The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said Nigeria’s growth prospects will barely exceed its population expansion despite recent economic reforms.

Axel Schimmelpfennig, the IMF’s mission chief to Nigeria, who explained the risks to the nation’s economic outlook during a virtual briefing, acknowledged the strides made in implementing tough economic reforms but stressed that significant challenges persist.

The IMF reaffirmed its forecast of 3.3% economic growth for Nigeria in the current year, slightly up from 2.9% in 2023.

However, Schimmelpfennig revealed that this growth rate merely surpasses population dynamics and signaled a need for accelerated progress to enhance living standards significantly.

While Nigeria has received commendation for measures such as abolishing fuel subsidies and reforming the foreign-exchange regime under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, these reforms have not come without costs.

The drastic depreciation of the naira by 65% has fueled inflation to its highest level in nearly three decades, exacerbating the cost of living for many Nigerians.

The IMF anticipates a moderation of Nigeria’s annual inflation rate to 24% by the year’s end, down from the current 33.2% recorded in March.

However, the organization cautioned that substantial challenges persist, particularly in addressing acute food insecurity affecting millions of Nigerians with up to 19 million categorized as food insecure and a poverty rate of 46% in 2023.

Moreover, the IMF emphasized the importance of maintaining a tight monetary policy stance to curb inflation, preserve exchange rate flexibility, and bolster reserves.

It raised concerns about proposed amendments to the law governing the central bank, fearing that such changes could undermine its autonomy and weaken the institutional framework.

Looking ahead, Nigeria faces several risks, including potential shocks to agriculture and global food prices, which could exacerbate food insecurity.

Also, any decline in oil production would not only impact economic growth but also strain government finances, trade, and inflationary pressures.

The World Bank has said Nigeria’s conditional cash transfer scheme aimed at bolstering household consumption and financial inclusion is largely ineffective.

Despite significant investment and efforts by the Nigerian government, the program has shown minimal impact on the lives of its beneficiaries.

Launched in collaboration with the World Bank in 2016, the cash transfer initiative was designed to provide financial support to vulnerable Nigerians as part of the National Social Safety Nets Project.

However, the latest findings suggest that the program has fallen short of its intended goals.

The World Bank’s research revealed that the cash transfer scheme had little effect on household consumption, financial inclusion, or employment among beneficiaries.

Also, the program’s impact on women’s employment was noted to be minimal, highlighting systemic challenges in achieving gender parity in economic opportunities.

Despite funding a significant portion of the cash transfer program, the World Bank found no statistical evidence to support claims of improved financial inclusion or household consumption.

The report underscored the need for complementary interventions to generate sustainable improvements in households’ self-sufficiency.

According to the document, while there were some positive outcomes associated with the cash transfer program, such as increased household savings and food security, its overall impact remained limited.

Beneficiary households reported improvements in decision-making autonomy and freedom of movement but failed to see substantial gains in key economic indicators.

The findings come amid ongoing scrutiny of Nigeria’s social intervention programs, with concerns raised about transparency, accountability, and effectiveness.

The cash transfer scheme, once hailed as a critical tool in poverty alleviation, now faces renewed scrutiny as stakeholders call for comprehensive reforms to address its shortcomings.

In response to the World Bank’s report, government officials have emphasized their commitment to enhancing social safety nets and improving the effectiveness of cash transfer programs.

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, reaffirmed the government’s intention to restart social intervention programs soon, following the completion of beneficiary verification processes.

As Nigeria grapples with economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and other structural issues, the need for impactful social welfare initiatives has become increasingly urgent.

The World Bank’s assessment underscores the importance of evidence-based policy-making and targeted interventions to address poverty and inequality in the country.

In a significant development for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a newly revealed contract sheds light on a revamped minerals-for-infrastructure deal with China, signaling billions of dollars in financing contingent upon the price of copper.

This pivotal agreement, signed in March as an extension to a 2008 pact, underscores the intricate interplay between commodity markets and infrastructure development in resource-rich nations.

Under the terms of the updated contract, the DRC stands to receive a substantial injection of $324 million annually for infrastructure projects from its Chinese partners through 2040.

However, there’s a catch: this funding stream is directly linked to the price of copper. As long as the price of copper remains above $8,000 per ton, the DRC is entitled to this considerable sum to bolster its infrastructure.

The latest data indicates that copper is currently trading at $9,910 per ton, well above the threshold specified in the contract.

This bodes well for the DRC’s ambitious infrastructure plans, as the nation seeks to rebuild its road network, which has suffered from decades of neglect and conflict.

However, the contract also outlines a dynamic mechanism that adjusts funding levels based on copper price fluctuations.

Should the price exceed $12,000 per ton, the DRC stands to benefit further, with 30% of the additional profit earmarked for additional infrastructure projects.

Conversely, if copper prices fall below $8,000, the funding will diminish, ceasing altogether if prices dip below $5,200 per ton.

One of the most striking aspects of the contract is the extensive tax exemptions granted to the project, providing a significant financial incentive for both parties involved.

The contract stipulates a total exemption from all indirect or direct taxes, duties, fees, customs, and royalties through the year 2040, further enhancing the attractiveness of the deal for both the DRC and its Chinese partners.

This minerals-for-infrastructure deal, centered around the joint mining venture known as Sicomines, underscores the DRC’s strategic partnership with China, a key player in global commodity markets.

With China Railway Group Ltd., Power Construction Corp. of China (PowerChina), and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. holding a majority stake in Sicomines, the project represents a significant collaboration between the DRC and Chinese entities.

According to the contract, the total value of infrastructure loans under the deal amounts to a staggering $7 billion between 2008 and 2040, with a substantial portion already disbursed.

This infusion of capital is expected to drive socio-economic development in the DRC, leveraging its vast mineral resources to fund much-needed infrastructure projects.

As the DRC navigates the intricacies of global commodity markets, particularly the volatile copper market, this minerals-for-infrastructure deal with China presents both opportunities and challenges.

While it offers a vital lifeline for infrastructure development, the nation must remain vigilant to ensure that its long-term interests are safeguarded in the face of evolving market dynamics.