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FG Forces Oil Firms to Pay N1.2tn Royalty Arrears

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Kachikwu

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, said on Monday that the Federal Government had forced oil companies operating in the country to fork out N1.2tn in royalty arrears.

Kachikwu said this in Lagos while launching the Crude Oil and LNG Tracking command centre and other initiatives by the Department of Petroleum Resources.

“What COLT does for us is that we can tell every vessel that is loading crude and liquefied natural gas, and where it is going to; we can actually track today those vessels to the point of destination and discharge,” he said.

He said the country had grappled with the inability to ascertain the exact quantity of crude oil being produced as well as the leakages for decades.

The minister said, “Today, apart from tracking the production, we are also able to track the movement of the crude – the vessels that come in and go out of the country. Following those sorts of initiatives, we have launched a series of IT-based platforms and interventions. I am happy that now the DPR can give up-to-the-minute figures. We are also applying technology to the issue of gas flaring.”

Commenting on crude oil theft, he said the tracking would also help to address the gap between production and actual physical stock.

“Crude oil theft is still there; let’s not pretend about it. But under this government in the last few years, it has reduced significantly,” he added.

Kachikwu said the royalty indebtedness recovery initiative followed the President’s directive that all outstanding royalties must be recovered.

He said, “The process of determining royalties in the past was largely driven by the initiatives of oil companies, which determined what they produced, and we calculate royalties on the basis of that. Now, we are able to, using the systems we have, see what actual production volumes are to determine royalties.

“Under the rules, you will not get renewal unless you pay your outstanding royalties. What we have done is that for those who have shown the seriousness in mapping out how they intend to settle that, we will renew (their licences) but we won’t give them the final certificate until they have liquidated the outstanding royalties.”

Kachikwu added, “We have raised N1.2tn so far as a result of this aggressive royalty recovery. Clearly, when we finish, we will at least have a situation where everybody who is operating is current in terms of their payments.”

President Muhammadu Buhari, in his 2019 budget speech to the National Assembly in December, said the volatility in oil prices, and disruptions in oil production delayed the plans to recover past due oil licence and royalty charges as well as the restructuring of the joint venture oil assets.

“As we have returned to the path of growth, I have directed that action on all our revenue initiatives be expedited. I have already issued a number of Presidential directives on the disposal of recovered assets, deployment of the National Trade Window as well as the immediate recovery of past-due oil royalties including by crude seizures, if necessary,” he added.

Kachikwu said one of the key areas for the ministry was to ensure transparency in operations and speed.

He said, “Previously, it took almost forever for people to get licences for simple things like licensing of filling stations, plants and all that.”

“We have also launched the benchmarking system to track expenses and see how we can continue in our process to try and reduce the cost of producing oil in this country which has been a major challenge for us. And given the oscillating price of oil globally, unless we are able to do this, you will produce oil and not make money out of it. So, this is very helpful for us.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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President Tinubu Defends Tough Economic Decisions at World Economic Forum

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Bola Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu stood firm in defense of Nigeria’s recent tough economic decisions during his address at the World Economic Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Speaking to a gathering of global business leaders, Tinubu justified the removal of fuel subsidies and the management of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market as necessary measures to prevent the country from bankruptcy and reset its economy towards growth.

In his speech, Tinubu acknowledged the challenges and drawbacks associated with these decisions but emphasized that they were in the best interest of Nigeria.

He described the removal of fuel subsidies as a difficult yet essential action to avert bankruptcy and ensure the country’s economic stability.

Despite the expected difficulties, Tinubu highlighted the government’s efforts to implement parallel arrangements to cushion the impact on vulnerable populations, demonstrating a commitment to inclusive governance.

Regarding the management of the foreign exchange market, Tinubu emphasized the need to remove artificial value elements in Nigeria’s currency to foster competitiveness and transparency.

While acknowledging the turbulence associated with such decisions, he underscored the government’s preparedness to manage the challenges through inclusive governance and effective communication with the public.

Moreover, Tinubu used the platform to call on the global community to pay attention to the root causes of poverty and instability in Africa’s Sahel region.

He emphasized the importance of economic collaborations and inclusiveness in achieving stability and growth, urging bigger economies to actively participate in promoting prosperity in the region.

Tinubu’s defense of Nigeria’s economic policies reflects the government’s commitment to making tough but necessary decisions to steer the country towards sustainable growth and development.

As the world grapples with geopolitical tensions, inflation, and supply chain disruptions, Tinubu’s message at the World Economic Forum underscores the importance of collaborative action and inclusive governance in addressing critical global challenges.

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Economy

IMF: Nigeria’s 2024 Growth Outlook Revised Upward – Coronation Economic Note

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IMF - Investors King

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF revised its global growth forecast for 2024 upward to 3.2% y/y from 3.1% y/y projected in its January ’24 WEO.

Meanwhile, the growth outlook for 2025 was unchanged at 3.2% y/y. It is worth highlighting that global growth projections for 2024 and 2025 remain below the historical (2000-2019) average of 3.8%.

Persistence inflationary pressure, turbulence in China’s property sector, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and financial stress continue to pose downside risk to global growth projection.

There was an upward growth revision for United States to 2.7% y/y from 2.1% y/y. The upward revision can be partly attributed to a stronger than expected growth in the US economy in Q4 ‘23 bolstered by healthier consumption patterns; stronger momentum is expected in 2024.

Growth in China remains steady at 4.6% y/y. This is consistent with the projection recorded in its January ’24 WEO, as post pandemic boost to consumption and fiscal stimulus eases off amid headwinds in the property sector. We expect a loosening or a hold stance in the near-term as China continues to seek ways to bolster its economy.

On the flip side, GDP growth was revised downward (marginally) for the Eurozone to 0.8% y/y from 0.9% y/y (in its January ’23 WEO) for 2024. The growth projection for the United Kingdom was also revised downwards to 0.5% y/y from 0.6% y/y.

Russia’s growth forecast was revised upward to 3.2% y/y from 2.6% y/y (in its January ’24 WEO) for 2024. This revision was largely due to high investment and robust private consumption supported by wage growth.

The projection for average global inflation was revised upward to 5.9% y/y for 2024 from 5.8% y/y (in its January ’24 WEO), with an expectation of a decline to 4.5% y/y in 2025.

This is reflective of the cooling effects of monetary policy tightening across advanced and emerging economies.

Based on IMF projections, we anticipate a swifter decline in headline inflation rates averaging near 2% in 2025 among advanced economies before the avg. inflation figure for developing economies returns to pre-pandemic rate of c.5%.

This is driven by tight monetary policies, softening labor markets, and the fading passthrough effects from earlier declines in relative prices, notably energy prices.

We understand that moderations in headline inflation have prompted central banks of select economies to slow down on further policy rate hikes.

For instance, the US Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts three times this year if macro-indicators align with expectations. Also, the UK and ECB are likely to reduce their level of policy restriction if they become more confident that inflation is moving towards the 2% target.

The growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa remains steady at 3.8% y/y for 2024. The unchanged projection can be partly attributed to expectations around growth dynamics in Angola, notably contraction in its oil sector, which was offset by an upward revision for Nigeria’s GDP growth estimate.

For Nigeria, IMF revised its 2024 growth forecast upward to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% y/y (in its January ’24 WEO). This revision partly reflects the elevated oil price environment. Bonny Light has increased by 14.6% from the start of the year to USD89.3/b (as at April 2024).

Other upside risks include relatively stable growth in select sectors, improved fx market dynamics as well as ongoing restrictive monetary stance by the CBN.

Nigeria’s headline inflation has steadily recorded upticks (currently at 33.2% y/y as of March ‘24). Our end-year inflation forecast (base-case scenario) is 35.8% y/y. The ongoing geopolitical tension could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, driving commodity prices, and exerting pressure on purchasing
power.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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