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Riding the Bull Wisely – By Marc Van de Walle

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The year began amidst a raging bull market. Global equities have made up all the post-pandemic losses and are up 85% (as at 7 May 2021) since their March 2020 lows. Yet, our data shows many investors have missed the bull run altogether or are significantly underinvested, waiting for the ‘right’ opportunity to re-enter. Those who did stay invested through the volatility or re-entered the market in 2020 have a slightly different problem (‘Should I sell?’).

It is safe to say that most of us belong to one of these categories. History shows there are time-tested methods to deal with these challenges and earn a respectable return over the long term.

To tackle the last problem first (‘Should I sell?’), we believe it would be imprudent for investors who have ridden the bull market thus far to cash out. We do not expect a major bear market to develop, at least in the next year, given accelerating global growth and corporate earnings expectations and extremely loose policy settings. We expect economies and businesses to gradually return to normalcy by the end of the year as the pace of vaccinations picks up worldwide.

Stay well-diversified

Based on decades of market history, it is hard to make a case for an equity bear market without an accompanying economic recession. Therefore, the risk of trying to time when to exit the market before any short-term correction and re-enter at the bottom are greater than staying invested (since the investor could lose some of the best days in the market by staying out). For this group, the best course would be to ensure that they stay well-diversified across asset classes and sectors and rebalance their portfolios if they have strayed significantly away from their risk tolerance.

Cost of inaction 

For those who have stayed out of the market before or after the pandemic, the challenge of when to get back in is seemingly much harder, given that equities are now at record highs and there are increased concerns about a short-term correction. Often, their hesitation stems from a desire to perfectly time their re-entry. In our experience as wealth managers, this is the single most common investment mistake.

For this group, the salient point to consider is the cost of inaction. A simple diversified portfolio (50% global stocks and 50% global bonds) for buy-and-hold investors has returned close to 6% per year over the past 10 years, even after taking into account six 10%+ equity market pullbacks, including the 34% correction at the height of the pandemic in March 2020. At that rate of return, USD10,000 invested a decade ago would have built a roughly USD18,000 nest egg. An equivalent savings deposit paying, let’s say, 1% interest would have grown to only about USD11,000, not even keeping pace with inflation.

The rules of investing 

This example brings us to the seven key rules of saving and investing wisely:

  1. Prepare an investment plan based on your financial goals, risk tolerance and time horizon;
  2. Set aside funds for short-term exigencies in cash;
  3. Invest most of the remaining funds (say 80%) in a core portfolio broadly diversified across asset classes, geographical regions and industry sectors. This will help limit the downside from unexpected events (because they will happen over our lifetime!);
  4. Stay invested through market cycles, since time and the miracle of compounding returns is your friend;
  5. Rebalance the portfolio at regular intervals (say twice a year) to bring it back to your risk tolerance;
  6. Use the remaining funds (at most 20%) – let’s call it ‘funny money’ – for short-term trading (for those who want the thrill). Make sure this is based on sound research and not the latest fad, and done with a cool head – not be too greedy at the top and panicky at the bottom (using stop-losses would help remove personal biases and limit downside risks for this part of the portfolio); and
  7. Finally – and this is the crucial part – follow the investment plan! Procrastination, as we saw above, is the greatest enemy of the investor.

For some investors, putting all funds to work immediately could be psychologically challenging. For this group, setting up a pre-determined regular investment plan would remove any personal biases. This so- called dollar-cost averaging strategy would help the investor to automatically benefit from any market upside, while allowing the investor buy cheaper if the market pulls back along the away. This strategy could include pre-determined rules to accelerate purchases in the event of larger-than-expected market drawdowns.

In the long run, the market is always a bull. The above strategy should enable the investor to overcome the downturns, mitigate biases and stay in the game. Afterall, we need to get on the bull before we can ride it.

(Marc Van de Walle is Global Head of Wealth Management at Standard Chartered Bank)

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

NGX Group Unveils Plans for Online Public Offer Platform and African Expansion

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Amidst a backdrop of strategic vision and digital transformation, the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) has unveiled plans to revolutionize capital raising and expand its footprint across the African continent.

At the 63rd Annual General Meeting (AGM) held recently in Lagos, the group disclosed its intent to launch an online platform for public offers while forging ahead with its expansion into new African markets.

The announcement is a significant milestone for the NGX Group, reinforcing its commitment to innovation and growth within the African capital markets.

With a focus on enhancing accessibility and efficiency, the forthcoming online platform for public offers is poised to redefine the capital-raising landscape, providing issuers with a smarter and more streamlined avenue to raise capital.

According to a statement from the group, the platform will facilitate various public offerings, including initial public offerings (IPOs), rights issues, and other offerings, thereby revolutionizing the subscription process and operational workflow in the capital market.

This move underscores NGX Group’s dedication to driving growth and innovation while fostering a conducive environment for capital formation.

Furthermore, the NGX Group’s expansion strategy extends beyond domestic borders, with plans to deepen its presence across the African continent.

The recent acquisition of stakes in Ethiopia’s first-ever securities exchange marked the group’s entry into East Africa, highlighting its commitment to catalyzing growth and innovation within the region’s capital markets.

Commenting on the development, Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman of NGX Group, expressed gratitude to shareholders for their support and emphasized the board’s commitment to steering the company toward greater value creation.

Dr. Kwairanga affirmed the NGX Group’s readiness to capitalize on emerging opportunities, underpinned by positive reforms and forward-looking initiatives.

Echoing Dr. Kwairanga’s sentiments, Mr. Temi Popoola, Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of NGX Group, underscored the pivotal role of technology in driving the company’s future growth trajectory.

Mr. Popoola emphasized the transformative potential of digitalization, which aims to democratize access to public issuances and support capital-raising efforts for companies across Nigeria.

As shareholders approved a N10 billion rights issue, resolutions were passed to increase share capital, signaling confidence in NGX Group’s strategic direction and growth prospects.

The approval paves the way for the company to embark on its expansion initiatives and capitalize on emerging opportunities within the African capital markets.

Looking ahead, NGX Group remains steadfast in its commitment to leveraging technology, innovation, and strategic partnerships to drive sustainable growth and prosperity.

With a clear focus on digital transformation and African expansion, the company is poised to redefine the landscape of capital markets, fostering inclusivity, accessibility, and economic development across the continent.

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Nigerian Stock Market Rebounds, Led by Banking Giants

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The Nigerian stock market rebounded on Tuesday following renewed interest in banking stocks.

Banking stocks emerged as the frontrunners, leading the market to reverse the previous losses and chart a path of growth.

At the forefront of the trading activity were some of the industry’s heavyweights, with Guaranty Trust Holding Company taking the lead.

Guaranty Trust Holding Company led with 245,459,806 shares valued at N7.94 billion that exchanged hands. This was followed by FBN Holdings, which recorded 45,468,550 units estimated at N1.09 billion.

Access Holdings also trailed FBN Holdings with 42,872,090 units evaluated at N727.95 million.

United Bank for Africa (UBA) witnessed considerable activity as well, with 22,451,746 units of its stocks worth N537.74 million traded.

Breaking away from the banking trend momentarily was Transcorp Plc, an indigenous conglomerate, which saw significant traction in the market.

The company witnessed 36,077,777 units of its stocks traded, valued at N502.35 million.

The resurgence in banking stocks injected a sense of optimism into the market, leading to a notable uptick in key indices.

The All-Share Index appreciated by 0.35 percent, reaching 98,225.63 points, while the year-to-date return surged to an impressive 31.36 percent.

Also, the market capitalization of listed equities experienced a significant boost, rising by N196 billion to settle at N55.55 trillion.

The positive momentum extended across various sectors, with banking, insurance, and oil & gas sectors experiencing gains of 1.70 percent, 0.15 percent, and 1.07 percent, respectively.

This resurgence underscored the market’s resilience and its ability to rebound swiftly from previous downturns.

Despite pockets of decline observed in the consumer and industrial goods indices, the overall market sentiment remained bullish.

The day’s trading activity painted a picture of enthusiasm, with total deals, volume, and value recording notable increases of 7.30 percent, 99.18 percent, and 193.52 percent, respectively.

In summary, the Nigerian stock market’s rebound, led by banking giants, reflects renewed investor confidence and optimism.

The impressive performance of key players in the banking sector signals a positive trajectory for the market, setting the stage for further growth and stability in the coming sessions.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Exchange Sees 0.05% Uptick After Bearish Streak: Investors Gain N26bn

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After enduring a prolonged period of bearish trading, the Nigerian Exchange has finally witnessed a slight uptick, bringing a glimmer of hope to investors.

The modest increase of 0.05% in the All-Share Index signals a potential reversal of the recent downward trend with investors collectively gaining N26 billion in market value.

In recent days, the local bourse has been grappling with a bearish run, characterized by sell-offs and waning investor interest. Major indexes had faltered, dipping below milestones achieved earlier in the year.

However, Thursday’s trading session brought a much-needed reprieve as the market saw a marginal increase, instilling cautious optimism among market participants.

At the close of trading on Thursday, the All-Share Index edged up by 48 basis points, settling at 98,169.30 points.

Similarly, the market capitalization appreciated by 0.05%, reaching N55.52 trillion. While the increase may seem modest, it marks a significant shift from the downward trajectory that had persisted in previous sessions.

The market movers for the day included stocks of Zenith Bank Plc, Access Holdings, and Transcorp, which contributed to the gains observed.

Transcorp Hotels, Livestock, Tantalizer Plc, Sunu Assurance, and WAPIC led the pack with notable share price increases ranging from 6.15% to 9.75%.

Despite the overall uptrend, the exchange recorded more losers than gainers, reflecting subdued trading activity. Total deals, volume, and value experienced declines, indicating lingering caution among investors.

Sectoral performance was mixed, with the banking and consumer goods indexes witnessing declines, while the insurance index posted gains.

The announcement of corporate earnings and the proposed banking sector recapitalization exercise failed to significantly reignite interest in the market.

While these developments may have influenced investor sentiment to some extent, broader economic factors and global market conditions continue to shape investor behavior.

Zenith Bank emerged as the most traded security by volume and value, further underlining its significance in the market.

With 48.49 million units valued at N1.77 billion exchanged in 577 deals, Zenith Bank remains a key player in driving trading activity on the exchange.

As the market navigates through uncertainties and volatility, investors remain cautiously optimistic about future prospects.

While the recent uptick offers a glimmer of hope, market participants are keenly observing developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly, cognizant of the dynamic nature of the financial markets.

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