Connect with us

Economy

Infrastructure: FG Needs to Borrow More, Says Expert

Published

on

  • Infrastructure: FG Needs to Borrow More, Says Expert

The Federal Government must take more loans if its plan to fund infrastructure is to be realised, according to the Senior Analyst at Agusto & Co, Mr Jimi Ogbobine.

Ogbobine said this on Sunday at a training for financial journalists during the Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria 2018 annual workshop in Lagos, according to the News Agency of Nigeria.

He stated that the government was expected to deploy about N1.6tn to fund infrastructure this year.

Ogbobine said the bulk of financing for infrastructure would come from borrowing, with a larger share being domestic debts.

He also noted that funding the capital budget would require higher than planned borrowing with adverse implications for interest rates and interest costs for the economy.

He stated, “The Federal Government’s borrowing to fund infrastructure is likely to be between N1.2tn and N1.6tn. The implementation is unlikely to start before the second quarter and revenue is likely to be lower than planned.

“Actual funding from asset restructuring, recoveries and others may be substantially lower than the planned level of N2tn. Therefore, fully funding the capital budget will mean higher than planned borrowing with adverse implications for interest rates and interest costs.”

He added that the obligatory spending of the Federal Government was still more than 100 per cent of revenues, hence, there was no free cash flow for investment in infrastructure.

Ogbobine noted, “Every kobo of infrastructure spending is financed by debt, which constraints the ability to fully fund budgeted amounts. Debt as a percentage of revenue is significantly higher than the median of 200 per cent for countries in Middle East & Africa.

“The Federal Government plans to partly finance the 2018 capital expenditure with proceeds of asset sales.”

Speaking on inflation, he said a hyper inflationary environment was one where prices double at least every three years.

He added, “This means inflation rate of about 25 per cent per annum. In such environments, investors hold savings in low inflation currencies like dollars, pounds sterling and euros. Also, business persons price products, particularly those with a high import content, in these low inflation currencies, usually the dollar.

“In effect, such environments are dual currency environments. Real Gross Domestic Product per capita should grow in 2018, making it easier for businessmen to access forex to fund their operations. Therefore, most businesses should see top line and profit growths, while unemployment rate will fall but the level will remain high.”

The analyst said actual deficit might be lower than the projected deficit largely because of a low implementation of the capital budget.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

Published

on

Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

Continue Reading

Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

Published

on

IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

Continue Reading

Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

Published

on

South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending