The cocoa market is experiencing an unprecedented surge with prices poised to shatter the $15,000 per ton barrier.

The cocoa industry, already reeling from supply shortages and production declines in key regions, is now facing a frenzy of speculative trading and bullish forecasts.

At the recent World Cocoa Conference in Brussels, nine traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expressed unanimous confidence in the continuation of the cocoa rally.

According to their predictions, New York futures could trade above $15,000 a ton before the year’s end, marking yet another milestone in the relentless ascent of cocoa prices.

The surge in cocoa prices has been fueled by a perfect storm of factors, including production declines in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s largest cocoa producers.

Shortages of cocoa beans have left buyers scrambling for supplies and willing to pay exorbitant premiums, exacerbating the market tightness.

To cope with the supply crunch, Ivory Coast and Ghana have resorted to rolling over contracts totaling around 400,000 tons of cocoa, further exacerbating the scarcity.

Traders are increasingly turning to cocoa stocks held in exchanges in London and New York, despite concerns about their quality, as the shortage of high-quality beans intensifies.

Northon Coimbrao, director of sourcing at chocolatier Natra, noted that quality considerations have taken a backseat for most processors amid the supply crunch, leading them to accept cocoa from exchanges despite its perceived inferiority.

This shift in dynamics is expected to further deplete stocks and provide additional support to cocoa prices.

The cocoa rally has already seen prices surge by about 160% this year, nearing the $12,000 per ton mark in New York.

This meteoric rise has put significant pressure on traders and chocolate makers, who are grappling with rising margin calls and higher bean prices in the physical market.

Despite the challenges posed by soaring cocoa prices, stakeholders across the value chain have demonstrated a willingness to absorb the cost increases.

Jutta Urpilainen, European Commissioner for International Partnerships, noted that the market has been able to pass on price increases from chocolate makers to consumers, highlighting the resilience of the cocoa industry.

However, concerns linger about the eventual impact of the price surge on consumers, with some chocolate makers still covered for supplies.

According to Steve Wateridge, head of research at Tropical Research Services, the full effects of the price increase may take six months to a year to materialize, posing a potential future challenge for consumers.

As the cocoa market continues to navigate uncharted territory all eyes remain on the unfolding developments, with traders, analysts, and industry stakeholders bracing for further volatility and potential record-breaking price levels in the days ahead.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) is looking forward to another significant drop in the price of diesel, with expectations set on a target of N700 per litre.

This anticipation follows recent reductions initiated by the Dangote refinery, which has already seen the price of diesel decrease from over N1,200 to N1,000 per litre.

Hammed Fashola, the National Vice President of IPMAN, expressed this optimism on Wednesday, highlighting the association’s appreciation for the efforts made by the Dangote refinery to make diesel more affordable for consumers.

In an interview, Fashola reiterated IPMAN’s belief that the price of diesel could continue to decrease, especially with the recent rebound of the naira against the dollar.

Fashola stated the removal of various challenges associated with imported diesel, such as shipment costs, customs duties, and taxes, as significant factors contributing to the potential reduction in price.

With diesel now being produced locally, these obstacles have been eliminated, paving the way for lower costs for consumers.

“We still expect that diesel will still come down more. Because if you look at the dollar rate to the naira now, the currency is doing well against the dollar. The exchange rate now is almost N1,000 on the black market. We still expect that the dollar will come down more,” Fashola stated.

The IPMAN boss highlighted the collective support for Dangote and emphasized the importance of making diesel affordable for all citizens. He expressed gratitude for the recent price cuts initiated by the refinery and reiterated the association’s hopes for further reductions to benefit consumers across Nigeria.

Dangote Refinery, which began selling diesel about two weeks ago, has been instrumental in driving down prices. Initially, diesel was priced at N1,600 per litre, but it has since been reduced to N1,000 per litre.

This reduction has been welcomed by both consumers and industry experts, who see it as a positive step towards economic relief and increased economic activities.

Analysts have also weighed in on the potential benefits of lower diesel prices. Economist Femi Oladele highlighted the potential for reduced production costs, which could lead to lower prices for goods and services.

Also, savings in foreign exchange could bolster the nation’s reserves, contributing to economic stability.

Jonathan Thomas, an analyst at Sankore Investment Limited, emphasized the broader impact of fuel prices on the economy.

Lower diesel prices not only benefit consumers but also impact the total cost of production, thereby influencing the general price level of goods and services.

Cocoa futures in New York have reached a historic pinnacle with the most-active contract hitting an all-time high of $11,578 a metric ton in early trading on Friday.

This surge comes amidst a backdrop of challenges in the cocoa industry, including supply chain disruptions, adverse weather conditions, and rising production costs.

Despite these hurdles, the pace of processing in chocolate factories has remained constant, providing a glimmer of hope for chocolate lovers worldwide.

Data released after market close on Thursday revealed that cocoa processing, known as “grinds,” was up in North America during the first quarter, appreciating by 4% compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, processing in Europe only saw a modest decline of about 2%, and Asia experienced a slight decrease.

These processing figures are particularly noteworthy given the current landscape of cocoa prices. Since the beginning of 2024, cocoa futures have more than doubled, reflecting the immense pressure on the cocoa market.

Yet, despite these soaring prices, chocolate manufacturers have managed to maintain their production levels, indicating resilience in the face of adversity.

The surge in cocoa prices can be attributed to a variety of factors, including supply shortages caused by adverse weather conditions in key cocoa-producing regions such as West Africa.

Also, rising demand for chocolate products, particularly premium and artisanal varieties, has contributed to the upward pressure on prices.

While the spike in cocoa prices presents challenges for chocolate manufacturers and consumers alike, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic about the resilience of the cocoa market.

Despite the record-breaking prices, the steady pace of cocoa processing suggests that chocolate lovers can still expect to indulge in their favorite treats, albeit at a higher cost.