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COVID-19 Plunges Nigeria’s GDP by the Most, Contracts by 6.10% in Q2 2020

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Manufacturers

Nigeria’s Economy Contracts by 6.10% in Q2 2020 as COVID-19 Bites

Nigeria’s economy contracted by the most on record in the second quarter as COVID-19 negative impacts plunged activities, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

Africa’s largest economy contracted by 6.10 percent year-on-year in real terms in the quarter under review. Bringing an end to a 3-year of low but steady economic recovery started after the 2016 economic recession.

NBS attributed the decline to drop in global and local economic activities due to the global pandemic that disrupted both logistics and global economic activities during the quarter.

Nigeria’s revenue generation plunged to a record-low during the period as low oil price and weak demand dragged on the nation’s foreign reserves and ability to services its petrol-dollar economy.

The domestic efforts ranged from initial restrictions of human and vehicular movement implemented in only a few states to a nationwide curfew, bans on domestic and international travel, closure of schools and markets etc., affecting both local and international trade. The efforts, led by both the Federal and State governments, evolved over the course of the quarter and
persisted throughout,” the NBS noted.

However, when compared with the same period of 2019, when the economy grew by 2.12 percent, the economy declined by 8.22 percent and recorded a 7.97 percent decline when compared to 1.87 percent posted in the first quarter of 2020.

Accordingly, Nigeria’s real GDP contracted by 2.18 percent year-on-year in the first half of the year, down from 2.11 percent growth recorded in the same period of 2019.

On a quarterly basis, the real economy decreased by 5.04 percent. The report noted that only 13 sectors recorded positive real growth in the quarter, down from 30 posted in the first quarter.

Similarly, aggregate GDP declined by 2.8 percent from N35,001,877.95 million achieved in the corresponding quarter of 2019 to N34,023,197.60 million in nominal terms.

In general, the nominal growth rate contracted by 16.81 percent and 14.81 percent when compared with the second quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020.

Oil Sector

During the period under review, Nigeria’s daily crude oil production stood at 1.81 million barrels per day (mbpd), representing 0.21 mbpd decline from 2.02 mbpd posted in the same period of 2019 and 0.26 percent lower than the 2.07 mbpd pumped in the first quarter of 2020.

Despite the reasonable moderate production level, growth in the oil sector contracted by 6.63 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, a decrease of 13.80 percent when compared to the corresponding period of 2019. Growth in the sector declined by 11.69 percent from 5.06 percent growth achieved in the first quarter.

On a quarterly basis, the sector contracted by 10.82 percent. Largely due to weak global demand for the commodity, especially the expensive Nigerian oil when compared to Saudi Arabia and Iraq offering huge discounts to sustain sales.

Still, the sector contributed 8.93 percent to the total real economy in the second quarter, lower than the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it accounted for 8.98 percent and 9.50 percent, respectively.

Non-oil Sector

The real GDP of the non-oil sector contracted by 6.05 percent in the reference quarter. The first decline since the third quarter of 2017 and represents a 7.70 percent decline from the number posted in Q2 2019 and 7.60 percent lower than the first quarter of 2020 result.

Output in the sector was driven largely by Financial and Insurance, Information and Communication, Agriculture and Public Administration. NBS said these four non-oil sectors moderated the economy-wide decline.

According to the bureau, the Transport and Storage, Accommodation and Food Services, Construction, Education, Real estate and Trade experienced the largest decline in the quarter under review.

The non-oil sector accounted for 91.07 percent of Nigeria’s aggregate GDP in real terms. Again, higher than the 90.50 percent recorded in the first quarter and 91.02 percent posted in the same period of 2020.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

CBN Worries as Nigeria’s Economic Activities Decline

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has expressed deep worries over the ongoing decline in economic activities within the nation.

The disclosure came from the CBN’s Deputy Governor of Corporate Services, Bala Moh’d Bello, who highlighted the grim economic landscape in his personal statement following the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

According to Bello, the country’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plummeted sharply to 39.2 index points in February 2024 from 48.5 index points recorded in the previous month. This substantial drop underscores the challenging economic environment Nigeria currently faces.

The persistent contraction in economic activity, which has endured for eight consecutive months, has been primarily attributed to various factors including exchange rate pressures, soaring inflation, security challenges, and other significant headwinds.

Bello emphasized the urgent need for well-calibrated policy decisions aimed at ensuring price stability to prevent further stifling of economic activities and avoid derailing output performance. Despite sustained increases in the monetary policy rate, inflationary pressures continue to mount, posing a significant challenge.

Inflation rates surged to 31.70 per cent in February 2024 from 29.90 per cent in the previous month, with both food and core inflation witnessing a notable uptick.

Bello attributed this alarming rise in inflation to elevated production costs, lingering security challenges, and ongoing exchange rate pressures.

The situation further escalated in March, with inflation soaring to an alarming 33.22 per cent, prompting urgent calls for coordinated efforts to address the burgeoning crisis.

The adverse effects of high inflation on citizens’ purchasing power, investment decisions, and overall output performance cannot be overstated.

While acknowledging the commendable efforts of the Federal Government in tackling food insecurity through initiatives such as releasing grains from strategic reserves, distributing seeds and fertilizers, and supporting dry season farming, Bello stressed the need for decisive action to curb the soaring inflation rate.

It’s worth noting that the MPC had recently raised the country’s interest rate to 24.75 per cent in March, reflecting the urgency and seriousness with which the CBN is approaching the economic challenges facing Nigeria.

As the nation grapples with a multitude of economic woes, including inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and security concerns, the CBN’s vigilance and proactive measures become increasingly crucial in navigating these turbulent times and steering the economy towards stability and growth.

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Economy

Sub-Saharan Africa to Double Nickel, Triple Cobalt, and Tenfold Lithium by 2050, says IMF

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In a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sub-Saharan Africa emerges as a pivotal player in the global market for critical minerals.

The IMF forecasts a significant uptick in the production of essential minerals like nickel, cobalt, and lithium in the region by the year 2050.

According to the report titled ‘Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth,’ Sub-Saharan Africa stands to double its nickel production, triple its cobalt output, and witness a tenfold increase in lithium extraction over the next three decades.

This surge is attributed to the global transition towards clean energy, which is driving the demand for these minerals used in electric vehicles, solar panels, and other renewable energy technologies.

The IMF projects that the revenues generated from the extraction of key minerals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium, could exceed $16 trillion over the next 25 years.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to capture over 10 percent of these revenues, potentially leading to a GDP increase of 12 percent or more by 2050.

The report underscores the transformative potential of this mineral wealth, emphasizing that if managed effectively, it could catalyze economic growth and development across the region.

With Sub-Saharan Africa holding about 30 percent of the world’s proven critical mineral reserves, the IMF highlights the opportunity for the region to become a major player in the global supply chain for these essential resources.

Key countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are already significant contributors to global mineral production. For instance, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounts for over 70 percent of global cobalt output and approximately half of the world’s proven reserves.

Other countries like South Africa, Gabon, Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Mali also possess significant reserves of critical minerals.

However, the report also raises concerns about the need for local processing of these minerals to capture more value and create higher-skilled jobs within the region.

While raw mineral exports contribute to revenue, processing these minerals locally could significantly increase their value and contribute to sustainable development.

The IMF calls for policymakers to focus on developing local processing industries to maximize the economic benefits of the region’s mineral wealth.

By diversifying economies and moving up the value chain, countries can reduce their vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations and enhance their resilience to external shocks.

The report concludes by advocating for regional collaboration and integration to create a more attractive market for investment in mineral processing industries.

By working together across borders, Sub-Saharan African countries can unlock the full potential of their critical mineral wealth and pave the way for sustainable economic growth and development.

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Economy

Lagos, Abuja to Host Public Engagements on Proposed Tax Policy Changes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee has announced a series of public engagements to discuss proposed tax policy changes.

Scheduled to kick off in Lagos on Thursday followed by Abuja on May 6, these sessions will help shape Nigeria’s tax structure.

Led by Chairman Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to gather insights and perspectives from stakeholders across sectors.

The focal point of these engagements is to solicit feedback on revisions to the National Tax Policy and potential amendments to tax laws and administration practices.

The significance of these public dialogues cannot be overstated. As Nigeria endeavors to fortify its economy and enhance revenue collection mechanisms, citizen input is paramount.

The engagement process underscores a commitment to democratic governance and collaborative policymaking, recognizing that tax reforms affect every facet of society.

The proposed changes are rooted in a strategic vision to stimulate economic growth while ensuring fairness and efficiency in tax administration. By harnessing diverse viewpoints, the committee seeks to craft policies that are not only robust but also reflective of the needs and aspirations of Nigerians.

Addressing the press, Chairman Taiwo Oyedele highlighted the importance of these consultations in refining the nation’s tax architecture.

He said the committee’s mandate is informed by insights gleaned from previous engagements and consultations.

The evolving nature of Nigeria’s economic landscape necessitates agility and responsiveness in policymaking, traits that these engagements seek to cultivate.

The public engagements will provide a platform for stakeholders to articulate their perspectives, concerns, and recommendations regarding tax reforms.

Participants from various sectors, including business, academia, civil society, and government agencies, are expected to contribute to robust discussions aimed at charting a path forward for Nigeria’s fiscal policy.

As the first leg of the engagements unfolds in Lagos, followed by Abuja, anticipation is high for constructive dialogue and meaningful outcomes.

The success of these engagements hinges on active participation and genuine collaboration among stakeholders, underscoring the collective responsibility to shape Nigeria’s fiscal future.

In an era marked by economic challenges and global uncertainty, proactive and inclusive policymaking is paramount.

The forthcoming public engagements represent a tangible step towards fostering transparency, accountability, and citizen engagement in Nigeria’s tax reform process.

By harnessing the collective wisdom of its citizens, Nigeria can forge a tax regime that propels sustainable economic development and fosters shared prosperity for all.

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