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Cautious Post-Jobs Report

A relatively slow start to the week as investors continue to digest Friday’s jobs report and what it means for financial markets just as some optimism was returning.

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

A relatively slow start to the week as investors continue to digest Friday’s jobs report and what it means for financial markets just as some optimism was returning.

The report itself was strong almost across the board, with participation being the only outlier, but Fed officials will not have been quite so enthused which makes it a tough one for investors to get too excited about.

On the one hand, it strengthens the argument that the economy is not really experiencing a recession as the labour market is simply too strong. On the other, it’s also extremely tight and wages are continuing to rise at a fast rate which will make the task of fighting inflation that much harder.

With another 75 basis point rate hike next month now the favoured outcome, although a lot can change in that time, it could be a nervy couple of days for investors ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report. It turns out the shift to data-dependency isn’t all it was cracked up to be.

Another record Chinese trade surplus but also more lockdowns

It’s a relatively quiet day, and the economic calendar continues to look very thin. How traders continue to respond to Friday’s report will be key in how we start the week. Asia is off to a mildly positive start but it’s nothing to write home about.

Cities on the Chinese resort island of Hainan have been placed in lockdown following another Covid outbreak, reminding investors once more of the country’s commitment to its zero-Covid policy at all costs. At the same time, Hong Kong has sought to appease residents and the business community by cutting quarantine periods from seven days to three. While still very restrictive compared to much of the world at this point, it was a bolder move than anticipated and highlighted the pressure to return to normal life.

Chinese trade data highlighted the struggles of the domestic economy, with imports rising 2.3% annually last month while exports remained surprisingly strong up 18%, delivering another record trade surplus. The numbers aren’t expected to remain quite so favourable in the months ahead as reopening momentum fades, leaving the import numbers a concern.

Iran talks resume as oil makes small gains

Oil prices are a little higher today, recovering from the lows on Friday. The jobs report highlighted how strong the economy remains although traders are now increasingly nervous about more aggressive tightening sending the economy into a deeper recession further down the road. It really is a lose-lose.

The resumption of Iran nuclear talks today is one potential downside risk for the oil price, given the ability of the country to quickly ramp up production if a deal is struck. Not to mention its reportedly large oil and gas reserves. A deal could apparently be struck within days although we have heard that a lot at times this year.

Gold nervously eyeing inflation data

Gold is flat today after Friday’s jobs report took the wind out of its sails. The recovery trade was being fueled by the belief that data-dependency meant a slower pace of tightening but that’s now clearly not the case (nor was it ever, in fairness). We may see some nervy trading in the yellow metal ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report although it still seems to have an eye on $1,780-1,800 which is the next major test to the upside.

A swift recovery

Sentiment across the markets looks a little fragile this morning and yet crypto appears to have shrugged off Friday’s shock much more quickly. Up more than 3% this morning and climbing once more with its sights set on $25,000 it seems. The momentum indicators will be fascinating here as the recovery appeared to be losing steam during the last ascent in late July.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Nigerian Exchange Limited

NGX Group Unveils Plans for Online Public Offer Platform and African Expansion

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Amidst a backdrop of strategic vision and digital transformation, the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) has unveiled plans to revolutionize capital raising and expand its footprint across the African continent.

At the 63rd Annual General Meeting (AGM) held recently in Lagos, the group disclosed its intent to launch an online platform for public offers while forging ahead with its expansion into new African markets.

The announcement is a significant milestone for the NGX Group, reinforcing its commitment to innovation and growth within the African capital markets.

With a focus on enhancing accessibility and efficiency, the forthcoming online platform for public offers is poised to redefine the capital-raising landscape, providing issuers with a smarter and more streamlined avenue to raise capital.

According to a statement from the group, the platform will facilitate various public offerings, including initial public offerings (IPOs), rights issues, and other offerings, thereby revolutionizing the subscription process and operational workflow in the capital market.

This move underscores NGX Group’s dedication to driving growth and innovation while fostering a conducive environment for capital formation.

Furthermore, the NGX Group’s expansion strategy extends beyond domestic borders, with plans to deepen its presence across the African continent.

The recent acquisition of stakes in Ethiopia’s first-ever securities exchange marked the group’s entry into East Africa, highlighting its commitment to catalyzing growth and innovation within the region’s capital markets.

Commenting on the development, Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman of NGX Group, expressed gratitude to shareholders for their support and emphasized the board’s commitment to steering the company toward greater value creation.

Dr. Kwairanga affirmed the NGX Group’s readiness to capitalize on emerging opportunities, underpinned by positive reforms and forward-looking initiatives.

Echoing Dr. Kwairanga’s sentiments, Mr. Temi Popoola, Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of NGX Group, underscored the pivotal role of technology in driving the company’s future growth trajectory.

Mr. Popoola emphasized the transformative potential of digitalization, which aims to democratize access to public issuances and support capital-raising efforts for companies across Nigeria.

As shareholders approved a N10 billion rights issue, resolutions were passed to increase share capital, signaling confidence in NGX Group’s strategic direction and growth prospects.

The approval paves the way for the company to embark on its expansion initiatives and capitalize on emerging opportunities within the African capital markets.

Looking ahead, NGX Group remains steadfast in its commitment to leveraging technology, innovation, and strategic partnerships to drive sustainable growth and prosperity.

With a clear focus on digital transformation and African expansion, the company is poised to redefine the landscape of capital markets, fostering inclusivity, accessibility, and economic development across the continent.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Stock Market Rebounds, Led by Banking Giants

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The Nigerian stock market rebounded on Tuesday following renewed interest in banking stocks.

Banking stocks emerged as the frontrunners, leading the market to reverse the previous losses and chart a path of growth.

At the forefront of the trading activity were some of the industry’s heavyweights, with Guaranty Trust Holding Company taking the lead.

Guaranty Trust Holding Company led with 245,459,806 shares valued at N7.94 billion that exchanged hands. This was followed by FBN Holdings, which recorded 45,468,550 units estimated at N1.09 billion.

Access Holdings also trailed FBN Holdings with 42,872,090 units evaluated at N727.95 million.

United Bank for Africa (UBA) witnessed considerable activity as well, with 22,451,746 units of its stocks worth N537.74 million traded.

Breaking away from the banking trend momentarily was Transcorp Plc, an indigenous conglomerate, which saw significant traction in the market.

The company witnessed 36,077,777 units of its stocks traded, valued at N502.35 million.

The resurgence in banking stocks injected a sense of optimism into the market, leading to a notable uptick in key indices.

The All-Share Index appreciated by 0.35 percent, reaching 98,225.63 points, while the year-to-date return surged to an impressive 31.36 percent.

Also, the market capitalization of listed equities experienced a significant boost, rising by N196 billion to settle at N55.55 trillion.

The positive momentum extended across various sectors, with banking, insurance, and oil & gas sectors experiencing gains of 1.70 percent, 0.15 percent, and 1.07 percent, respectively.

This resurgence underscored the market’s resilience and its ability to rebound swiftly from previous downturns.

Despite pockets of decline observed in the consumer and industrial goods indices, the overall market sentiment remained bullish.

The day’s trading activity painted a picture of enthusiasm, with total deals, volume, and value recording notable increases of 7.30 percent, 99.18 percent, and 193.52 percent, respectively.

In summary, the Nigerian stock market’s rebound, led by banking giants, reflects renewed investor confidence and optimism.

The impressive performance of key players in the banking sector signals a positive trajectory for the market, setting the stage for further growth and stability in the coming sessions.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Exchange Sees 0.05% Uptick After Bearish Streak: Investors Gain N26bn

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After enduring a prolonged period of bearish trading, the Nigerian Exchange has finally witnessed a slight uptick, bringing a glimmer of hope to investors.

The modest increase of 0.05% in the All-Share Index signals a potential reversal of the recent downward trend with investors collectively gaining N26 billion in market value.

In recent days, the local bourse has been grappling with a bearish run, characterized by sell-offs and waning investor interest. Major indexes had faltered, dipping below milestones achieved earlier in the year.

However, Thursday’s trading session brought a much-needed reprieve as the market saw a marginal increase, instilling cautious optimism among market participants.

At the close of trading on Thursday, the All-Share Index edged up by 48 basis points, settling at 98,169.30 points.

Similarly, the market capitalization appreciated by 0.05%, reaching N55.52 trillion. While the increase may seem modest, it marks a significant shift from the downward trajectory that had persisted in previous sessions.

The market movers for the day included stocks of Zenith Bank Plc, Access Holdings, and Transcorp, which contributed to the gains observed.

Transcorp Hotels, Livestock, Tantalizer Plc, Sunu Assurance, and WAPIC led the pack with notable share price increases ranging from 6.15% to 9.75%.

Despite the overall uptrend, the exchange recorded more losers than gainers, reflecting subdued trading activity. Total deals, volume, and value experienced declines, indicating lingering caution among investors.

Sectoral performance was mixed, with the banking and consumer goods indexes witnessing declines, while the insurance index posted gains.

The announcement of corporate earnings and the proposed banking sector recapitalization exercise failed to significantly reignite interest in the market.

While these developments may have influenced investor sentiment to some extent, broader economic factors and global market conditions continue to shape investor behavior.

Zenith Bank emerged as the most traded security by volume and value, further underlining its significance in the market.

With 48.49 million units valued at N1.77 billion exchanged in 577 deals, Zenith Bank remains a key player in driving trading activity on the exchange.

As the market navigates through uncertainties and volatility, investors remain cautiously optimistic about future prospects.

While the recent uptick offers a glimmer of hope, market participants are keenly observing developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly, cognizant of the dynamic nature of the financial markets.

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