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Gold’s 10-Year Return Less than 2%; Global Demand for Investment Gold Plunged by 60% YoY

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During times of risk and market volatility, investors look for high-quality assets that can save their capital and minimize losses. History has shown many times that gold works as a good store of value in such times of uncertainty. However, the 10-year return for gold investments plunged deep below investors’ expectations.

According to data presented by BlockArabia, after turning negative in August, gold’s 10-year return rose to just under 2% this week.

A Sharp fall After Fantastic Return Rates in 2019 and 2020

For the last 50 years, gold has been the perfect stock market hedge, with its most impressive performance in the 1970s and 2000s. From 2000 to 2009, during the worst decade for the S&P 500 after the 1930s, the S&P 500’s annual return was just over 1%. At the same time, the gold investment return amounted to 18% per year throughout the entire decade.

According to St. Louis Fed data, positive returns on gold investments continued in most years during the next decade. In 2002, gold’s annual investment return hit 25.6%. Five years later, this figure jumped to almost 32%. After fantastic 2009 and 2010, the following years witnessed a negative trend, with the annual investment return for the precious metal reaching the deepest point of -27% in 2013.

Four years later, in 2017, the annual investment return recovered to 12.7%. Finally, in 2020, gold became an asset with the second-highest yearly investment return behind silver, bringing an average return of almost 25% that year, much more US stocks and corporate bonds or EAFE stocks.

However, statistics show that 2021 witnessed a sharp fall, with gold’s YTD investment return plunging to -7.37%.

Although 3-year and 5-year investment returns for the precious metal remained high, amounting to 46% and 31% as of this week, respectively, the 10-year return dropped significantly over the last two months. On August 10, it amounted to -6.56% and then slipped to -7.54% in the first days of September. Statistics show this figure manager to recover a bit a hit 1.97% on October 4th.

Global Demand for Investment Gold Plunged by 60% YoY

Investors see gold as a ‘safe haven’ in times of market volatility, just like those triggered by the COVID-19. That is why global demand for investment gold surged to all-time highs last year.

In 2019, before the COVID-19 hit, the global demand for investment gold amounted to an average of 300 metric tons per quarter. By the end of March 2020, this figure jumped by 93% to 556 metric tons. The increasing trend continued in the second quarter of the year, with global demand for investment gold hitting over 584 metric tons, almost double the amount in the same quarter a year before that.

The World Gold Council data show the global demand for gold for investment purposes hit a record-breaking 1,140 metric tons in the first half of 2020, the highest figure so far.

However, the following months have witnessed a noticeable downsizing trend, with the figure falling to 138 metric tons in Q4 2020. Although global demand for investment gold recovered and hit 465.2 metric tons in the first half of 2021, that is still 60% less than in the same period a year ago.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Gold Soars as Fed Signals Patience

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Gold emerged as a star performer as the Federal Reserve adopted a more patient stance, sending the precious metal soaring to new heights.

Amidst a backdrop of uncertainty, gold’s ascent mirrored investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets and reflected their interpretation of the central bank’s cautious approach.

Following the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current levels, gold prices surged toward $2,330 an ounce in early Asian trade, building on a 1.5% gain from the previous session – the most significant one-day increase since mid-April.

The dovish tone struck by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the announcement provided the impetus for gold’s rally, as he downplayed the prospects of imminent rate hikes while underscoring the need for further evidence of cooling inflation before considering adjustments to borrowing costs.

This tempered outlook from the Fed, which emphasized patience and data dependence, bolstered gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Investors interpreted the central bank’s stance as a signal of continued support for accommodative monetary policies, providing a tailwind for the precious metal.

Simultaneously, the Japanese yen surged more than 3% against the dollar, sparking speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.

This move further weakened the dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of gold to investors seeking refuge from currency volatility.

Gold’s ascent in recent months has been underpinned by a confluence of factors, including robust central bank purchases, strong demand from Asian markets – particularly China – and geopolitical tensions ranging from conflicts in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East.

These dynamics have propelled gold’s price upwards by approximately 13% this year, culminating in a record high last month.

At 9:07 a.m. in Singapore, spot gold was up 0.3% to $2,326.03 an ounce, with silver also experiencing gains as it rose towards $27 an ounce.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index concurrently fell by 0.3%, further underscoring the inverse relationship between the dollar’s strength and gold’s allure.

However, amidst the fervor surrounding gold’s surge, palladium found itself trading below platinum after dipping below its sister metal for the first time since February.

The erosion of palladium’s long-standing premium was attributed to a pessimistic outlook for demand in gasoline-powered cars, highlighting the nuanced dynamics within the precious metals market.

As gold continues its upward trajectory, investors remain attuned to evolving macroeconomic indicators and central bank policy shifts, navigating a landscape defined by uncertainty and volatility.

In this environment, the allure of gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to endure, providing solace to investors seeking stability amidst turbulent times.

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Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Gold Steadies After Initial Gains on Reports of Israel’s Strikes in Iran

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Gold, often viewed as a haven during times of geopolitical uncertainty, exhibited a characteristic surge in response to reports of Israel’s alleged strikes in Iran, only to stabilize later as tensions simmered.

The yellow metal’s initial rally came on the heels of escalating tensions in the Middle East, with concerns mounting over a potential wider conflict.

Spot gold soared as much as 1.6% in early trading as news circulated regarding Israel’s purported strikes on targets in Iran.

This surge, reaching a high of $2,400 a ton, reflected the nervousness pervading global markets amidst the saber-rattling between the two nations.

However, as the day progressed, media reports from both countries appeared to downplay the impact and severity of the alleged strikes, contributing to a moderation in gold’s gains.

Analysts noted that while the initial spike was fueled by fears of heightened conflict, subsequent assessments suggesting a less severe outcome helped calm investor nerves, leading to a stabilization in gold prices.

Traders had been bracing for a potential Israeli response following Iran’s missile and drone attack over the weekend, raising concerns about a retaliatory spiral between the two adversaries.

Reports of an explosion in Iran’s central city of Isfahan further added to the atmosphere of uncertainty, prompting flight suspensions and exacerbating market jitters.

In addition to geopolitical tensions, gold’s rally in recent months has been underpinned by other factors, including expectations of US interest rate cuts, sustained central bank buying, and robust consumer demand, particularly in China.

Despite the initial surge followed by stabilization, gold remains sensitive to developments in the Middle East and broader geopolitical dynamics.

Investors continue to monitor the situation closely for any signs of escalation or de-escalation, recognizing gold’s role as a traditional safe haven in times of uncertainty.

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