Finance

Banks to Experience Severe Credit Losses in Late 2021 – Mckinsey & Company

Published

3 years ago

December 29, 2020

The crisis of 2008 came from within the financial services industry. Today, in this crisis of the real economy, banks are economically afflicted alongside other sectors in society. But banks are also playing an important role in helping society through the crisis: as the conduit for state support, supporting small businesses, companies and individual citizens.

The crisis is delivering, in effect, the biggest stress test to banks, a test which the industry is withstanding to-date, whilst demonstrating resilience and purpose. The impact of the last year without the role the industry has played is likely much deeper.

Going forward, McKinsey anticipates the test presented for banks by the pandemic will evolve in two stages in the months and years ahead. First will come severe credit losses, likely through late 2021; almost all banks and banking systems are expected to survive. Then, amid a muted global recovery, banks will face a profound challenge to ongoing operations that may persist beyond 2024.

Depending on scenario, average return on equity globally would continue its decline, from 8.9 percent in 2019 to 4.9 percent in 2020 to 1.5 percent in 2021. At the trough in 2021, ROE would fall to −1.1 percent in North America, −1.8 percent in Europe, and −0.2 percent in developed Asia. ROE would fall from higher starting levels and bottom out higher in emerging Asia (2.6 percent), the Middle East and Africa (MEA; 3.7 percent), and Latin America (5.2 percent); and it would take a smaller dip to 8.6 percent in China.
African banks enjoyed one of the highest ROEs in the world, however the overall ROE is expected to half at 7.6 percent in next 2 years, while revenues after risk may decline by 15 percent in a muted recovery scenario. In the short term, banks will be affected by cascading credit losses resulting in 50 percent impact on revenues while in the long term, continued pressure on margins and moderate volume growth might dwarf the revenue growth to half of pre-COVID-19 levels.
The onset of recovery is likely to vary by country as level of provisioning done by banks in 2020 will be a deciding factor if they will see V- or U-shaped recovery. In SA and Kenya, banks have already provisioned highly for potential bad debts while Morocco and Nigeria may continue to increase provisions in 2021 as well.

Francois Jurd de Girancourt, Head of the Banking Practice in Africa said: “The ROE recovery post COVID-19 is projected to be lower compared to pre-crisis levels, unless banks further improve their cost efficiency. African banks cost to asset ratio is 2.3 times higher than the global average and based on our estimates, banks would need to increase their operating efficiency by at least 25-30 percent to converge back to 2019 ROEs.”

Marie-Claude Nadeau, San Francisco-based McKinsey partner and report author said: “Banks will need to act quickly to return to precrisis ROE levels, in a far more challenging environment than the decade just past. The period of zero percent interest rates is being prolonged by the economic crisis and will reduce net interest margins, pushing incumbents to rethink their risk-intermediation-based business models. The trade-off between rebuilding capital and paying dividends will be stark, and deteriorating ratings of borrowers will lead to inflation of risk-weighted assets, which will tighten the squeeze.”

Mayowa Kuyoro, a partner at McKinsey & Company in Lagos, Nigeria said: “In Nigeria, our analysis is that ROE levels are likely to recover by 2024, although they will remain low compared to pre-crisis levels. To proactively manage this, Nigerian banks will need to revisit and interrogate matters of efficiency and productivity to deliver services to more people at lower cost. The rapid shift to digital is clearing the way for banks to ramp up their use of data and analytics to enhance services and reduce costs. For banks that are existing market leaders, now is the time to consider investing in technology infrastructure and talent to expand beyond current customers and products. Equipping employees with the right skills and digital tools, doubling down on digital marketing, and establishing robust digital infrastructure are likely to be key enablers for success in the next normal.”

For the long term, banks need to reset their agenda in ways that few expected nine months ago. McKinsey sets out three imperatives that will position banks well against the trends now taking shape.

They must embed newfound speed and agility, identifying what worked well in their response to the crisis and finding ways to preserve those practices.
They must fundamentally reinvent their business model to sustain a long winter of zero percent interest rates and economic challenges, while also adopting the best new ideas from digital challengers.
And they must bring their broader purpose to the fore, especially environmental, social, and governance issues, and collaborate with the communities they serve to recast their contract with society.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Banking Sector

Fidelity Bank Records a 120.1% Growth in PBT to N39.5bn in Q1 2024

Published

2 days ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Fidelity Bank MD - Mrs Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe

In line with its upward growth trajectory, leading financial institution, Fidelity Bank Plc, has posted an impressive 120.1% growth in Profit Before Tax from N17.9bn at the end of Q1 2023 to N39.5bn for Q1 2024.

This was made known in the Bank’s unaudited financial statements released on the issuer portal of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) on Tuesday, 30 April 2024.

According to the statement, Gross Earnings increased by 89.9% yoy to N192.1bn from N101.1bn in Q1 2023. The increase was led by a combination of interest income (90.7% yoy) and non-interest income (84.0% yoy).

Growth in interest income was primarily spurred by a higher yield environment and strong earning assets base, while the increase in non-interest income was led by double-digit growth in account maintenance charges, FX-related income, trade, banking services, and remittances, supported by increased customer transactions.

Commenting on the results, Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, MD/CEO, Fidelity Bank Plc stated, “We are pleased to report another quarter of strong financial performance driven by our strategic focus on customer-centricity, digital innovation and operational excellence. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, we remained resilient and agile, delivering double-digit growth on key income lines while advancing our business sustainability agenda.”

In the period under review, the bank grew Net interest income grew by 89.5% yoy to N99.6bn from N52.6bn in Q1 2023, driven by interest and similar income as the yield on financial instruments improved to 14.7% from 10.1% in Q1 2023 (2023FY: 11.6%).

In line with the steady rise in interest rates through the year, average funding cost increased by 80bps ytd to 5.2%. However, NIM came in at 8.8% compared to 8.1% in 2023FY, as increased yield on earning assets surpassed funding cost to 15.1% from 13.3% in Q1 2023 (2023FY: 13.5%).

Similarly, Total Deposits increased by 17.2% ytd to N4.7tn from N4.0tn in 2023FY, driven by double-digit growth across all deposit types (demand, savings and term). Net Loans and Advances increased by 21.2% to N3.7tn from N3.1tn in 2023FY.

“Beginning the year on this inspiring note reaffirms our strategy of helping individuals to grow, inspiring businesses to thrive and empowering economies to prosper. We are committed to our guidance as we build a more resilient business franchise with a well-diversified earnings base in 2024,” explained Onyeali-Ikpe.

Ranked as one of the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank is a full-fledged customer commercial bank with over 8.5 million customers serviced across its 251 business offices in Nigeria and the United Kingdom as well as on digital banking channels.

The bank has won multiple local and international awards including the Export Finance Bank of the Year at the 2023 BusinessDay Banks and Other Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards, the Best Payment Solution Provider Nigeria 2023 and Best SME Bank Nigeria 2022 by the Global Banking and Finance Awards; Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2023; and Best Domestic Private Bank in Nigeria by the Euromoney Global Private Banking Awards 2023.

Banking Sector

FCMB Group’s Digital Transformation Drives 62.4% Increase in Revenue

Published

2 days ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

FCMB Group Plc, one of Nigeria’s leading financial institutions, has reported a surge in its digital revenue for the 2023 financial year.

According to the 2023 audited financial results filed with the Nigerian Exchange Limited, FCMB Group’s digital revenue increased by 62.4% in digital revenue to N60.3 billion from N37.1 billion in the previous year.

With a strategic focus on digitalization, the group has successfully expanded its digital offerings, resulting in a significant uptick in revenue derived from digital channels.

In its 2023 financial report, FCMB Group highlighted the strides made in digital retail lending with over 1.6 million loans totaling N100.9 billion accessed, underwritten, and disbursed through digital channels.

Similarly, digital SME lending witnessed significant traction, with over 20,500 loans totaling N177.9 billion disbursed via digital platforms.

The group’s digital wealth propositions also experienced robust growth, with assets under management reaching N15.1 billion, reflecting a substantial increase from N8.5 billion in 2022.

The surge in digital revenue was attributed to the successful execution of FCMB Group’s digital strategy, which prioritizes innovation, customer-centricity, and operational excellence.

By embracing digital payments, wealth management, and lending solutions, FCMB Group has empowered a greater number of customers while driving revenue growth and operational efficiency.

Commenting on the financial performance, FCMB Group highlighted the reduction of its cost-to-income ratio to 66.3%, excluding revaluation gain (48.9% inclusive of revaluation income).

This achievement underscores the effectiveness of the group’s digital initiatives in optimizing costs and enhancing operational efficiency.

The robust financial performance was further underscored by FCMB Group’s profit before tax, which surged to N104.4 billion in 2023, indicating a remarkable 186% year-on-year growth.

Various divisions of the group, including banking, consumer finance, investment management, and investment banking, recorded robust earnings growth, reflecting the overall strength and resilience of the group.

Furthermore, FCMB Group’s gross revenue rose by 82.5% to N516.4 billion from N283 billion, driven by a 61.7% growth in interest income and a 154.4% growth in non-interest income.

Net interest income grew by 44.8%, propelled by an increase in the yield on earning assets.

In addition to its financial achievements, FCMB Group underscored its commitment to environmental sustainability by transitioning 160 branches to solar power, with 78% of its business locations now powered by renewable energy.

The group also secured funding of up to N13 billion from local development finance institutions to support customers in accessing solar energy solutions.

Looking ahead, FCMB Group reiterated its commitment to leveraging its unique group structure to build a technology-driven ecosystem that fosters inclusive and sustainable growth.

With a focus on continued innovation and digitization, FCMB Group is poised to sustain its growth trajectory and deliver value to its customers, shareholders, and communities across Nigeria.

Banking Sector

Ecobank’s Profit After Tax Grows to $407m in 2023

Published

2 days ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) has reported a $407 million profit after tax for the 2023 financial year.

This represents an 11% increase from the $367 million reported for the year 2022 and reflects the pan-African banking group’s continued growth trajectory amidst challenging economic conditions.

The financial results, filed with the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Tuesday, showcased Ecobank’s robust performance despite the headwinds posed by higher inflation, interest rates, and currency depreciation across Africa.

The group’s profit before tax also rose by 8% or 34% when adjusted for foreign currency translation effects to $581 million.

According to Ecobank, the growth in profit was primarily driven by revenue outpacing expense growth, resulting in positive operating leverage.

The group’s pre-provision, pre-tax operating profit hit $951 million in the year under review, representing a 17% increase from the previous year.

Commenting on the financial results, Jeremy Awori, CEO of Ecobank Group, acknowledged the challenges faced by households, businesses, and governments across Africa in 2023.

Despite the economic uncertainties, Awori declared Ecobank’s unwavering commitment to its customers and stakeholders.

Awori stated, “Ecobank generated a return on tangible shareholders’ equity of 24.9% despite the challenging operating environment in 2023.”

Net revenue exceeded $2.0 billion for the first time since 2015, reaching $2.1 billion, underscoring the efficacy of Ecobank’s 5-year growth, Transformation, and Returns strategy.

The CEO attributed Ecobank’s encouraging results to its customer-centric approach and initiatives aimed at revenue diversification, growth, and low-cost deposit mobilization.

The consumer and commercial banking businesses witnessed an increase in their share of group-wide revenues and profits, indicating progress in strategic objectives.

However, amidst the overall positive performance, Ecobank’s Nigerian operations faced challenges, with profit before tax declining to $27 million in 2023 from $31 million in 2022, representing a 15% decrease.

The challenging operating environment in Nigeria, characterized by high inflation and currency depreciation, impacted the performance of the Nigerian segment.

Looking ahead, Ecobank remains committed to its strategic agenda, which emphasizes technology-driven innovation, revenue diversification, and cost management.

The group’s focus on disciplined cost management aims to redirect savings into investments in marketing, sales capabilities, and technology, driving sustainable returns in the future.

As shareholders approved a N10 billion rights issue, Ecobank is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities and navigate evolving market dynamics.

With a resilient performance in 2023, Ecobank reaffirms its commitment to driving growth, delivering value to shareholders, and advancing financial inclusion across Africa.