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Nigeria’s Debt Profile Rises to N38 Trillion in September 2021

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U.S Dollar - Investors King

No end in sight for Nigeria’s rising debt profile despite the country’s vast natural resources and human capital. A recent report from the country’s Debt Management Office (DMO) revealed that Nigeria’s total debt rose by N2.5 trillion or 7.2 percent from N35.5 trillion in June 2021 to N38 trillion at the end of September 2021.

On a yearly basis, total public debt grew by 17.9 percent or N5.8 trillion and it is equivalent to 24.9 percent of 2020 nominal GDP. This is within the DMO’s target of 40 percent of GDP for the period 2020 – 2023 and domestic to external debt ratio of 70:30.

In the first nine months of 2021, Nigeria spent N2.5 trillion on debt servicing payments, N1.7 trillion was spent on servicing domestic debts and N755 billion spent on external debt servicing.

As at end-September, total domestic debt was N22.4 trillion. This constitutes 59.0 percent of total public debt. On a quarterly basis, the FGN domestic debt increased by 3.1 percent from N17.6 trillion at end-Q2 to N18.2 trillion at end-Q3 ’21. This was largely due to increased issuances of FGN bond and Nigerian treasury bills (NTBs) over the three months.

In terms of composition, FGN bonds and NTBs make up 93 percent of total domestic debt while FGN sukuk, treasury bond, savings bond, green bond and promissory notes make up the remaining 7 percent.

The share of states and the FCT’s domestic debt increased by 1.9 percent from N4.1 trillion at end of June to N4.2 trillion at end-September, with Lagos (N532 billion), Akwa Ibom (N234 billion) and Rivers (N226 billion), as the most indebted states.

We note that with the securitization of the ways and means advances from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the domestic debt stock is likely to increase. As at end-October ‘21, the stock of CBN’s ways and means advances stood at N12.8trn.

During the period under review, external debt stock stood at USD37.9 billion (N15.6 trillion). On a quarterly basis, the external debt increased by 13.4 percent from USD33.5 billion (N13.7 trillion) at end-Q2. This was largely due to the USD4 billion Eurobonds issued by the FGN in September ’21 as part of the new external borrowing in the 2021 appropriation act.

Multilateral and bilateral loans make up the bulk of the external debt at 59.7 percent, while commercial loans and promissory notes make up the remaining 40.2 percent. We note that the current external debt stock constitutes 40.9% of total public debt and this exceeds the 30 percent target set by the DMO.

Turning to debt service costs, domestic debt servicing increased by 150 percent from N322 billion in Q2 ’21 to N808 billion in Q3 ’21 and external debt servicing increased by 74.2 percent from USD298.9 million (N123.8 billion) in Q2 ’21 to USD520.7 million (N215.7 billion) at end-Q3 ’21.

Although the National assembly has recently approved external borrowings of USD5.8 billion from multilateral and bilateral sources under the FGN’s 2018-2020 external borrowing (rolling) plan. We understand that the FGN is unlikely to issue additional Eurobonds this year.

The 2022 FGN budget has been pegged at N16.4 trillion. The FGN aims to earn N10.13 trillion to fund the budget and the resulting deficit of N6.3 trillion is expected to be financed by new external and domestic borrowings, privatisation proceeds, and multilateral /bilateral loan drawdowns.

As a percentage of total GDP, Nigeria’s public debt burden is relatively low compared to peer emerging market economies. The onus is on the FGN to make productive use of the borrowed funds to improve GDP growth and by extension, ensure economic development.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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