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Nigerian Crude Exports Set for Four-month High

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  • Nigerian Crude Exports Set for Four-month High

The nation’s oil exports are expected to rise to their highest in four months in October, on the back of supply of several larger grades coming back online following a series of pipeline outages in the last couple of months.

Loading of Nigerian crude will rise to 1.73 million barrels per day from September’s 1.41 million bpd. October’s will be the largest programme since June this year, but it is smaller than the 1.768 million bpd exported in October last year, according to Reuters.

The export plan comprised 57 cargoes, compared with 48 cargoes in September’s loading schedule, the report added.

Both the Qua Iboe and the Forcados streams will load fewer cargoes, while Bonny Light contains the same number of cargoes and Escravos will load one extra.

Exports of these three major streams will drop by 14 per cent in October to around 540,000 bpd from September’s 630,000 bpd rate.

The export plans showed several smaller streams would add at least one cargo in October, including Pennington, Okwori and Antan.

Nigerian oil export plans are prone to revisions and delays, with cargoes frequently pushed from one month to the next.

According to traders, the overhang of Nigerian oil cargoes continues to clear after a series of spot sales this week cut the existing surplus by more than half.

The number of unsold cargoes from the August and September programmes was said to have dropped to less than a dozen, from close to 30 at the start of the week.

Meanwhile, shipments of West African crude to Asia are expected to reach a record high in August, driven by a surge in demand from Indian refiners, who will take more oil from the region than at any time since mid-2015.

According to a Reuters’ survey of shipping fixtures and traders, some 890,000 bpd of West African crude will sail to India, compared with 600,000 bpd in July and almost double last August’s 460,000 bpd.

Total loading for Asia will rise to 2.586 million bpd this month from 2.44 million bpd in July and 2.176 million bpd last August.

Indian Oil Corporation Limited took nearly half the total for India, while the privately held Reliance Industries took three cargoes, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited took one each.

Of the 15 cargoes that will go to India, at least nine will hold Nigerian grades, including Qua Iboe, Agbami and Usan.

China’s daily intake dropped to its lowest since May this year at 1.419 million bpd from 1.571 million bpd in July, reflecting a modest slowdown in refinery intake and less favourable shipping economics.

Some 60 per cent of crude that will head to China is Angolan.

The premium of Brent crude futures to benchmark Dubai futures has widened this month to almost $2.00 from less than $1.00 in late July, while the premium to the US crude futures has also crept out towards $6.00 from near $2.50 a month ago.

The relatively strong performance of Brent futures to other regional benchmarks means it has been cheaper for Asian buyers to take in the likes of the US shale or other Middle East grades at the expense of typical West African grades.

However, the drop in the value of the currencies against the US dollar of a number of key commodity importers, such as China and India, over the course of August might prompt a decline in flows in September and October, as buyers feel the pinch of an unfavourable foreign exchange rate.

“Despite the general weakness in emerging-market currencies, oil market players are relaxed about the potential adverse impact on global oil demand, especially now that the dollar is getting slightly weaker again,” a PVM Oil analyst, TamasVarga, said, adding, “This upbeat mood will probably change if the dollar strengthens again and this strength proves to be prolonged.”

India has seen the value of a barrel of oil rise by nearly 56 per cent in the last year and China, a rise of 47 per cent in local terms, compared with the 41 per cent rise in the dollar value of Brent to around $74 a barrel.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

CBN Worries as Nigeria’s Economic Activities Decline

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has expressed deep worries over the ongoing decline in economic activities within the nation.

The disclosure came from the CBN’s Deputy Governor of Corporate Services, Bala Moh’d Bello, who highlighted the grim economic landscape in his personal statement following the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

According to Bello, the country’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plummeted sharply to 39.2 index points in February 2024 from 48.5 index points recorded in the previous month. This substantial drop underscores the challenging economic environment Nigeria currently faces.

The persistent contraction in economic activity, which has endured for eight consecutive months, has been primarily attributed to various factors including exchange rate pressures, soaring inflation, security challenges, and other significant headwinds.

Bello emphasized the urgent need for well-calibrated policy decisions aimed at ensuring price stability to prevent further stifling of economic activities and avoid derailing output performance. Despite sustained increases in the monetary policy rate, inflationary pressures continue to mount, posing a significant challenge.

Inflation rates surged to 31.70 per cent in February 2024 from 29.90 per cent in the previous month, with both food and core inflation witnessing a notable uptick.

Bello attributed this alarming rise in inflation to elevated production costs, lingering security challenges, and ongoing exchange rate pressures.

The situation further escalated in March, with inflation soaring to an alarming 33.22 per cent, prompting urgent calls for coordinated efforts to address the burgeoning crisis.

The adverse effects of high inflation on citizens’ purchasing power, investment decisions, and overall output performance cannot be overstated.

While acknowledging the commendable efforts of the Federal Government in tackling food insecurity through initiatives such as releasing grains from strategic reserves, distributing seeds and fertilizers, and supporting dry season farming, Bello stressed the need for decisive action to curb the soaring inflation rate.

It’s worth noting that the MPC had recently raised the country’s interest rate to 24.75 per cent in March, reflecting the urgency and seriousness with which the CBN is approaching the economic challenges facing Nigeria.

As the nation grapples with a multitude of economic woes, including inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and security concerns, the CBN’s vigilance and proactive measures become increasingly crucial in navigating these turbulent times and steering the economy towards stability and growth.

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Sub-Saharan Africa to Double Nickel, Triple Cobalt, and Tenfold Lithium by 2050, says IMF

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In a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sub-Saharan Africa emerges as a pivotal player in the global market for critical minerals.

The IMF forecasts a significant uptick in the production of essential minerals like nickel, cobalt, and lithium in the region by the year 2050.

According to the report titled ‘Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth,’ Sub-Saharan Africa stands to double its nickel production, triple its cobalt output, and witness a tenfold increase in lithium extraction over the next three decades.

This surge is attributed to the global transition towards clean energy, which is driving the demand for these minerals used in electric vehicles, solar panels, and other renewable energy technologies.

The IMF projects that the revenues generated from the extraction of key minerals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium, could exceed $16 trillion over the next 25 years.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to capture over 10 percent of these revenues, potentially leading to a GDP increase of 12 percent or more by 2050.

The report underscores the transformative potential of this mineral wealth, emphasizing that if managed effectively, it could catalyze economic growth and development across the region.

With Sub-Saharan Africa holding about 30 percent of the world’s proven critical mineral reserves, the IMF highlights the opportunity for the region to become a major player in the global supply chain for these essential resources.

Key countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are already significant contributors to global mineral production. For instance, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounts for over 70 percent of global cobalt output and approximately half of the world’s proven reserves.

Other countries like South Africa, Gabon, Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Mali also possess significant reserves of critical minerals.

However, the report also raises concerns about the need for local processing of these minerals to capture more value and create higher-skilled jobs within the region.

While raw mineral exports contribute to revenue, processing these minerals locally could significantly increase their value and contribute to sustainable development.

The IMF calls for policymakers to focus on developing local processing industries to maximize the economic benefits of the region’s mineral wealth.

By diversifying economies and moving up the value chain, countries can reduce their vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations and enhance their resilience to external shocks.

The report concludes by advocating for regional collaboration and integration to create a more attractive market for investment in mineral processing industries.

By working together across borders, Sub-Saharan African countries can unlock the full potential of their critical mineral wealth and pave the way for sustainable economic growth and development.

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Economy

Lagos, Abuja to Host Public Engagements on Proposed Tax Policy Changes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee has announced a series of public engagements to discuss proposed tax policy changes.

Scheduled to kick off in Lagos on Thursday followed by Abuja on May 6, these sessions will help shape Nigeria’s tax structure.

Led by Chairman Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to gather insights and perspectives from stakeholders across sectors.

The focal point of these engagements is to solicit feedback on revisions to the National Tax Policy and potential amendments to tax laws and administration practices.

The significance of these public dialogues cannot be overstated. As Nigeria endeavors to fortify its economy and enhance revenue collection mechanisms, citizen input is paramount.

The engagement process underscores a commitment to democratic governance and collaborative policymaking, recognizing that tax reforms affect every facet of society.

The proposed changes are rooted in a strategic vision to stimulate economic growth while ensuring fairness and efficiency in tax administration. By harnessing diverse viewpoints, the committee seeks to craft policies that are not only robust but also reflective of the needs and aspirations of Nigerians.

Addressing the press, Chairman Taiwo Oyedele highlighted the importance of these consultations in refining the nation’s tax architecture.

He said the committee’s mandate is informed by insights gleaned from previous engagements and consultations.

The evolving nature of Nigeria’s economic landscape necessitates agility and responsiveness in policymaking, traits that these engagements seek to cultivate.

The public engagements will provide a platform for stakeholders to articulate their perspectives, concerns, and recommendations regarding tax reforms.

Participants from various sectors, including business, academia, civil society, and government agencies, are expected to contribute to robust discussions aimed at charting a path forward for Nigeria’s fiscal policy.

As the first leg of the engagements unfolds in Lagos, followed by Abuja, anticipation is high for constructive dialogue and meaningful outcomes.

The success of these engagements hinges on active participation and genuine collaboration among stakeholders, underscoring the collective responsibility to shape Nigeria’s fiscal future.

In an era marked by economic challenges and global uncertainty, proactive and inclusive policymaking is paramount.

The forthcoming public engagements represent a tangible step towards fostering transparency, accountability, and citizen engagement in Nigeria’s tax reform process.

By harnessing the collective wisdom of its citizens, Nigeria can forge a tax regime that propels sustainable economic development and fosters shared prosperity for all.

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