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Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook July 2-6

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U.S dollar - Investors King
  • Forex Weekly Outlook July 2-6

Trade tensions between the US and other nations continued to hurt market sentiment as the US insisted on additional trade tariffs on imported goods from China, Canada, the European Union, and presently pushing allies to stop the importation of Iranian crude oil by November 4th, leading to increased market uncertainty across both emerging and developed markets.

Trade tensions coupled with economic fundamentals have become key factors in projecting possible market direction in recent months, therefore, both will be used to broaden forex outlook ahead of unemployment data this week.

EURUSD

The US dollar gained on strong economic fundamentals and progressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, however, lower than expected economic growth rate and slowing consumer spending despite tax cuts weighed on US dollar outlook against the Euro currency last week.

On Friday, the Euro jumped 0.83 percent against the US dollar following an agreement reached by the European Union leaders on immigration control and better than expected Consumer Price Index ‘estimate’ released for the month of June. The agreement is now expected to put an end to the uncertainty surrounding Angela Merkel coalition party and boost business sentiment in the Euro area.

EURUSDWeekly

The EURUSD closed as a bullish pinbar as shown above but below 1.1740 resistance levels. While the data pointed to a better business sentiment in the region, the growing trade war with the US and the possibility of the European Union buying long-dated bonds from next year to maintain record low interest rates will impact the Euro outlook against the greenback and expected to contain rebound below the 1.1852 key resistance that doubled as double top.

Therefore, a break above 1.1740 resistance level should attract enough sellers to reinforce the bearish move started in February towards the ascending channel, a sustained break of that level should open up 1.1398 support.

Please note that a positive Fed report due on Thursday will further strengthen the US dollar outlook against the Euro while a weaker than expected unemployment number may temporarily weigh on EURUSD outlook.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc gained across the board on Friday after Swiss Finance Minister Ueli Maurer said the Swiss franc-euro rate has normalised and is not a problem for the exports dependent nation. But while the currency surged against the US dollar, it formed an evening star pattern as shown below. Indicating a possible continuation below the 0.9900 support level.

USDCHFDaily

Despite the strong US dollar, the uncertainty surrounding trade war between nations is likely to increase demand for haven currencies like Swiss Franc going forward. Hence, the reason USDCHF is expected to extend downward to 0.9819 support levels on a sustained break of 0.9900 support.

AUDJPY

For a similar reason, the Japanese Yen may get stronger as the rush for haven currencies increases. Also, the Australian dollar is likely to be weighed upon by slowing Chinese economic growth, its largest trading partner, and the ongoing trade war.

Likewise, growing household debt and sluggish wage growth amid rising job creation are hurting Australian retail sales and the economy at large.

AUDJPYWeekly

Therefore, despite the pair closing as a bullish pinbar last week, a close above 83.22 resistance level is needed to validate bullish continuation. Otherwise, the trade war, new ‘steel’ import policy in China and global uncertainty will further push AUDJPY below the ascending channel. The reason I will be treating the pinbar as a temporary rebound and will expect a close below the 81.18 support level to open up 80.44 support.

GBPUSD

The pound remained unattractive below the 1.3357 resistance level, and with the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy ahead of Brexit. I am expecting a retest of 1.3100 support level as long as price remained below the 1.3357 resistance under the ascending channel. Especially with the renewed interest in the US dollar.

GBPUSDWeekly

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 30th, 2024

As of April 30th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,340 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

As of April 30th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,340 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,340
  • Selling Rate: N1,330

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Forex

ABCON President Announces Blueprint for Unified Retail Forex Market

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate - Investors King

The President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, has revealed plans to establish a unified retail end forex market structure.

This strategic initiative seeks to address volatility and streamline operations across the Bureaux De Change (BDC) sub-sector.

Gwadabe outlined the objectives of ABCON’s blueprint and the need to integrate operators from various segments of the market.

Central to the plan is the inauguration of state chapters to facilitate coordination, integration, and administration of a united market structure.

ABCON intends to extend its automation policies and platforms to all BDC operators nationwide, upgrading its Business Process Platform to enhance efficiency and transparency.

The proposed unified retail end forex market will feature a centralized, democratized, and liberalized online real-time trading platform.

This innovation aims to provide market participants with greater accessibility and transparency while fostering regulatory compliance and government oversight.

Speaking on the vision for the unified market, Gwadabe highlighted the importance of collaboration with regulatory agencies, security operatives, and government bodies to ensure a secure and thriving forex market environment.

Gwadabe reiterated the benefits of a realistic and vibrant retail forex market, aligning with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) objectives of achieving true price discovery for the naira and balancing international obligations.

Also, the unified market structure aims to provide market intelligence reports, enhance the image of BDCs, and stimulate employment generation.

Furthermore, ABCON’s initiative aims to combat the proliferation of unlicensed forex platforms by creating a transparent and competitive market environment. By digitizing retail forex transactions and ensuring regulatory compliance, the association aims to capture revenues for the government and curb illicit financial activities.

ABCON, as a self-regulatory body representing all CBN-licensed BDCs, acknowledges the importance of maintaining integrity and adherence to regulatory standards within the sector.

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Forex

Yen Hits 34-Year Low Against Dollar Despite Bank of Japan’s Inaction

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The Japanese yen plummeted to a 34-year low against the US dollar, sending shockwaves through global financial markets.

Despite mounting pressure and speculation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) chose to maintain its key interest rate.

The yen’s relentless slide, extending to 0.7% to 156.66 against the dollar, underscores deep concerns about Japan’s economic stability and the efficacy of its monetary policies.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks at a post-meeting news conference did little to assuage fears as he acknowledged the impact of foreign exchange dynamics on inflation but downplayed the yen’s influence on underlying prices.

Investors, already on edge due to the yen’s dismal performance this year, are now bracing for further volatility amid speculation of imminent intervention by Japanese authorities.

The absence of decisive action from the BOJ has heightened uncertainty, with concerns looming over the potential repercussions of a prolonged yen depreciation.

The implications of the yen’s decline extend far beyond Japan’s borders, reverberating across global markets. The currency’s status as the worst-performing among major currencies in the Group of Ten (G-10) underscores its significance in the international financial landscape.

Policymakers have issued repeated warnings against excessive depreciation, signaling a commitment to intervene if necessary to safeguard economic stability.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government’s readiness to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the face of market volatility.

However, the lack of concrete action from Japanese authorities has left investors grappling with uncertainty, unsure of the yen’s trajectory in the days to come.

Market analysts warn of the potential for further downside risk, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases and the prospect of thin trading volumes due to public holidays in Japan.

The absence of coordinated intervention efforts and a clear policy stance only exacerbates concerns, fueling speculation about the yen’s future trajectory.

The yen’s current predicament evokes memories of past episodes of currency turmoil, prompting comparisons to Japan’s intervention in 2022 when the currency experienced a similar downward spiral.

The prospect of history repeating itself looms large, as market participants weigh the possibility of intervention against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile global economy.

As Japan grapples with the yen’s precipitous decline, the stakes have never been higher for policymakers tasked with restoring stability to the currency markets. With the world watching closely, the fate of the yen hangs in the balance, poised between intervention and inertia in the face of unprecedented challenges.

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