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CBN and Real Sector Intervention

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King
  • CBN and Real Sector Intervention

Globally, the relationship between the financial system and real sector development remains very critical for any economy to realise its potential.

No economy can grow and improve the living standards of its population in the absence of credit to the real sector.

That is why the real sector depends largely on the flow of funds from the banking system.

Many economists have acknowledged that the financial system, with banks as its major component, provide linkages for the different sectors of the economy and encourage high level of specialisation, expertise, economies of scale and a conducive environment for the implementation of various economic policies of government intended to achieve non-inflationary growth, exchange rate stability, balance of payments equilibrium and high levels of employment.

Well-functioning financial systems can mobilise household savings, allocate resources efficiently, diversify risk, enhance the flow of liquidityand reduce information asymmetry.

However, in Nigeria, because of the high level of risk in the system, a lot of commercial banks have remained apathetic towards lending and havebeen largely criticised for this.

That is why in addition to its core functions, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has over the years performed some major development financefunctions, focused on key sectors of the Nigerian economy.

That was why at its July 2018 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the CBN had emphasised the need to increase the flow of credit to the real sector of the economy to consolidate and sustain economic recovery.

To achieve this objective, the central bank had also stated that banks would henceforth be incentivised to direct affordable, long-term bank credit to the manufacturing, agriculture, as well as other sectors considered as employment and growth stimulating.

This clearly was why its guidelines for accessing the Real Sector Support Facility (RSSF) through Cash Reserve Requirements (CRR) and Corporate Bonds (CBs) was released last Thursday.

The New Guidelines

In the RSSF, the CBN clearly pointed out that activities to be covered under the programme would be Greenfield (new) and expansion (Brownfield) projects in manufacturing, agriculture and other related sectors approved by the CBN.
It, however, stated that emphasis would be placed on Greenfield projects.

It prohibited operators involved in trading activities from accessing its real sector support facility and warned banks that attempt to “falsify through presentation of projects that do not meet the eligibility criteria/specified terms and conditions shall attract severe penalties”.

The facility shall have minimum tenor of seven years and two years moratorium. Also, participating financial institution (PFI) shall bear the credit risk.

But under the new guidelines, the CBN pointed out that banks interested in providing credit financing to Greenfield (new) and Brownfield (new/expansion) projects in the real sector (agriculture and manufacturing) may request the release of funds from their CRR to finance the projects, subject to the bank providing verifiable evidence that the funds shall be directed at the projects approved by the CBN.

Also, it stressed that refinancing of existing loans is prohibited for funding under the programme, saying that any attempt to falsify information would also attract severe sanctions.

It stated: “This programme involves investment by the CBN and the general public in CBs issued by Corporate subject to the intensified transparency requirements for Triple A-rated entities.

“Such requirements would include publishing through printing of an Information Memorandum spelling out the details of the projects for which the funds are required together with terms and conditions showing that these are long term projects that are employment and growth stimulating.”

The new guidelines stressed that priority would be accorded projects with high local content, import substitution, foreign exchange earnings and potential for job creation.

According to the CBN, the objectives of the facility includes to improve access to affordable finance to the manufacturing, agricultural, and other related sectors that are employment and growth stimulating to the economy.
In addition, it is aimed at stimulating growth in employment-elastic sectors.

Providing insights into the differentiated CRR (DCRR) system, the guidelines stated: “It shall comprise loans to Greenfield or expansion projects using CRR. Emphasis shall, however, be on new projects.”

In terms of CBs, which are financing instruments issued by corporates that meet eligibility criteria as specified by the CBN, the tenor shall be as specified in the prospectus by the issuing corporate but not below seven years. Also, the moratorium for such CBs shall be as specified in the prospectus by the issuing corporate.

It specified: “The maximum facility shall be N10 billion per project. Facilities are to be administered at an all-in interest rate/charge of 9 per cent per annum. Bank customers are encouraged to report any bank to the CBN’s Director of Banking Supervision, where such DMB may have charged interest rates above the prescribed maximum of nine percent per annum.

“Repayments shall be amortised and remitted on quarterly basis to the CBN.
“Only CRR contributing DMBs shall be eligible to participate under the DCRR. For CBs, all financial institutions and general public are eligible to participate in investing in CBs.”

Boost for Economic Recovery

Analysts at CSL Stockbrokers Limited commended the CBN’s efforts to support the sluggish recovery in the economy.

They, however, noted that the fundamental structural and socio-economic issues limiting banks from increasing their risk appetite for lending to the real sector needs to be addressed.

“Incessant clashes between farmers and herdsmen in the “food basket states” as well as the widening infrastructure deficit (particularly power and road) will continue to hinder the productivity of the real sectors.

“That said, if the programme is well implemented, it should ease the liquidity squeeze in the real sectors, providing the finance required for expanding capacity, and ultimately stimulating economic growth,” the Lagos-based investment bank stated.

Also, the Director General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Mr. Muda Yusuf, described the initiative a positive development, saying it would help increase the flow of credit to the private sector.

“It is a very good initiative by the CBN. As service sector players, we have always canvased for low interest rate and have always complained about high interest rate for businesses.

“Each time the Monetary Policy Committee met, they kept tightening the benchmark interest rate which meant that the cost of borrowing would remain high.

So, the issue of adjusted CRR is an innovative approach which would help to boost investment through low-cost funds and longer tenor funds as well. So, it is a good initiative,” he added.

But, Yusuf appealed to the CBN to also design such intervention schemes for other sectors of the economy, which according to him needs support.

He listed such sectors to include the service, construction, maritime, transportation, healthcare, education, entertainment and tourism sectors.

“All these sectors also bring value to the economy and generate employment. So, we need to look beyond the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, because these other sectors are also adding value and they also need funding.

“The guidelines also said the funds cannot be used for refinancing, but only for greenfield and brownfield. But my appeal to the CBN also is that existing investors are as important as new investors.

“If anything, I think we need to get those who are already in business to be properly on their feet. We need to stabilise them and support them to be more productive, to accelerate the economic recovery process.

“Many of the firms are under the heavy burden of debt servicing which is very costly. So, I don’t see anything wrong in easing the pressure for them with this kind of facility.

“So, I don’t support the idea of excluding them completely from the facility,” the LCCI boss stated.

Also, the Managing Director, Cowry Assets Management Limited, Mr Johnson Chukwu, welcomed the initiative, saying it would help unlock the flow of credit.

Commenting on the adjusted CRR initiative, he said, “In principle, it is avery creative initiative. It may not completely address the issue of the real sector, but it will would help towards improving the performance of firms.

“The reality is that it is hard for the real sector operators to be payinginterest of between 22 to 25 percent and remain profitable.

“So, to give them loan at nine per cent is quite creative and will certainly ease their problems.”

Chukwu, however, stressed the need for the monetary policy and the fiscal policy authorities to continue to work towards achieving single digit interest rate in the economy and not just for real sector operators.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Climb on Renewed Middle East Concerns and Saudi Supply Signals

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Crude oil

As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties, oil prices rose on Monday on renewed concerns in the Middle East and signals from Saudi Arabia regarding its crude supply.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, surged by 51 cents to $83.47 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 53 cents to $78.64 a barrel.

The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Hamas has amplified fears of a widening conflict in the key oil-producing region, prompting investors to closely monitor developments.

Talks for a ceasefire in Gaza have been underway, but prospects for a deal appeared slim as Hamas reiterated its demand for an end to the war in exchange for the release of hostages, a demand rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The uncertainty surrounding the conflict was further exacerbated on Monday when Israel’s military called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate Rafah as part of a ‘limited scope’ operation, sparking concerns of a potential ground assault.

Analysts warned that such developments risk derailing ceasefire negotiations and reigniting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, Saudi Arabia announced an increase in the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude sold to Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in June.

This move signaled the kingdom’s anticipation of strong demand during the summer months and contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices.

The uptick in prices comes after both Brent and WTI crude futures posted their steepest weekly losses in three months last week, reflecting concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the timing of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

However, with most of the long positions in oil cleared last week, analysts suggest that the risks are skewed towards a rebound in prices in the early part of this week, particularly for WTI prices towards the $80 mark.

Meanwhile, in China, the world’s largest crude importer, services activity remained in expansionary territory for the 16th consecutive month, signaling a sustained economic recovery.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the second consecutive week, indicating a potential tightening of supply in the near term.

As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, investors remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Drop Sharply, Marking Steepest Weekly Decline in Three Months

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Amidst concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the potential timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, oil prices record its sharpest weekly decline in three months.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, settled 71 cents lower to close at $82.96 a barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 84 cents, or 1.06% to end the week at $78.11 a barrel.

The primary driver behind this decline was investor apprehension regarding the impact of sustained borrowing costs on the U.S. economy, the world’s foremost oil consumer. These concerns were amplified after the Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates at their current levels this week.

Throughout the week, Brent experienced a decline of over 7%, while WTI dropped by 6.8%.

The slowdown in U.S. job growth, revealed in April’s data, coupled with a cooling annual wage gain, intensified expectations among traders for a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank.

Tim Snyder, an economist at Matador Economics, noted that while the economy is experiencing a slight deceleration, the data presents a pathway for the Fed to enact at least one rate cut this year.

The Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged this week, despite acknowledging elevated inflation levels, has prompted a reassessment of the anticipated timing for potential rate cuts, according to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.

Higher interest rates typically exert downward pressure on economic activity and can dampen oil demand.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the second consecutive week, reaching the lowest count since January 2022, as reported by Baker Hughes.

The oil and gas rig count fell by eight to 605, with the number of oil rigs dropping by seven to 499, the most significant weekly decline since November 2023.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict have somewhat eased as discussions for a temporary ceasefire progress with international mediators.

Looking ahead, the next meeting of OPEC+ oil producers is scheduled for June 1, where the group may consider extending voluntary oil output cuts beyond June if global oil demand fails to pick up.

In light of these developments, money managers reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week leading up to April 30, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound After Three Days of Losses

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Crude oil - Investors King

After enduring a three-day decline, oil prices recovered on Thursday, offering a glimmer of hope to investors amid a volatile market landscape.

The rebound was fueled by a combination of factors ranging from geopolitical developments to supply concerns.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria oil is priced, surged by 79 cents, or 0.95% to $84.23 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 69 cents, or 0.87% to $79.69 per barrel.

This turnaround came on the heels of a significant downturn that had pushed prices to their lowest levels since mid-March.

The recent slump in oil prices was primarily attributed to a confluence of factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and concerns surrounding stubborn inflation, which could potentially dampen economic growth and limit oil demand.

Also, unexpected data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealing a substantial increase in U.S. crude inventories added further pressure on oil prices.

“The updated inventory statistics were probably the most salient price driver over the course of yesterday’s trading session,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

Crude inventories surged by 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations and casting a shadow over market sentiment.

However, the tide began to turn as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas gained traction, offering a glimmer of hope for stability in the volatile Middle East region.

The prospect of a ceasefire agreement, spearheaded by Egypt, injected optimism into the market, offsetting concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions.

“As the impact of the U.S. crude stock build and the Fed signaling higher-for-longer rates is close to being fully baked in, attention will turn towards the outcome of the Gaza talks,” noted Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.

The potential for a resolution in the Israel-Hamas conflict provided a ray of hope, contributing to the positive momentum in oil markets.

Despite the optimism surrounding ceasefire talks, tensions in the Middle East remain palpable, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating plans for a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

The precarious geopolitical climate continues to underpin volatility in oil markets, reminding investors of the inherent risks associated with the commodity.

In addition to geopolitical developments, speculation regarding U.S. government buying for strategic reserves added further support to oil prices.

With the U.S. expressing intentions to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at prices below $79 a barrel, market participants closely monitored price movements, anticipating potential intervention to stabilize prices.

“The oil market was supported by speculation that if WTI falls below $79, the U.S. will move to build up its strategic reserves,” highlighted Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, owned by Nissan Securities.

As oil markets navigate a complex web of geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, the recent rebound underscores the resilience of the commodity in the face of adversity.

While challenges persist, the renewed optimism offers a ray of hope for stability and growth in the oil sector, providing investors with a semblance of confidence amidst a volatile landscape.

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