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Oil Licensing: Nigeria Lags as Angola, Others Move Ahead

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Oil
  • Oil Licensing: Nigeria Lags as Angola, Others Move Ahead

Stakeholders in the nation’s oil and gas industry are still left guessing about when a major licensing round or at least a marginal fields bid round will be held amid a lull in exploration activities.

Nigeria has the second largest proven reserves in Africa, with an estimated 37.5 billion barrels of crude oil deposits at the end of 2017, representing 2.2 per cent of the global total, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.

The country has the largest proven gas reserves on the continent at 5.2 trillion cubic metres.

If current levels of production and reserves remain constant, the country is forecast to run out of oil in 51.6 years and natural gas in 110.2 years, according to BP data.

Over the past few years, industry stakeholders have stressed the need for the country to increase its oil and gas reserves.

The last major licensing round was held in 2007, while the most recent bidding round for marginal fields was in 2003.

The number of active oil rigs in Nigeria fell by 17.6 per cent to 28 in November from 34 in October, data obtained from Baker Hughes Incorporated and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries showed.

Rig count is largely a reflection of the level of exploration, development and production activities occurring in the oil and gas sector.

Angola, Africa’s second-biggest producer after Nigeria, is putting the finishing touches on its first oil licensing round in eight years, hoping to replace dwindling production at some maturing fields and seeing renewed investor appetite in its oil industry.

Its Minister of Mineral Resources and Petroleum, Diamantino Azevedo, was quoted by S&P Global Platts in an interview this month that the country was preparing a strategy for onshore and offshore oil and gas blocks licensing for the period 2019 through 2025.

Last week, Norway’s Ministry of Petroleum and Energy said it had awarded a record number of production licences (83) in the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea under the country’s latest Awards in Pre-defined Areas exploration round.

The APA 2018 licensing round comprises blocks in predefined areas and a total of 83 licenses were distributed over the North Sea (37), the Norwegian Sea (32) and the Barents Sea (14).

A total of 33 different oil companies, ranging from the large international majors to smaller domestic exploration companies, were awarded ownership interests in one or more production licences.

“This is the largest licensing award on the Norwegian continental shelf. 53 years after the first licensing round, this new record confirms the industry’s belief in continued value creation and activity in Norway,” the Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Mr Kjell-Børge Freiberg, said.

As part of efforts to reduce its reliance on oil imports, one of Nigeria’s biggest customers, India, has offered 14 blocks for oil and gas exploration in the latest auction round under which winning bidders can carve out areas for drilling.

The second round of the country’s Open Acreage Licensing Policy opened for bids on January 8 and will close on March 12. These blocks are expected to be awarded in May, according to S&P Global Platts.

It will be the second auction under the new Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy approved by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government in March 2016. The first round was launched in January last year.

HELP forms part of a government strategy to double India’s oil and gas output by 2022-2023.

Reuters reported last month that 16 oil and gas firms had submitted applications for one or more of five Ghanaian offshore blocks in the West African country’s first exploration licensing round.

Ghana, which currently produces 200,000 barrels of oil per day, is keen to unlock more resources after it began pumping from its flagship offshore Jubilee field in 2010.

“Τhe high level of interest shown by major International Oil Companies in our first licensing round is a vote of confidence in the Ghanaian economy,” Deputy Minister for energy in charge of petroleum, Mohammed Amin Adam, was quoted as saying.

The Managing Director, Neconde Energy Limited, Mr Frank Edozie, told our correspondent that most operators in the Nigerian oil industry had slashed spending on exploration activities.

The delay in passing the Petroleum Industry Bill had brought about “significant amount of uncertainty” about the future of the industry.

He said, “What that has done is that people are hedging their bets; nobody is exposing themselves in terms of significant expenditure on exploration. Exploration is looking for production of the future. Because the future of the industry is not clear due to uncertainty around the bill that will become law to govern the industry, people are shying away from investing in exploration.

“That is one of the reasons it is critical for the industry that there is a bill that is passed into law. Clearly, our reserves are declining. We are eating the accumulated food from yesterday, so to say. In another two to three years, if things don’t change, we will begin to see the results of this in our ability to meet our production quota.”

The Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Waltersmith Petroman Oil Limited, Mr Abdulrazaq Isa, told our correspondent that some indigenous operators had been waiting for licensing rounds in recent years.

He said, “Our game is all about reserve replacement. The longevity of your business is driven by the size of your reserves and the moment you begin to produce an asset, you are already draining it. So, you need to replace those you have produced.

“Some assets need to come into the market so we can bid for them and in order to extend the longevity of the nation’s reserves. Our members are waiting anxiously. So, I can tell you that there will be a lot of activity in that space once that (marginal bid round) happens.”

According to Isa, Waltersmith needs additional feedstock for the 5,000bpd modular refinery it is currently building.

“We are looking to expand it (the refinery) to about 30,000 bpd. So we are going to need additional oil feedstock for our expansion programme. We need access to these resources; so we are very keen to participate in any new licensing rounds.”

The Chairman/Chief Executive Officer, International Energy Services Limited, Dr Diran Fawibe, noted that the appetite for exploration had been very low in Nigeria since 2014 when the crisis in the global oil and gas industry started.

Lamenting the delay in the passage of PIB, Fawibe said “the unpredictability of the direction the government is going regarding the oil and gas industry” had affected investments.

“There is a need to finalise the PIB, remove the uncertainty and let foreign direct investment come into the country. But unfortunately, this has not caught the interest of our lawmakers to do justice to this,” he added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Seme Border Sees 90% Decline in Trade Activity Due to CFA Fluctuations

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The Seme Border, a vital trade link between Nigeria and its neighboring countries, has reported a 90% decline in trade activity due to the volatile fluctuations in the CFA franc against the Nigerian naira.

Licensed customs agents operating at the border have voiced concerns over the adverse impact of currency instability on cross-border trade.

In a conversation with the media in Lagos, Mr. Godon Ogonnanya, the Special Adviser to the President of the National Association of Government Approved Freight Forwarders, Seme Chapter, shed light on the drastic reduction in trade activities at the border post.

Ogonnanya explained the pivotal role of the CFA franc in facilitating trade transactions, saying the border’s bustling activities were closely tied to the relative strength of the CFA against the naira.

According to Ogonnanya, trade activities thrived at the Seme Border when the CFA franc was weaker compared to the naira.

However, the fluctuating nature of the CFA exchange rate has led to uncertainty and instability in trade transactions, causing a significant downturn in business operations at the border.

“The CFA rate is the reason activities are low here. In those days when the CFA was a little bit down, activities were much there but now that the rate has gone up, it is affecting the business,” Ogonnanya explained.

The unpredictability of the CFA exchange rate has added complexity to trade operations, with importers facing challenges in budgeting and planning due to sudden shifts in currency values.

Ogonnanya highlighted the cascading effects of currency fluctuations, wherein importers incur additional costs as the value of the CFA rises against the naira during the clearance process.

Despite the significant drop in trade activity, Ogonnanya expressed optimism that the situation would gradually improve at the border.

He attributed his optimism to the recent policy interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which have led to the stabilization of the naira and restored confidence among traders.

In addition to currency-related challenges, customs agents cited discrepancies in clearance procedures between Cotonou Port and the Seme Border as a contributing factor to the decline in trade.

Importers face additional costs and complexities in clearing goods at both locations, discouraging trade activities and leading to a substantial decrease in business volume.

The decline in trade activity at the Seme Border underscores the urgent need for policy measures to address currency volatility and streamline trade processes.

As stakeholders navigate these challenges, there is a collective call for collaborative efforts between government agencies and industry players to revive cross-border trade and foster economic growth in the region.

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CBN Worries as Nigeria’s Economic Activities Decline

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has expressed deep worries over the ongoing decline in economic activities within the nation.

The disclosure came from the CBN’s Deputy Governor of Corporate Services, Bala Moh’d Bello, who highlighted the grim economic landscape in his personal statement following the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

According to Bello, the country’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plummeted sharply to 39.2 index points in February 2024 from 48.5 index points recorded in the previous month. This substantial drop underscores the challenging economic environment Nigeria currently faces.

The persistent contraction in economic activity, which has endured for eight consecutive months, has been primarily attributed to various factors including exchange rate pressures, soaring inflation, security challenges, and other significant headwinds.

Bello emphasized the urgent need for well-calibrated policy decisions aimed at ensuring price stability to prevent further stifling of economic activities and avoid derailing output performance. Despite sustained increases in the monetary policy rate, inflationary pressures continue to mount, posing a significant challenge.

Inflation rates surged to 31.70 per cent in February 2024 from 29.90 per cent in the previous month, with both food and core inflation witnessing a notable uptick.

Bello attributed this alarming rise in inflation to elevated production costs, lingering security challenges, and ongoing exchange rate pressures.

The situation further escalated in March, with inflation soaring to an alarming 33.22 per cent, prompting urgent calls for coordinated efforts to address the burgeoning crisis.

The adverse effects of high inflation on citizens’ purchasing power, investment decisions, and overall output performance cannot be overstated.

While acknowledging the commendable efforts of the Federal Government in tackling food insecurity through initiatives such as releasing grains from strategic reserves, distributing seeds and fertilizers, and supporting dry season farming, Bello stressed the need for decisive action to curb the soaring inflation rate.

It’s worth noting that the MPC had recently raised the country’s interest rate to 24.75 per cent in March, reflecting the urgency and seriousness with which the CBN is approaching the economic challenges facing Nigeria.

As the nation grapples with a multitude of economic woes, including inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and security concerns, the CBN’s vigilance and proactive measures become increasingly crucial in navigating these turbulent times and steering the economy towards stability and growth.

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Sub-Saharan Africa to Double Nickel, Triple Cobalt, and Tenfold Lithium by 2050, says IMF

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In a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sub-Saharan Africa emerges as a pivotal player in the global market for critical minerals.

The IMF forecasts a significant uptick in the production of essential minerals like nickel, cobalt, and lithium in the region by the year 2050.

According to the report titled ‘Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth,’ Sub-Saharan Africa stands to double its nickel production, triple its cobalt output, and witness a tenfold increase in lithium extraction over the next three decades.

This surge is attributed to the global transition towards clean energy, which is driving the demand for these minerals used in electric vehicles, solar panels, and other renewable energy technologies.

The IMF projects that the revenues generated from the extraction of key minerals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium, could exceed $16 trillion over the next 25 years.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to capture over 10 percent of these revenues, potentially leading to a GDP increase of 12 percent or more by 2050.

The report underscores the transformative potential of this mineral wealth, emphasizing that if managed effectively, it could catalyze economic growth and development across the region.

With Sub-Saharan Africa holding about 30 percent of the world’s proven critical mineral reserves, the IMF highlights the opportunity for the region to become a major player in the global supply chain for these essential resources.

Key countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are already significant contributors to global mineral production. For instance, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounts for over 70 percent of global cobalt output and approximately half of the world’s proven reserves.

Other countries like South Africa, Gabon, Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Mali also possess significant reserves of critical minerals.

However, the report also raises concerns about the need for local processing of these minerals to capture more value and create higher-skilled jobs within the region.

While raw mineral exports contribute to revenue, processing these minerals locally could significantly increase their value and contribute to sustainable development.

The IMF calls for policymakers to focus on developing local processing industries to maximize the economic benefits of the region’s mineral wealth.

By diversifying economies and moving up the value chain, countries can reduce their vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations and enhance their resilience to external shocks.

The report concludes by advocating for regional collaboration and integration to create a more attractive market for investment in mineral processing industries.

By working together across borders, Sub-Saharan African countries can unlock the full potential of their critical mineral wealth and pave the way for sustainable economic growth and development.

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