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Nigeria Has Serious Revenue Problem

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budget
  • Nigeria Has Serious Revenue Problem –Budget Office

Nigeria is currently facing a serious revenue problem, the Director of Budget in the Ministry of Budget and National Planning, Ben Akabueze, declared on Wednesday.

Akabueze also revealed that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation was subsidising every litre of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, consumed in the country by N53.

He, however, referred to the sum as under-recovery, stressing that it was the term that the NNPC often called it.

He stated these while answering questions from participants at the Strategic Dialogues on the Morocco-Nigeria Relations in Abuja.

Akabueze said, “For us in Nigeria, lately there has been a lot of talk about government’s borrowings and those who talk about it are justified to express the concern. But the truth is that I think we are generally having the wrong discussion. I personally don’t think we have a debt problem, but we have a serious revenue problem, which, if we do not address, will snowball into a debt problem.

“But instead of having a discussion around the revenue issue, we are talking about the debt. Morocco, for instance, has a 63 per cent debt to GDP ratio; we have a 20 per cent debt to GDP ratio. Morocco has over 3.4 per cent deficit to the GDP ratio; we have a statutory cap of three per cent.”

He added, “The real issue is that in 2017, for instance, our debt service to revenue ratio crossed 60 per cent. There are two options of a policy standpoint in trying to address the numerator, which is debt, at a time when you have huge infrastructure deficit that needs to be addressed.

“And this is also at a time when the economy remains pretty fragile and, therefore, government spending is critical to sustain and drive growth. Therefore, focusing on the numerator in times like this may not be the solution. This is why revenue is what we need to focus on.”

Akabueze talked about oil price and stated that despite the rise in the cost of crude, there had been no corresponding growth in Nigeria’s revenue.

This, he said, was because the country was spending more to import virtually all the refined products from crude oil.

The budget director stated, “On oil price, for us it is a double-edged sword unfortunately. This ought to be a season where we should be clicking glasses with regards to the oil price. But right now, practically every drop of refined petroleum product that we consume in the country is imported.

“And the one single factor that determines the price of refined product is the price of crude. In essence, while we export the crude at about $80 (per barrel), we effectively import back the same crude at about $100 importation price for refined products. And that explains why despite the strong oil prices, we are not seeing a corresponding growth in government revenue.”

On the amount being spent by the NNPC in subsidising PMS, Akabueze stated that the huge financial outlay had also dragged down the country’s revenue.

“Also at the moment, in terms of pricing of petroleum products, for every litre of petrol, there is a N53 under-recovery. Well, that is the term that the NNPC, which has this responsibility, calls it and so who am I? This represents a significant value for us. Hence, the need to diversify the economy remains urgent,” he added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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