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N24.39tn Debt: IMF Worries Over Nigeria’s Repayment Capacity

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  • N24.39tn Debt: IMF Worries Over Nigeria’s Repayment Capacity

The International Monetary Fund, on Tuesday, expressed worry over Nigeria’s ability to repay its foreign debt which had continued to rise.

Though it said conditions were favourable for the country to continue to borrow, the IMF equally expressed worry over the capacity to repay.

The Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF, Tobias Adrian, while presenting the Global Financial Stability Report at the ongoing joint annual spring meetings with the World Bank in Washington DC, said, “Nigeria has been borrowing in international markets but we worry. So, on the one hand, that is very good because it allows Nigeria to invest more; but on the other hand, we do worry about rollover risks going forward.

“At the moment, funding conditions in economies such as Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries are very favourable but that might change at some point. And there is a risk of rollovers and there is the risk of whether these needs for refinancing can be met in the future.”

Recall that Nigeria’s total debt profile as of December 31, 2018, stood at N24.387tn. The figure swelled by 12.25 per cent from N21.725tn in 2017 to N24.39tn in 2018.

The Debt Management Office said the debt rose by N2.66tn from December 31, 2017 to December 31, 2018.

Statistics provided by the DMO showed that the country’s public debt rose from N21.73tn in 2017 to N24.39tn within the one-year period.

According to the DMO, the year-on-year growth of public debt show 12.25 per cent within the one-year period.

However, in a swift reaction to the IMF statement, the Federal Government described the nation’s debt burden as sustainable. Speaking on Wednesday in Abuja, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Udoma Udo-Udoma, argued that it posed no harm to the economy of Nigeria.

Udo-Udoma had argued that borrowing to spend on infrastructure and productive purposes was done by all countries, so long as there was a back-up revenue base.

The minister spoke at the Presidential Villa at the end of Wednesday’s Federal Executive Council meeting.

It was presided over by Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo in the absence of President Muhammadu Buhari.

He said, “With regard to our debts, our debts are sustainable.

“We do have a revenue challenge and we are focusing on that. Once the revenues come up, it will be obvious that we don’t have a debt problem at all.

“We are working on a number of initiatives to increase our revenues. We are looking at initiatives to widen the tax base. We are looking at initiatives to increase efficiency in collection.

“We are looking at a single window, which will help to increase efficiency, custom collections. We are looking at many different ways to improve revenues.

“The debts are sustainable; every nation borrows. We are working on increasing our revenues.”

Udo-Udoma also spoke on the 2019 budget still awaiting passage by the National Assembly.

“With regard to the budget, we are happy to see the focus of the National Assembly on the budget and we look forward to whenever it is passed and the executive receiving it,” he added.

Last week, the Peoples Democratic Party had raised the alarm over the country’s debt profile.

The party, which alleged that Buhari’s administration borrowed so much money in the last four years, noted that by 2016, the debt stock was already N17.5tn.

When asked to comment on the risk of Chinese growing investment in Africa, Adrian said, “Lending — capital flows in general and these include flows from China — are, of course, important for development, on the one hand. On the other hand, what is very important in those lending arrangements are the terms of the loans.”

He urged recipients of Chinese loans in sub-Saharan Africa to ensure that terms were favourable to them.

“We urge countries to make sure that when they borrow from abroad, that the terms are favourable for the borrower. In Particular, we tend to recommend that loans to countries should be conforming to Paris Club arrangements. And that is not always the case with loans from China.”

Meanwhile, the IMF has said corruption is a challenge for many resource-rich countries and this has affected the way they manage their Sovereign Wealth Funds.

In view of this, the Bretton Wood institution ranked Nigeria the second worst performer on the Sovereign Wealth Funds user index only ahead of Qatar in the Fiscal Monitor report also released on Wednesday.

Relying on the data from the Natural Resource Governance Institute and Worldwide Governance Indicators, the IMF said the index was compiled using the corporate governance and transparency scores of the Sovereign Wealth Funds and the size of assets as a percentage of 2016 GDP of the countries considered.

Other African countries on the index that performed better than Nigeria include Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Gabon, Angola, Libya, and Botswana. Ghana came second after Columbia.

The Nigerian Sovereign Wealth Fund was put at $2.15bn in May 2018.

The IMF in the report advised that “Sovereign Wealth Funds should abide by clearly established rules and governance arrangements, and report regularly on operations and investment performance, with eternally audited annual financial statements.”

Adding that the Sovereign Wealth Funds should not be allowed to undertake extra-budgetary spending, the IMF said, “It is critical to develop a strong institutional framework to manage these resources—including good management of the financial assets kept in sovereign wealth funds—and to ensure that proceeds are appropriately spent. This remains a significant challenge in many resource-rich countries that, on average, have weaker institutions and higher corruption

“The governance challenges of commodity-rich countries— that is, the management of public assets— call for ensuring a high degree of transparency and accountability in the exploration of such resources. Countries should develop frameworks that limit discretion, given the high risk of abuse, and allow for heavy scrutiny.”

The Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF, Paolo Mauro, emphasised the need for transparency of Sovereign Wealth Funds, adding that it was important for resource-rich countries to channel appropriately their resources to the people that needed it.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

CBN Worries as Nigeria’s Economic Activities Decline

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has expressed deep worries over the ongoing decline in economic activities within the nation.

The disclosure came from the CBN’s Deputy Governor of Corporate Services, Bala Moh’d Bello, who highlighted the grim economic landscape in his personal statement following the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

According to Bello, the country’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plummeted sharply to 39.2 index points in February 2024 from 48.5 index points recorded in the previous month. This substantial drop underscores the challenging economic environment Nigeria currently faces.

The persistent contraction in economic activity, which has endured for eight consecutive months, has been primarily attributed to various factors including exchange rate pressures, soaring inflation, security challenges, and other significant headwinds.

Bello emphasized the urgent need for well-calibrated policy decisions aimed at ensuring price stability to prevent further stifling of economic activities and avoid derailing output performance. Despite sustained increases in the monetary policy rate, inflationary pressures continue to mount, posing a significant challenge.

Inflation rates surged to 31.70 per cent in February 2024 from 29.90 per cent in the previous month, with both food and core inflation witnessing a notable uptick.

Bello attributed this alarming rise in inflation to elevated production costs, lingering security challenges, and ongoing exchange rate pressures.

The situation further escalated in March, with inflation soaring to an alarming 33.22 per cent, prompting urgent calls for coordinated efforts to address the burgeoning crisis.

The adverse effects of high inflation on citizens’ purchasing power, investment decisions, and overall output performance cannot be overstated.

While acknowledging the commendable efforts of the Federal Government in tackling food insecurity through initiatives such as releasing grains from strategic reserves, distributing seeds and fertilizers, and supporting dry season farming, Bello stressed the need for decisive action to curb the soaring inflation rate.

It’s worth noting that the MPC had recently raised the country’s interest rate to 24.75 per cent in March, reflecting the urgency and seriousness with which the CBN is approaching the economic challenges facing Nigeria.

As the nation grapples with a multitude of economic woes, including inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and security concerns, the CBN’s vigilance and proactive measures become increasingly crucial in navigating these turbulent times and steering the economy towards stability and growth.

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Economy

Sub-Saharan Africa to Double Nickel, Triple Cobalt, and Tenfold Lithium by 2050, says IMF

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In a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sub-Saharan Africa emerges as a pivotal player in the global market for critical minerals.

The IMF forecasts a significant uptick in the production of essential minerals like nickel, cobalt, and lithium in the region by the year 2050.

According to the report titled ‘Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth,’ Sub-Saharan Africa stands to double its nickel production, triple its cobalt output, and witness a tenfold increase in lithium extraction over the next three decades.

This surge is attributed to the global transition towards clean energy, which is driving the demand for these minerals used in electric vehicles, solar panels, and other renewable energy technologies.

The IMF projects that the revenues generated from the extraction of key minerals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium, could exceed $16 trillion over the next 25 years.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to capture over 10 percent of these revenues, potentially leading to a GDP increase of 12 percent or more by 2050.

The report underscores the transformative potential of this mineral wealth, emphasizing that if managed effectively, it could catalyze economic growth and development across the region.

With Sub-Saharan Africa holding about 30 percent of the world’s proven critical mineral reserves, the IMF highlights the opportunity for the region to become a major player in the global supply chain for these essential resources.

Key countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are already significant contributors to global mineral production. For instance, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounts for over 70 percent of global cobalt output and approximately half of the world’s proven reserves.

Other countries like South Africa, Gabon, Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Mali also possess significant reserves of critical minerals.

However, the report also raises concerns about the need for local processing of these minerals to capture more value and create higher-skilled jobs within the region.

While raw mineral exports contribute to revenue, processing these minerals locally could significantly increase their value and contribute to sustainable development.

The IMF calls for policymakers to focus on developing local processing industries to maximize the economic benefits of the region’s mineral wealth.

By diversifying economies and moving up the value chain, countries can reduce their vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations and enhance their resilience to external shocks.

The report concludes by advocating for regional collaboration and integration to create a more attractive market for investment in mineral processing industries.

By working together across borders, Sub-Saharan African countries can unlock the full potential of their critical mineral wealth and pave the way for sustainable economic growth and development.

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Economy

Lagos, Abuja to Host Public Engagements on Proposed Tax Policy Changes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee has announced a series of public engagements to discuss proposed tax policy changes.

Scheduled to kick off in Lagos on Thursday followed by Abuja on May 6, these sessions will help shape Nigeria’s tax structure.

Led by Chairman Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to gather insights and perspectives from stakeholders across sectors.

The focal point of these engagements is to solicit feedback on revisions to the National Tax Policy and potential amendments to tax laws and administration practices.

The significance of these public dialogues cannot be overstated. As Nigeria endeavors to fortify its economy and enhance revenue collection mechanisms, citizen input is paramount.

The engagement process underscores a commitment to democratic governance and collaborative policymaking, recognizing that tax reforms affect every facet of society.

The proposed changes are rooted in a strategic vision to stimulate economic growth while ensuring fairness and efficiency in tax administration. By harnessing diverse viewpoints, the committee seeks to craft policies that are not only robust but also reflective of the needs and aspirations of Nigerians.

Addressing the press, Chairman Taiwo Oyedele highlighted the importance of these consultations in refining the nation’s tax architecture.

He said the committee’s mandate is informed by insights gleaned from previous engagements and consultations.

The evolving nature of Nigeria’s economic landscape necessitates agility and responsiveness in policymaking, traits that these engagements seek to cultivate.

The public engagements will provide a platform for stakeholders to articulate their perspectives, concerns, and recommendations regarding tax reforms.

Participants from various sectors, including business, academia, civil society, and government agencies, are expected to contribute to robust discussions aimed at charting a path forward for Nigeria’s fiscal policy.

As the first leg of the engagements unfolds in Lagos, followed by Abuja, anticipation is high for constructive dialogue and meaningful outcomes.

The success of these engagements hinges on active participation and genuine collaboration among stakeholders, underscoring the collective responsibility to shape Nigeria’s fiscal future.

In an era marked by economic challenges and global uncertainty, proactive and inclusive policymaking is paramount.

The forthcoming public engagements represent a tangible step towards fostering transparency, accountability, and citizen engagement in Nigeria’s tax reform process.

By harnessing the collective wisdom of its citizens, Nigeria can forge a tax regime that propels sustainable economic development and fosters shared prosperity for all.

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