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Moody’s Downgrades Dangote Cement to B2, Says Company Exposed to Currency Risk

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Dangote Cement - Investors King

Moody’s Investors Service on Friday downgraded Dangote Cement plc (“DCP”) long term corporate family rating (CFR) to B2 from B1, the national scale long term corporate family rating to Aa3.ng from Aa2.ng and the probability of default rating (PDR) to B2-PD from B1-PD.

At the same time, Moody’s has affirmed the (P)B2 local currency rating and Aa3.ng national scale rating assigned to the NGN300 billion domestic medium-term note program (DMTN) and the B2 local currency and Aa3.ng NSR to the senior unsecured notes issued by DCP. Moody’s has also changed the outlook to negative from ratings under review.

“The downgrade of the CFR to B2 is driven by the increase in dollar debt in DCP’s capital structure which was not initially contemplated in the B1 rating. This exposes DCP to increased currency risks because most its cash flow are generated in naira and other African currencies and the fact that all the dollar debt has maturities of less than a year. This currency risk is captured under Moody’s B2 foreign currency ceiling of Nigeria which is limiting the ability of DCP to be rated higher”, say Dion Bate (Vice President – Senior Analyst), the lead analyst for Dangote Cement.

“The downgrade however is not driven by concerns around the cement fundamentals in Africa or the business, which continues to perform strongly”, adds Mr. Bate. This rating action concludes the review for downgrade, which was initiated on 5 August 2021.

The downgrade to B2 reflects the increased amount of dollar debt to around 230 billion naira equivalent, representing 43% of total debt as of 30 September 2021, up from 71bn naira equivalent in 2019. While DCP has begun generating dollar revenue through exports and repatriations of dollar cash flow from its other African operations, it is still reliant on the Central Bank of Nigeria for dollars, which remains restricted. The high proportion of dollar debt in the capital structure exposes DCP to currency risk, which included among others access to dollars and naira weakness, that is captured by Nigeria’s foreign currency ceiling of B2 instead of Nigeria’s Ba3 local currency ceiling assigned by Moody’s. Under Moody’s methodology approach, Nigeria’s B2 foreign-currency ceiling, limits the ability of a domestic corporate, that has meaningful foreign currency obligations, to be rated higher which constrains a company’s rating. It is management’s expectation that over time as dollar export revenue grow (currently around 4% of revenue) DCP would be able to internally fund its demand for dollars and eliminate the need for dollar facilities.

The affirmation of the B2 ratings assigned to the DMTN program and senior unsecured notes reflect Moody’s position that the previous notching considerations of one notch below the CFR is no longer appropriate. This is because of the low secured debt in the capital structure, sustainably low group leverage and high unencumbered asset base in Nigeria that provide sufficient recovery protection for senior unsecured lenders.

DCP’s B2 and Aa3.ng CFR’s are supported by the company’s (1) strong market presence in Nigeria and other African markets in which it operates; (2) high gross margins of above 60% on a Moody’s-adjusted basis; (3) low leverage of 0.9x, as measured by gross debt/EBITDA, and high interest coverage of 10.8 x, as measured by EBIT/interest expense, for the last 12 months (LTM) ending 30 June 2021; and (4) prudent financial policies that ensure credit metrics remain strong through operating and project build cycles.

The ratings also factor (1) the relatively small scale level of cement production when compared to global peers, with production of 25.7 million tons (mt) for 2020; (2) single product exposure being cement; (3) a concentration of production in Nigeria (Government of, B2 negative), representing 70% of revenue for LTM 30 September 2021; (4) high reliance on short term debt funding and an aggressive dividend policy that exposes the company to liquidity risk.

DCP’s liquidity profile is adequate but is exposed to ongoing refinancing risks because of the large portion of short term debt equal to NGN343 billion, representing 64% of total debt as of 30 September 2021. While DCP has strong cash generation with a cash balance of N179.1 billion, it pay large dividends (N272 billion in May 2021) which temporarily weakens its liquidity. Moody’s recognises that DCP has a good track record of accessing the local funding market given its low leverage, blue chip corporate status in Nigeria and strong local banking relations. Furthermore, its main shareholder DIL could support DCP as done in the past, if required.

The negative outlook mirrors the Nigerian sovereign’s negative outlook, reflecting our view that DCP’s credit quality is predominantly tied to the economic and political developments in Nigeria. The negative outlook further reflects DCP’s reliance on short-term funding and its high annual dividends, which expose the company to a potential liquidity shortfall over the next 12-18 months.

Globally, the building materials sector has high credit exposure to environmental risks. The cement industry is energy intensive and the mining and manufacturing process for cement production consume large amounts of coal, electricity and water. DCP’s production meets domestic emission standards and the company has implemented measures to improve energy efficiencies and transition to cleaner natural gas for its power needs.

Factors That Could Lead to an Upgrade or Further Downgrade of Dangote Cement

A rating upgrade is unlikely, because DCP’s B2 rating is constrained by the Nigerian government’s foreign currency ceiling of B2. Because of the high revenue contribution from its domestic operations, there is a strong link between DCP’s rating and the sovereign rating, which prevents DCP from being rated higher than the foreign currency ceiling of Nigeria. If the sovereign rating or foreign currency ceiling were to be upgraded, DCP would need to demonstrate a track record of good liquidity management for an upgrade to be considered.

DCP’s ratings are likely to be downgraded in the case of a downgrade of the Nigerian government rating or foreign currency ceiling. A downgrade could also occur if (1) DCP’s liquidity is weak; (2) the Nigerian government introduces special taxes, levies or other punitive measures that negatively impact DCP’s profit or cash flow, such that operating margins fall below 20% on a sustained basis and adjusted debt/EBITDA trends above 4.0x or adjusted EBIT/interest expense trends below 2.5x; and (3) DCP moves away from its policy of matching the currency of its underlying cash flow with that of its debt.

 

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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DLM Trust Unveils DLM Single Asset Trust

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DLM Capital Group

DLM Trust, a subsidiary of DLM Capital Group is thrilled to announce the launch of DLM Single Asset Trust.

The model is a variant of the Living Trust construct that allows for a groundbreaking solution for individuals or Corporations seeking to settle assets into a trust, for the benefit of themselves and their chosen beneficiaries.

The DLM Single Asset Trust guarantees that peoples’ assets are protected and managed in accordance with their intentions by operating under the tenets of trust, security, and careful management. The DLM SAT offers a novel approach to trust services by fusing state-of-the-art technology with knowledgeable advice to enable people and families effortlessly manage their assets.

DLM SAT enables individuals, often referred to as Settlors, to create a single asset trust that will serve both their own and their designated beneficiaries’ purposes. The Trust Fund may be started using the Settlor’s assets/funds and then expanded with future contributions in accordance with the Settlor’s goals. Only authorised individuals, including the settlor, can access the trust because of its strong independent and confidentiality level. DLM Trust Company holds the Fund in trust and manages it for the benefit of the Settlor and designated Beneficiaries.

In a statement, MD of DLM Trust, Lola Razaaq commented on the introduction of the DLM Single Asset Trust, stating that it is a means of establishing a timeline for legacy preservation. “The DLM SAT is our newest offering, and we are thrilled to announce this important milestone for DLM Trust.” The aim of our organisation is to equip people and families with the necessary resources and assistance to safeguard and maintain their heritage for future generations. “Furthermore, we are transforming the concept of future planning with DLM Single Asset Trust.” she said.

DLM Trust Company Limited is registered with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and incorporated under the Companies and Allied Matters Act to provide trust services to individuals, corporations, sub-sovereign entities. As always, strategic thinking and innovation will be combined by DLM Trust Company to offer its clients best-in-class services. Since its founding, DLM Trust has worked on a variety of creative and unique transactions, including securitizations, private and public bonds.

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Shell’s $2.4bn Asset Sale Under Close Scrutiny

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Shell

The proposed $2.4 billion asset sale by energy giant Shell to Renaissance Africa Energy has become the focal point of intense scrutiny as the Federal Government of Nigeria aims to ensure transparency and regulatory compliance in the transaction.

The deal has sparked widespread interest and raised questions about its implications for the country’s energy landscape.

Shell, a prominent British energy major with a century-long history of operations in the Niger Delta, announced in January its intention to divest its Nigerian onshore subsidiary, Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited, to Renaissance Africa Energy.

This landmark agreement, if finalized, would represent a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s energy sector dynamics.

Renaissance Africa Energy, a consortium comprising five companies, including four Nigerian-based exploration and production firms and an international energy group, has confirmed its participation in the deal.

The consortium’s involvement underscores its strategic positioning to capitalize on Nigeria’s vast energy resources and contribute to the country’s economic development.

The proposed transaction, however, is contingent upon approvals from the Federal Government of Nigeria and other relevant regulatory bodies.

To ensure adherence to regulatory protocols and safeguard national interests, the government has initiated a comprehensive due diligence process, commencing with a high-level meeting held on Monday.

Parties involved in the deal, alongside officials from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), convened in Abuja for a thorough examination of the transaction details.

Gbenga Komolafe, the Chief Executive of NUPRC, outlined the government’s objective to conclude the divestment exercise by June, underscoring the importance of timely and meticulous evaluation.

Komolafe revealed that the government has enlisted the expertise of two globally renowned consulting firms, S&P Global and the BCG Group, to facilitate the due diligence process.

These consultants, recognized for their proficiency in financial analysis and regulatory compliance, will collaborate with NUPRC to ensure that the transaction aligns with industry best practices and regulatory standards.

The due diligence meeting served as a forum to discuss the proposed divestment of Shell’s participating interests in the SPDC JV assets, which are currently operated by the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigerian Limited.

These assets, awarded as Oil Exploration Licence-1 in 1949, have played a pivotal role in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon industry, contributing significantly to the nation’s crude oil and gas output.

With an estimated total reserve of nearly 5 billion barrels of oil and extensive gas resources, the SPDC JV assets hold immense strategic importance for Nigeria’s energy security and economic prosperity.

However, as Nigeria seeks to optimize its energy sector operations, the selection of a responsible and capable successor to manage these assets remains paramount.

As discussions continue and the due diligence process unfolds, stakeholders remain optimistic about the prospects of the deal.

Representatives from Shell, Renaissance Africa Energy, and regulatory authorities expressed their commitment to ensuring a transparent and seamless transition, with the overarching goal of advancing Nigeria’s energy sector agenda.

The outcome of the scrutiny surrounding Shell’s $2.4 billion asset sale will not only shape the future of Nigeria’s energy landscape but also demonstrate the country’s commitment to fostering a conducive investment environment and promoting sustainable development in the oil and gas sector.

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NNPC and ARPHL Collaborate to Expand Port Harcourt Refinery to 310,000bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has joined forces with the African Refinery Port Harcourt Limited (ARPHL) to expand the Port Harcourt Refinery.

The collaboration entails ARPHL’s subscription of a 15% equity stake in the Port Harcourt Refining Company, a move aimed at augmenting the refinery’s daily production capacity from 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 310,000bpd.

The agreement, finalized at a signing ceremony held at the NNPC Towers in Abuja, underscores the commitment of both parties to bolstering Nigeria’s downstream oil and gas sector.

Managing Director of African Refinery Port Harcourt Limited, Omotayo Adebajo, and NNPC’s Executive Vice-President, Downstream, Adedapo Segun, sealed the deal, marking a pivotal moment in the nation’s quest for energy self-sufficiency.

According to statements released by NNPC and ARPHL, the subscription agreement represents a crucial step towards expanding Nigeria’s refining capacity and addressing the nation’s persistent reliance on imported petroleum products.

The proposed increment of 100,000bpd in the Port Harcourt Refinery’s capacity is poised to significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel, fostering economic resilience and energy security.

Speaking on the collaboration, NNPC’s Executive Vice-President highlighted the strategic significance of co-locating the proposed additional refining capacity with the existing facilities at the Port Harcourt Refinery complex.

The move not only optimizes existing infrastructure but also underscores NNPC’s commitment to modernizing and revitalizing Nigeria’s refining sector.

In a similar vein, Tola Ayo-Adeyemi, Group Executive Director, Legal and Regulatory Compliance at African Refinery Group, emphasized the transformative impact of the collaboration on Nigeria’s energy landscape.

He highlighted the ARPHL refinery project’s position as the largest private refinery in Nigeria’s South-South and South-East geopolitical regions, underscoring its pivotal role in driving regional development and economic growth.

The groundbreaking ceremony for the ARPHL refinery project, scheduled for later this year, symbolizes a significant milestone in Nigeria’s journey towards energy independence.

With construction slated to commence in 2025 and commercial operations targeted for 2027, the project represents a beacon of hope for Nigeria’s refining sector, promising to deliver over 30 million liters of various petroleum products daily upon completion.

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