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Coronavirus: Economic Implications as Nigeria Battles First Case

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  • Coronavirus: Economic Implications as Nigeria Battles First Case

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, on Thursday reports the very first case of Coronavirus despite the Federal Government disbursing N386 million to health agencies a week ago to prevent and monitor tourists arriving in one of the world’s most populous and limited nations.

The Nigerian Stock Exchanged (NSE) responded as expected, closed in the red, and on Friday opened lower as investors look to decipher the extent of damage done or could be done giving how limited Nigeria’s health system is.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had lowered the nation’s growth projection for the year from 2.1 percent previously predicted to 2 percent a week ago, citing slow recovery, falling foreign reserves and declining global oil prices.

Since the report, Brent crude, against which Nigerian oil is measured, has dropped from $57 a barrel to $49.56 on Friday after many countries like Nigeria, Lithuania, Wale, etc reported their very first case of infection.

UKOilDaily 2At $49.56 per barrel, Nigeria’s earning per barrel is $7.44 below the $57 a barrel benchmarked by the Federal Government for the 2020 budget. However, at an assumed production level of 2.18 million barrels per day, the nation would be losing $16,219,200 per day.

But with coronavirus fast-spreading outside China, the world’s economy is predicted to slow down with China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, expected to suffer the most.

This means Nigeria’s foreign reserves could plunge further from the current level of $36 billion as the Central Bank of Nigeria struggles to ensure availability of dollar for importers amid projected rise in capital flight as reports of coronavirus crystalizes.

Foreign investors are likely to abandon Nigerian assets and suspend new investment plans in the near-term, leaving the nation without capital importation to complement the little from crude oil sales. Therefore, Nigeria may struggle to fund the 2020 budget and meet other financial obligations as access to the US dollar dropped with the rising cases of coronavirus outside China.

According to a recent OPEC report, Nigeria’s crude oil production dropped to 1.57 million barrels per day in December, suggesting that the nation has not pumped near the assumed 2.18 mbpd in 2020 as available reports are pointing to a nation struggling to up production despite OPEC capping its production quota at 1.75 mbpd and expecting to fund 31.35 percent of its N10.59 trillion budget with oil revenue.

Also, rising consumer prices is another issue that could hurt consumer spending in 2020. President Muhammadu Buhari had closed the nation’s border in August 2019 to force decorum across the land borders without ensuring local manufacturers can service the 200 million nation of pure consumers. This has led to the continuous rise in inflation rate to 12.13 percent in January, the highest in 21 months, and expected to even rise further if the Open Market Operations (OMO) policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria is not reversed.

This, combined with the new Finance Act mandating Nigerians to pay 7.5 percent Value Added Tax (VAT) amid weak wage growth and poor consumer buying power could worsen the nation’s job creation and unemployment in 2020. Nigeria’s unemployment presently stood at 23.1 percent or 20.9 million people with youths unemployment/underemployment at 55.4 percent, the nation faces not just coronavirus in 2020 but weak growth, rising unemployment rate, low new investment and rising consumer prices as neighbouring countries would no longer welcome the idea of an open border with a coronavirus infected nation.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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