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Nigerian Economy to Contract by 3.5 percent – McKinsey

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  • Nigerian Economy to Contract by 3.5 percent – McKinsey

Nigeria’s economy could contract as much as 3.5 percent in 2020 even if Africa’s largest economy manages to curb the spread of coronavirus, according to a report by McKinsey & Company, a New-York based global consulting firm.

This translates to a decline of almost 6 percent from the 2019 GDP growth rate of 2.27 percent.

“That would represent a reduction in GDP of approximately $20 billion, with more than two-thirds of the direct impact coming from oil-price effects, given Nigeria’s status as a major oil exporter,” McKinsey & Company said in a report published Wednesday.

Nigeria’s largest contraction was -1.62 percent recorded in 2016 during the nation’s first economic recession in 25 years. However, with a projection of 3.5 percent decline Africa’s largest exporter of crude oil could experience a pervasive decline in growth.

“A contraction of that magnitude at a time prices are rising can only spell an entry into stagflation which means declining output, rising prices and higher unemployment,” said Obinna Uzoma, chief economist at EUA Intelligence.

The analysis was based on the country’s overexposed to the commodity market that is unlikely to rebound anytime soon given low oil prices, weak global oil demand and the uncertainty surrounding the global economy.

McKinsey added that if the outbreak is not contained the nation’s economy could contract by 8.8 percent or $40 billion this year alone given its limited fiscal space and huge financial obligations.

“The biggest driver of this loss would be a reduction in consumer spending in food and beverages, clothing, and transport,” Acha Leke, senior partner at McKinsey & Company, said.

A contraction in growth would disrupt industries, worsen the unemployment rate, hurt capital importation despite falling foreign reserves and impede the central bank’s ability to intervene in the forex market to support economic activity and prop up the Naira value.

“The stock market will also continue to decline as a weaker economy will mean weaker company earnings and spark a recession selloff on top the coronavirus and oil price selloff and unemployment will hit the roof,” Uzoma of EUA Intelligence said, adding that Nigeria is not prepared for such turmoil but “that could be our reality very soon”.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Appointments

President Tinubu Appoints Nigeria’s Renowned Banker, Jim Ovia as Chairman of Nigerian Education Loan Fund

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President Bola Tinubu has approved the appointment of the Founder and Chairman of Zenith Bank Plc, Jim Ovia, CFR, as the Chairman of the Board of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND).

This was announced in a State House Press Release by the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, Chief Ajuri Ngelale on April 26, 2024.

According to the statement, ‘‘the President believes Mr. Ovia will bring his immense wealth of experience and professional stature to this role to advance the all-important vision of ensuring that no Nigerian student suffers a capricious end to their pursuit of higher education over a lack of funds and of ensuring that Nigerian youths, irrespective of who they are, have access to higher education and skills that will make them productive members of society and core contributors to the knowledge-based global economy of this century.’’

Jim Ovia, CFR, is the Founder and Chairman of Zenith Bank Plc, one of Africa’s largest banks with over $21.4 billion in assets and shareholders’ funds of over US$2.4 billion as at December 2023.  Zenith Bank is a global brand listed on the London Stock Exchange and the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

In addition to major operations in Nigeria and other West African countries, the Bank has sizeable operations in London and Dubai.

Jim Ovia is the Founder and Chancellor of James Hope University, Lekki, Lagos which was recently approved by the National Universities Commission (NUC) to offer postgraduate degrees in business courses.

James Hope University commenced activities in September 2023.

Through his philanthropy – the Jim Ovia Foundation – he has shown the importance he accords good education.  In support of the Nigerian youth, Jim Ovia Foundation offers scholarships to indigent students through the Mankind United to Support Total Education (MUSTE) initiative.

Most of the beneficiaries of Jim Ovia Foundation scholarship are now accountants, business administrators, lawyers, engineers, doctors etc.

He is the author of “Africa Rise and Shine”, published by ForbesBooks. The book which encapsulates Zenith Bank’s meteoric rise, details the secrets of success in doing business in Africa. He is an alumnus of the Harvard Business School (OPM), University of Louisiana (MBA), and Southern University, Louisiana, (B.Sc. Business Administration). Jim Ovia is a member of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Community of Chairpersons, and a champion of the Forum’s EDISON Alliance.

In recognition of Jim Ovia’s contributions to the economic development of Nigeria, in 2022, the Federal Government of Nigeria honoured him with Commander of the Federal Republic, CFR. Also, in May 2022, Jim Ovia was conferred with the National Productivity Order of Merit (NPOM) Award by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

Earlier, he has been conferred with the national awards of Member of the Order of the Federal Republic, MFR, and Commander of the Order of the Niger, CON, in 2000 and 2011, respectively, as a testament to his visionary leadership and contributions to Nigeria’s financial services sector.

The National Student Loan Programme is a pivotal intervention that seeks to guarantee sustainable higher education and functional skill development for all Nigerian students and youths.

The Nigerian Education Loan Fund, the implementing institution of this innovation, demands excellence and Nigerians of the finest professional ilk to guide and manage.

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Company News

NNPC and ARPHL Collaborate to Expand Port Harcourt Refinery to 310,000bpd

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has joined forces with the African Refinery Port Harcourt Limited (ARPHL) to expand the Port Harcourt Refinery.

The collaboration entails ARPHL’s subscription of a 15% equity stake in the Port Harcourt Refining Company, a move aimed at augmenting the refinery’s daily production capacity from 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 310,000bpd.

The agreement, finalized at a signing ceremony held at the NNPC Towers in Abuja, underscores the commitment of both parties to bolstering Nigeria’s downstream oil and gas sector.

Managing Director of African Refinery Port Harcourt Limited, Omotayo Adebajo, and NNPC’s Executive Vice-President, Downstream, Adedapo Segun, sealed the deal, marking a pivotal moment in the nation’s quest for energy self-sufficiency.

According to statements released by NNPC and ARPHL, the subscription agreement represents a crucial step towards expanding Nigeria’s refining capacity and addressing the nation’s persistent reliance on imported petroleum products.

The proposed increment of 100,000bpd in the Port Harcourt Refinery’s capacity is poised to significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel, fostering economic resilience and energy security.

Speaking on the collaboration, NNPC’s Executive Vice-President highlighted the strategic significance of co-locating the proposed additional refining capacity with the existing facilities at the Port Harcourt Refinery complex.

The move not only optimizes existing infrastructure but also underscores NNPC’s commitment to modernizing and revitalizing Nigeria’s refining sector.

In a similar vein, Tola Ayo-Adeyemi, Group Executive Director, Legal and Regulatory Compliance at African Refinery Group, emphasized the transformative impact of the collaboration on Nigeria’s energy landscape.

He highlighted the ARPHL refinery project’s position as the largest private refinery in Nigeria’s South-South and South-East geopolitical regions, underscoring its pivotal role in driving regional development and economic growth.

The groundbreaking ceremony for the ARPHL refinery project, scheduled for later this year, symbolizes a significant milestone in Nigeria’s journey towards energy independence.

With construction slated to commence in 2025 and commercial operations targeted for 2027, the project represents a beacon of hope for Nigeria’s refining sector, promising to deliver over 30 million liters of various petroleum products daily upon completion.

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Tech Giants Microsoft and Alphabet Beat Expectations, Driven by AI and Cloud Revenue

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Industry titans Microsoft Corp. and Google parent company Alphabet Inc. have surpassed Wall Street’s expectations, buoyed by robust growth in artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing revenue streams.

The stellar quarterly results underscore the pivotal role of advanced technologies in shaping the future of these tech behemoths.

Both Microsoft and Alphabet showcased impressive performances in their latest earnings reports, sending their shares soaring in after-hours trading.

Microsoft’s stock surged by 6.3%, while Alphabet witnessed an astonishing 17% increase, reflecting investor confidence in the companies’ strategic investments and innovative initiatives.

The driving force behind this remarkable success story is the accelerating demand for AI-powered solutions and cloud services. As businesses increasingly embrace digital transformation, the adoption of AI technologies and cloud infrastructure has become paramount, fueling substantial revenue growth for both Microsoft and Alphabet.

At the forefront of this AI revolution, Microsoft and Alphabet have been fervently expanding their AI capabilities and integrating them into a wide array of products and services.

From advanced AI models to cloud-based AI solutions, both companies have been relentless in their pursuit of technological innovation, positioning themselves as leaders in the rapidly evolving AI landscape.

Silicon Valley has heralded 2024 as the year of generative AI, a groundbreaking technology capable of creating text, images, and videos from simple prompts.

Microsoft and Alphabet have capitalized on this trend, leveraging generative AI to drive business growth and enhance their cloud computing offerings.

The surge in cloud computing demand has been a particularly welcome development for Google, which has long trailed behind rivals such as Amazon and Microsoft in this competitive market.

After achieving profitability in its cloud operation last year, Google’s first-quarter profit of $900 million far exceeded analysts’ projections, signaling a significant turnaround for the tech giant.

Microsoft’s Azure cloud computing platform also experienced robust growth, with sales climbing by 31% in the quarter, surpassing analysts’ expectations.

The integration of AI technology into Azure subscriptions has proven to be a key driver of growth, as businesses increasingly recognize the value of AI-driven insights and automation.

Furthermore, both Microsoft and Alphabet have seen promising uptake of AI-powered tools across various industries. From AI assistants for office productivity to AI-driven coding platforms, these companies are empowering businesses with cutting-edge AI solutions that enhance productivity, efficiency, and innovation.

Despite the stellar performance of Microsoft and Alphabet, the broader tech landscape remains dynamic and competitive.

While both companies have demonstrated resilience and adaptability in navigating market challenges, they must continue to innovate and evolve to maintain their competitive edge in an increasingly digital world.

As the AI and cloud computing revolution continues to unfold, Microsoft and Alphabet are well-positioned to lead the charge, driving innovation, shaping industries, and delivering value to customers around the globe. With their unwavering commitment to technological excellence, these tech giants are poised for continued success in the dynamic landscape of the digital age.

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