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GCR Affirms Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company Limited’s National Scale Long-term Issuer Rating of AAA(NG); Outlook Stable

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Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company - Investors King

GCR Ratings (“GCR”) has affirmed the national scale long term rating of AAA(NG) accorded to Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company Limited, with a Stable Outlook.

Rated Entity Rating class Rating scale Rating Outlook
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee company Limited Long Term issuer National AAA(NG) Stable

Rating rationale

The rating is underpinned by the uniqueness of Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company Limited’s (“InfraCredit” or “the company”) operations as a credit guarantee provider, and the company’s strong capitalisation, liquidity, and asset quality position, albeit counterbalanced by its self-regulated status.

Operational uniqueness offers some monopolistic privileges to InfraCredit, with no direct competitor in the country presently. However, the company reflects low level of diversification by product and customer base, and its operations are limited to Nigeria. Earnings growth was mainly fuelled by FX gains in FY20 as the COVID-19 pandemic impacted on finalisation of potential mandates. We expect the gradual normalisation in the economy to result in a material growth in earnings in FY21 and FY22 respectively post adjustment for FX gains. Management & Governance is a neutral ratings factor.

Overall capitalisation is a significant rating positive. A moderate negative adjustment was made due to the low core equity component of the qualifying tier-1 capital, with the GCR calculated core capital ratio standing above 20% at FY20 and year to date but expected to moderate to around 16-17% in FY21 and FY22. Revenue is considered stable, given the recurring nature and particularly the annuity-like nature of guarantee and monitoring fees, which are usually amortised and earned over the life of the guaranteed transaction, although counterbalanced by increased exposures to market sensitive income, which constituted 42.7% of total operating income in FY20 (FY19: 0.5%), thus constituting a moderate rating negative.

Risk is viewed to be somewhat contained through adoption of a stringent underwriting criteria. So far, there has been no payment default under any of the guaranteed transactions, hence no recourse to InfraCredit for repayment under any of its guaranteed transactions to date. However, note is taken of the concentrated nature of the deal portfolio (comprising four deals as at May 2021), which somewhat elevates the company’s risk profile. The USD denominated cash and liquid asset portfolio (bank balance, money market placements, Eurobonds) and due to related parties, and other financial liabilities also expose the company to foreign exchange risk, which appears to be well contained through hedging. Asset quality metrics are expected to remain sound in the foreseeable future.

Funding and liquidity is assessed at high level, with the funding base comprising mainly equity, preference shares, subordinated long term borrowings and contingent capital, all considered highly stable. Concentration risk inherent in the limited borrowing counterparties is offset by funding stability, with the unexpired tenor of the borrowings ranging from seven to nine years. The GCR calculated long-term funding ratio of 80% and 111% at FY19 and FY20 respectively is considered strong and expected to remain robust over the next 12-18 months.

Outlook statement

The stable outlook reflects GCR’s expectation that InfraCredit would ensure strong capitalisation characterised by significant core equity components, and maintain strong asset quality despite the expected rapid guaranteed portfolio growth and the strains in the operating environment.

Rating triggers

A rating downgrade could follow deterioration in asset quality, a downgrade in the ratings of any of the contingent capital providers, sustained pressure on earnings, as well a significant rise in leverage such that weakens the GCR total leverage ratio to below satisfactory level (less than 20%).

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Banking Sector

Central Bank of Nigeria Mandates Cybersecurity Levy on Transactions

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

In a bid to bolster cybersecurity measures within the financial sector, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued a directive mandating banks and financial institutions to implement a cybersecurity levy on transactions.

The circular, released on Monday, outlines the commencement of this levy within two weeks from the date of issuance.

According to the circular, all commercial, merchant, non-interest, and payment service banks, as well as other financial institutions, mobile money operators, and payment service providers, are instructed to enforce this cybersecurity levy.

The directive is a follow-up to previous communications dated June 25, 2018, and October 5, 2018, emphasizing compliance with the Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, Etc.) Act 2015.

The levy is to be applied at the point of electronic transfer origination and subsequently deducted by the financial institution.

This deducted amount will then be remitted to the designated Nigerian Cybersecurity Fund (NCF) account domiciled at the CBN. Customers will see a deduction reflected in their account statement with the narration, ‘Cybersecurity Levy’.

Exemptions from this levy include certain transactions such as loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, and intra-bank transfers among others.

The CBN aims to streamline and fortify cybersecurity efforts across the financial sector through the implementation of this levy.

This move by the CBN aligns with recent efforts to enhance regulatory oversight and mitigate risks within the financial ecosystem.

It follows closely after directives barring fintechs from onboarding new customers and warnings against engaging in cryptocurrency transactions.

Also, the Federal Government’s directive for the deduction of stamp duty charges on mortgaged-backed loans and bonds demonstrates a broader push for fiscal transparency and regulatory compliance.

The introduction of the cybersecurity levy underscores the CBN’s commitment to safeguarding digital transactions and ensuring the integrity of Nigeria’s financial infrastructure amidst evolving cyber threats.

As financial institutions gear up for implementation, the levy is poised to play a pivotal role in fortifying the nation’s cybersecurity resilience in an increasingly digitized landscape.

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Pension

PFAs Posted Decent Growth – Coronation Economic Note

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pension funds - Investors King

According to the latest monthly report released by Nigeria’s Pension Commission (PENCOM), the assets under management (AUM) of the regulated pension industry increased by +26.2% y/y to N19.7trn.

Meanwhile on an m/m basis, the AUM decline marginally by -0.5%.

This marks the first decline since September ’22. Notably, FGN debt securities accounted for 62% of the total AUM in March ’24. Meanwhile, other asset classes such as private equities, real estate, and infrastructure funds, accounted for 0.4%, 1.4%, and 0.8% of total AUM, respectively.

Total FGN debt securities held by the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) increased by +19.7%
y/y but declined marginally by -1.4% m/m.

Specifically, we note that the FGN bond instruments held by the PFAs increased by +17.2% y/y to N11.5trn, but declined by -2.4% m/m, on the back of a 10-year tenure FGN bond maturity (N719.9bn). The FGN bonds account for 58% of the total AUM.

FGN bonds remain attractive due to its lower risk profile and elevated yields. It is worth noting that the average FGN bond yield increased by +219bps m/m as at end-March ‘24.

The PENCOM report shows that NTBs held by PFAs grew by +120% y/y and increased by +42.5% m/m to N407.6bn in March ’24. We note that the average NTB yield increased by +250bps m/m as at end-March’24.

This asset class accounted for just 2.1% of the total AUM in the same month.

Meanwhile, State government securities held by the PFAs increased by 64.1% y/y to N266.2bn in March ‘24.

It is worth highlighting that domestic equity holdings surged by 99.6% y/y and 8.7% m/m to N2.1trn in the same period, accounting for 10.6% of the total AUM in March ‘24 compared with 9.7% in February ’24. The NGX-all-share index (NGX-ASI) rose by +90.6% y/y and +4.6% during the same period.

Furthermore, YTD (28-March ’24) return on index rose by +18.1% to close at 39.8% from 33.7% in February ’24.

Recently, the market has shown a bearish trajectory as the NGX-ASI declined by -6.1% m/m as at end-April ‘24, partly, on the back of relatively weak corporate earnings amid inflationary conditions. Given expectations of higher yields in the fixed income market on the back of continuous tightening or a hold stance of the CBN at the next MPC meeting, PFAs are likely to reallocate a greater portion of pension assets to fixed income securities.

According to PENCOM, the total pension contributions since inception remitted to the Individual Retirement Savings Account (RSA) increased by +17.3% y/y to N9.9trn as at end-December ‘23 compared with N8.5trn recorded as at end-December ‘22. Remittance from the public sector accounts for 52%, while private sector accounts for 48% of the total pension contributions.

This can be partly attributed to improvement in the efforts to expand pension coverage.

Notably, PENCOM added a total number of 8,927 micro pension contributors in Q4 ’23 bringing the total number of registered MPCs in the Micro pension plan from inception to 114,382 as at end-December ’23 from 89,327 as at end-December ’22.

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Banking Sector

GTCO Plc’s Profit Before Tax Grows by 587.5% to N509.35 Billion in Q1, 2024

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GTCO Commemorates Listing on Nigerian Exchange - Investors King

Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) Plc, one of Nigeria’s leading financial institutions, has unveiled its first quarter (Q1) financial results for the period ending March 31, 2024.

According to the report submitted to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX), GTCO recorded a 587.5% growth in profit before tax (PBT) to N509.35 billion.

This substantial increase in pre-tax profit represents a significant jump from the N74.089 billion reported in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The financial statement also revealed a 227.93% rise in income tax to N52.213 billion, compared to N15.922 billion in the same period of 2023.

As a result, GTCO’s profit after tax (PAT) for the first quarter of 2024 rose to N457.134 billion, an exceptional growth of 685.9% from N58.167 billion recorded in the first quarter of the previous year.

The strong performance of GTCO can be attributed to several key factors. The Group’s loan book increased by 21.9% rising from N2.48 trillion recorded in December 2023 to N3.02 trillion by March 2024.

Similarly, deposit liabilities grew by 26.0% from N7.55 trillion in December 2023 to N9.51 trillion in March 2024.

Despite the challenging economic environment, GTCO’s balance sheet remained well-structured, diversified, and resilient.

Total assets closed at an impressive N13.0 trillion while shareholders’ funds stood solid at N2.0 trillion.

Commenting on the outstanding financial results, Mr. Segun Agbaje, the Group Chief Executive Officer of Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc, expressed optimism about the future.

He said the robust performance across all business verticals reaffirmed the value of the Holding Company Structure.

“Our first quarter results reflect the unfolding value of what we have created in all our business verticals through the Holding Company Structure – from Banking and Payments to Funds Management and Pension,” said Mr. Agbaje.

“We are positioned to compete effectively on all fronts and fulfill all our customers’ needs under a unified, thriving financial ecosystem.”

The growth in profitability underscores GTCO’s resilience, strategic focus, and unwavering commitment to delivering superior value to its stakeholders amidst evolving market dynamics.

As the Group continues to leverage its strengths and innovative capabilities, it remains well-positioned to navigate the ever-changing landscape of the financial services industry with confidence and resilience.

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