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Tighter Supply Outlook Shores up Crude Oil Prices to $75

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  • Tighter Supply Outlook Shores up Crude Oil Prices to $75

Crude oil prices rose Monday with the global benchmark, Brent crude settling at $75 per barrel, as traders kept the focus on global supply disruptions and the effects of the United States’ sanctions on Iran.

The price of Brent crude was actually up 76 cents at $75.52 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by $1.51 to settle at $70.21 per barrel.

Despite the hike in crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day to 32.64 million barrels per day in July, the highest in 2018, the price of oil has risen in recent weeks.

Reuters reported that the prices remain buoyed by a tight supply outlook, with global inventories down from record highs in 2017 and US inventories at a three-year low.

The supply of crude oil to the international market has suffered disruptions in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia last week said it was suspending oil shipments through the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandeb strait, one of the world’s most important sea routes for crude oil, after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis attacked two ships in the waterway.

Oil traders said prices pulled back after information supplier, Genscape reported that inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery hub for US crude, rose almost 200,000 barrels, or nearly one per cent, from Tuesday to Friday last week.

But the prices have rebounded from recent lows over the last two weeks, as looming sanctions on Iran have already started to curtail exports from that country.

Supporting prices is the possibility that the United States might re-impose sanctions on Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, which could result in further supply reductions from the Middle East.

OPEC had on November 27, 2015, decided to pump as much as it could to defend market share, an action that sent the price of oil to a low of $27 per barrel in February 2016.

But following the drop in oil price to an all-time low, OPEC and other major producers, including Russia started to withhold output in 2017 to rein in oversupply that had depressed prices since 2014.

OPEC’s main objective for the cuts is to eliminate a global surplus in oil stocks and re-balance the market.

OPEC, together with Russia and a group of other producers, last November extended an output-cutting deal to cover all of 2018.

The initial deal, under which OPEC and non-OPEC producers are cutting supply by about 1.8 million barrels per day, had expired in March 2018.

The production-cutting pact between the OPEC, Russia and other producers has given strong tailwind to oil prices

However, the cartel and its allies agreed last month to boost supply as US President Donald Trump urged producers to offset losses caused by new US sanctions on Iran and to dampen prices, which had hit $80 per barrel earlier this year, the first time since 2014.

On June 22-23, OPEC, Russia and other non-members agreed to return to 100 per cent compliance with oil output cuts that began in January 2017, after months of underproduction in Venezuela and elsewhere pushed adherence above 160 per cent.

Saudi Arabia said the decision would translate into an output rise of about one million bpd.

OPEC’s collective adherence with supply targets has slipped to 111 per cent in July from a revised 116 per cent in June, the survey found, meaning it is still cutting more than agreed.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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