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Oil Hits $84, Nigerian Cargoes Struggle for Buyers

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  • Oil Hits $84, Nigerian Cargoes Struggle for Buyers

International oil benchmark, Brent crude, extended its gains on Monday, rising to its highest level of $84 per barrel since November 2014.

The further rise in oil prices came on the back of supply concerns before United States sanctions against Iran come into force next month.

The recent increase in oil prices has prompted talk that crude could reach $100 per barrel for the first time since prices slumped in mid-2014, when Brent peaked at $115 per barrel.

Brent crude, against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, increased by $1.59 to $84.32 per barrel as of 6:30pm Nigerian time, while US West Texas Intermediate rose by $1.67 to $74.92 per barrel.

Last week, Brent crude rose above the $80 per barrel mark as the market tightened and after Saudi Arabia and Russia ruled out any immediate increase in production despite calls by US President Donald Trump for action to raise global supply.

Oil prices rose by 4.1 per cent in the third quarter of this year to $82.72 per barrel, the highest level in nearly four years.

Meanwhile, Nigerian grades struggled to find buyers on Monday, Reuters quoted traders as saying.

The Nigerian market was said to be struggling with an overhang of close to 20 unsold cargoes from the 58-strong October loading programme, while the November programme, the largest in six months, had seen fairly muted demand so far.

The 15-member Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped a 2018 high of 32.85 million barrels per day in September, according to the Reuters monthly survey, up by 90,000 bpd from August’s revised level.

Iran has no plans to cut oil production, the head of the state-run National Iranian Oil Company, Ali Kardor said, according to the Tasnim news agency.

India’s MRPL is looking for up to four million barrels of crude, two million barrels for delivery from November 6-20 and another two million for delivery from December 6-20. The tender closes on October 3 and the results are due by October 5.

BP was said to have won a tender to supply Turkey’s Tupras with Forcados, one of Nigerian grades, for delivery from November 5-15, two traders said.

US sanctions on Iran’s energy industry, which come into force on November 4, are designed to cut crude exports from the third-biggest producer in OPEC.

“Iran has attempted to downplay the impact of looming US sanctions by claiming that it has no intention of reducing oil production. However, such optimistic claims are falling on deaf ears,” PVM Oil Associates strategist, Stephen Brennock, said.

Several major buyers in India and China have signalled that they would cut purchases of Iranian oil. China’s Sinopec said it had halved loadings of Iranian oil in September.

With about 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil expected to go offline on November 4, prices could “rocket higher with the flashy $100 per barrel price tag indeed a reasonable-sounding target” if investors doubted the Saudis’ ability to respond with enough extra output, said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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