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COVID-19 Disrupts Manufacturing Sector in March, Growth Slows to Record Low

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Manufacturing Sector - Investors King
  • COVID-19 Disrupts Manufacturing Sector in March, Growth Slows to Record Low

The manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace in the month of March following a decline in raw material inventories and supplier delivery time as disruption in global logistics due to ravaging coronavirus weighed on the sector.

In the report released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Tuesday, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 51.1 index points in March, down from 58.3 index points recorded in the month of February before the coronavirus pandemic.manufacturing 1While the index has now expanded for 36 consecutive months, the drop in the rate of growth from 58.3 to 51.1 was the largest in recent years.

Accordingly, out of the 14 subsectors surveyed by the CBN, only 7 subsectors recorded growth above 50 percent in March. The seven subsectors are transportation equipment; petroleum & coal products; furniture & related products; food, beverage & tobacco products; cement; fabricated metal
products and plastics & rubber products.

However, electrical equipment; primary metal; nonmetallic mineral products; paper products; textile, apparel, leather and footwear; printing & related support activities and chemical & pharmaceutical products subsectors all recorded declines in the month of March.

Similarly, production in the sector declined from 58.9 index points achieved in the month of February to 54.1 index points in the review month. Again, while index points above 50 levels indicate growth, the degree of decline from 58.9 to 54.1 shows the effect of coronavirus on the sector that depends largely on China for most of its raw materials.

According to the report, only 7 of the 14 subsectors surveyed recorded growth while the remaining 7 subsectors experience declines in production level. This was despite the production level in the sector expanding for the 37th consecutive month in March.

Demand also moderated in the manufacturing sector from 59.1 index points posted in February to 52.3 points in March, suggesting that growing shut down and disruption of global logistics are weighing on new orders. Five of the subsectors reported growth with two subsectors remaining unchanged during the month. Activities in the remaining seven subsectors declined in the month of March.

The gauge of supplier delivery time shows due to global restrictions that led to the disruption of global logistics, suppliers are finding it hard to meet demand. Therefore, delivery time contracted during the month to 49.4 index points, down from 58.4 index points achieved in the month of February. Making it the first month of contraction after 33 consecutive months of growth.

Employment in the manufacturing sector also contracted for the first time in 34 months in March. Job creation in the sector dropped from 56.4 index points to 47.1 points, suggesting that weak business activities in the sector have started hurting new job creation barely a month after the coronavirus hits the country.

Only three subsectors experienced improved employment in the month under review while ten of the 14 subsectors surveyed experienced declined in employment level. One subsector was unchanged.

In a similar manner, the raw material inventories contracted for the first time to 49.4 basis points in March, down from 58.5 points reported in the month of February. Just three of the 14 subsectors recorded growth, three subsectors were unchanged while eight subsectors reported lower raw material inventories due to the pandemic.

The global economy has started to record significant slow down in growth as stated by the International Monetary Fund on Monday. The fund said global growth is currently negative and that the world should be prepared for a repeat of the 2008 economic crisis or something worse.

South Africa on Monday announced a 21-day lockdown to curb the spread of the virus after the total number of confirmed cases jumped to 554. That is a nation already in recession with little to zero fiscal space to cushion the economy.

The story is not different in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy. The government was forced to cut the 2020 budget of N10.59 trillion by N1.5 trillion and also adjusted the foreign exchange rate of local Naira to reflect the current economic fundamentals.

While the number of confirmed cases (44)  were fewer than South Africa, the rate of increase remains a concern as more than 32 of that number were reported in the last 6 days.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

CBN Worries as Nigeria’s Economic Activities Decline

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has expressed deep worries over the ongoing decline in economic activities within the nation.

The disclosure came from the CBN’s Deputy Governor of Corporate Services, Bala Moh’d Bello, who highlighted the grim economic landscape in his personal statement following the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

According to Bello, the country’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plummeted sharply to 39.2 index points in February 2024 from 48.5 index points recorded in the previous month. This substantial drop underscores the challenging economic environment Nigeria currently faces.

The persistent contraction in economic activity, which has endured for eight consecutive months, has been primarily attributed to various factors including exchange rate pressures, soaring inflation, security challenges, and other significant headwinds.

Bello emphasized the urgent need for well-calibrated policy decisions aimed at ensuring price stability to prevent further stifling of economic activities and avoid derailing output performance. Despite sustained increases in the monetary policy rate, inflationary pressures continue to mount, posing a significant challenge.

Inflation rates surged to 31.70 per cent in February 2024 from 29.90 per cent in the previous month, with both food and core inflation witnessing a notable uptick.

Bello attributed this alarming rise in inflation to elevated production costs, lingering security challenges, and ongoing exchange rate pressures.

The situation further escalated in March, with inflation soaring to an alarming 33.22 per cent, prompting urgent calls for coordinated efforts to address the burgeoning crisis.

The adverse effects of high inflation on citizens’ purchasing power, investment decisions, and overall output performance cannot be overstated.

While acknowledging the commendable efforts of the Federal Government in tackling food insecurity through initiatives such as releasing grains from strategic reserves, distributing seeds and fertilizers, and supporting dry season farming, Bello stressed the need for decisive action to curb the soaring inflation rate.

It’s worth noting that the MPC had recently raised the country’s interest rate to 24.75 per cent in March, reflecting the urgency and seriousness with which the CBN is approaching the economic challenges facing Nigeria.

As the nation grapples with a multitude of economic woes, including inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and security concerns, the CBN’s vigilance and proactive measures become increasingly crucial in navigating these turbulent times and steering the economy towards stability and growth.

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Economy

Sub-Saharan Africa to Double Nickel, Triple Cobalt, and Tenfold Lithium by 2050, says IMF

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In a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sub-Saharan Africa emerges as a pivotal player in the global market for critical minerals.

The IMF forecasts a significant uptick in the production of essential minerals like nickel, cobalt, and lithium in the region by the year 2050.

According to the report titled ‘Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth,’ Sub-Saharan Africa stands to double its nickel production, triple its cobalt output, and witness a tenfold increase in lithium extraction over the next three decades.

This surge is attributed to the global transition towards clean energy, which is driving the demand for these minerals used in electric vehicles, solar panels, and other renewable energy technologies.

The IMF projects that the revenues generated from the extraction of key minerals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium, could exceed $16 trillion over the next 25 years.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to capture over 10 percent of these revenues, potentially leading to a GDP increase of 12 percent or more by 2050.

The report underscores the transformative potential of this mineral wealth, emphasizing that if managed effectively, it could catalyze economic growth and development across the region.

With Sub-Saharan Africa holding about 30 percent of the world’s proven critical mineral reserves, the IMF highlights the opportunity for the region to become a major player in the global supply chain for these essential resources.

Key countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are already significant contributors to global mineral production. For instance, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounts for over 70 percent of global cobalt output and approximately half of the world’s proven reserves.

Other countries like South Africa, Gabon, Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Mali also possess significant reserves of critical minerals.

However, the report also raises concerns about the need for local processing of these minerals to capture more value and create higher-skilled jobs within the region.

While raw mineral exports contribute to revenue, processing these minerals locally could significantly increase their value and contribute to sustainable development.

The IMF calls for policymakers to focus on developing local processing industries to maximize the economic benefits of the region’s mineral wealth.

By diversifying economies and moving up the value chain, countries can reduce their vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations and enhance their resilience to external shocks.

The report concludes by advocating for regional collaboration and integration to create a more attractive market for investment in mineral processing industries.

By working together across borders, Sub-Saharan African countries can unlock the full potential of their critical mineral wealth and pave the way for sustainable economic growth and development.

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Economy

Lagos, Abuja to Host Public Engagements on Proposed Tax Policy Changes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee has announced a series of public engagements to discuss proposed tax policy changes.

Scheduled to kick off in Lagos on Thursday followed by Abuja on May 6, these sessions will help shape Nigeria’s tax structure.

Led by Chairman Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to gather insights and perspectives from stakeholders across sectors.

The focal point of these engagements is to solicit feedback on revisions to the National Tax Policy and potential amendments to tax laws and administration practices.

The significance of these public dialogues cannot be overstated. As Nigeria endeavors to fortify its economy and enhance revenue collection mechanisms, citizen input is paramount.

The engagement process underscores a commitment to democratic governance and collaborative policymaking, recognizing that tax reforms affect every facet of society.

The proposed changes are rooted in a strategic vision to stimulate economic growth while ensuring fairness and efficiency in tax administration. By harnessing diverse viewpoints, the committee seeks to craft policies that are not only robust but also reflective of the needs and aspirations of Nigerians.

Addressing the press, Chairman Taiwo Oyedele highlighted the importance of these consultations in refining the nation’s tax architecture.

He said the committee’s mandate is informed by insights gleaned from previous engagements and consultations.

The evolving nature of Nigeria’s economic landscape necessitates agility and responsiveness in policymaking, traits that these engagements seek to cultivate.

The public engagements will provide a platform for stakeholders to articulate their perspectives, concerns, and recommendations regarding tax reforms.

Participants from various sectors, including business, academia, civil society, and government agencies, are expected to contribute to robust discussions aimed at charting a path forward for Nigeria’s fiscal policy.

As the first leg of the engagements unfolds in Lagos, followed by Abuja, anticipation is high for constructive dialogue and meaningful outcomes.

The success of these engagements hinges on active participation and genuine collaboration among stakeholders, underscoring the collective responsibility to shape Nigeria’s fiscal future.

In an era marked by economic challenges and global uncertainty, proactive and inclusive policymaking is paramount.

The forthcoming public engagements represent a tangible step towards fostering transparency, accountability, and citizen engagement in Nigeria’s tax reform process.

By harnessing the collective wisdom of its citizens, Nigeria can forge a tax regime that propels sustainable economic development and fosters shared prosperity for all.

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