various challenges and requests for extensions, the final phase was postponed to July 31.

During this period, over 40 million lines, encompassing both active and multiple lines registered to a single subscriber, were reportedly barred by telecom operators.

The majority of these lines were found to be inactive, suggesting a considerable impact on non-compliant subscribers.

The National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) disclosed that as of April 2024, a total of 105 million Nigerians had enrolled for the NIN, indicating a widespread response to the government’s initiative to bolster identity verification processes.

In April 2022, the telecom sector experienced a similar wave of disruption as operators commenced the initial phase of enforcing the SIM-NIN rule.

During that period, over 72.77 million active telecom lines were barred, signaling a pivotal moment in regulatory compliance efforts.

MTN Nigeria, the country’s largest telecom operator, revealed in its first-quarter 2024 financial report that it had deactivated 8.6 million lines due to non-compliance with the NIN mandate.

However, the company emphasized its efforts to minimize the net impact of barred subscribers through effective customer management strategies.

Karl Toriola, CEO of MTN Nigeria, underscored the resilience of the company’s customer value initiatives in mitigating subscriber churn and driving gross connections amid regulatory challenges.

Despite the substantial drop in active subscriptions, MTN Nigeria closed the quarter with a total of 77.7 million subscribers, showcasing the effectiveness of its retention strategies.

As Nigeria navigates the evolving telecom landscape amidst regulatory reforms, stakeholders anticipate further measures to enhance compliance and fortify the integrity of the country’s telecommunications ecosystem.

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Fintechs Instructed to Report Cryptocurrency Transactions to Authorities in Nigeria

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fintech - Investors King

Fintech companies across the country have been instructed to report all crypto trades to relevant authorities.

This directive comes amidst the recent freezing of 105 accounts across nine fintech firms suspected of various illegal activities, including unauthorized forex dealings, money laundering, and terrorism financing.

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) obtained an interim court order on April 24, 2024, to freeze these accounts for 90 days as part of ongoing investigations.

Sources close to the matter suggest a connection between these freezes and heightened scrutiny of cryptocurrency transactions.

Following these regulatory actions, several prominent fintech players, including OPay, Moniepoint, PalmPay, and Kuda Bank, have been directed to suspend the opening of new accounts temporarily pending evaluations of their Know Your Customer (KYC) processes by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The frozen accounts are part of a broader investigation by the EFCC into 1,146 bank accounts suspected of manipulating the foreign exchange market through cryptocurrency platforms.

The EFCC believes that some account owners exploited cryptocurrency platforms to manipulate the FX market.

In response to these developments, fintech firms have started implementing stringent measures against cryptocurrency transactions.

Moniepoint, for instance, notified its customers that it would close accounts engaged in crypto or virtual asset transactions and share their details with relevant authorities.

Similar warnings were issued by other fintech players like Paga and OPay, emphasizing their stance against crypto-related activities.

During a recent industry event, Tosin Eniolorunda, founder and CEO of Moniepoint, urged participants in crypto Peer-to-Peer (P2P) markets to cease their activities due to regulatory prohibitions.

He highlighted the risks associated with engaging in such activities, citing potential legal repercussions.

Eniolorunda linked the recent regulatory actions to the prevalence of fraud in fintech apps and emphasized the renewed focus on KYC and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) measures.

He alleged that some P2P crypto activities contributed to the manipulation of the Nigerian currency, the naira, prompting regulatory intervention.

This latest directive underscores Nigeria’s broader crackdown on cryptocurrency platforms, particularly Binance, which began earlier in 2024.

The government has expressed concerns about the role of crypto platforms in currency speculation and their impact on the devaluation of the naira.

This regulatory tightening reflects the government’s efforts to maintain financial stability and curb illicit financial activities in the country.

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