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Investors Weigh Impact of US Rate Hike

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  • Investors Weigh Impact of US Rate Hike

Investors are weighing the possible impact of the increase in the United States’ benchmark interest rate as against expected returns on their investments in Nigeria.

Prior to last week’s rate hike in the US, financial and economic experts had said the return of foreign portfolio investors to Nigeria was being threatened by the rising interest rates in the US.

The US Federal Reserve, on Wednesday, voted to raise the target for its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent, citing solid economic expansion and job gains.

The widely-anticipated decision will lift the target for the central bank’s benchmark rate to a range of 1.75 per cent to two per cent, the highest level since 2008.

A majority of Fed officials also forecast two more rate rises this year, one more than previously predicted, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation.

The rise is part of the US recovery following the global financial crisis. It is the seventh time the bank has raised rates since 2015.

Analysts said the higher rates in the US had contributed to turmoil in some emerging markets, where low rates had prompted investors to pour in money in recent years in search of returns.

The Managing Director, Afrinvest Securities Limited, Mr Ayodeji Ebo, in a telephone interview with our correspondent, noted that the US rate hike was in line with expectations.

He said, “So, we don’t expect any knee-jerk reaction or sudden capital flow reversal. In the last one or two months, we have seen sell-offs across emerging markets; so, we don’t expect any major impact as a result of this hike because it had been anticipated. So, I don’t see it affecting the equities market.

“But as we go into the end of the year, the combination of elections and higher interest rates in the US would result into reduction of exposure of portfolio investors to Nigeria.”

The naira is seen flat at about 361 per dollar this week as investors weigh the impact of monetary tightening in United States against expected returns from holding local treasuries, Reuters quoted traders as saying.

Nigeria saw an exodus of foreign investors after the steep fall in the price of crude oil from mid-2014 triggered a currency crisis and the first recession in 25 years.

But the total value of capital imported into the country rose in the third quarter of last year, for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2015, following the emergence of the economy from recession in the second quarter of last year. The rise was driven by portfolio and other investments.

“Rising US interest rates and the consequent narrowing of the interest rate differentials with Nigeria, where yields on sovereign securities are falling, pose a threat to the resurgence of portfolio inflows into Nigeria,” an Associate Professor and member of the faculty at the Lagos Business School, Dr Doyin Salami, said last month.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Investors Flock to Nigerian Treasury Bills, Subscriptions Soar to N23.75 Trillion

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Nigeria’s Treasury Bills market has witnessed an unprecedented surge in investor interest with subscriptions soaring to N23.75 trillion in the first four months of 2024.

This increase represents a significant 292% Year-on-Year growth from N6.06 trillion recorded in the same period in 2023.

Treasury Bills, short-term government debt instruments issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), have become increasingly attractive to both local and foreign investors.

The double-digit interest rates offered on NTBs have lured investors seeking refuge from the uncertainties of the global economic landscape.

The surge in subscriptions comes amidst Nigeria’s efforts to bridge its budget deficit and manage monetary challenges amidst a scarcity of foreign exchange and double-digit inflation rates.

Investors’ confidence in the CBN’s ability to navigate these challenges has been bolstered by robust subscription rates, indicating a positive outlook for the country’s fiscal stability.

The 2024 Budget of ‘Renewed Hope’, proposed by President Bola Tinubu, outlines a total expenditure of N27.5 trillion, with a deficit of N9.18 trillion.

The high demand for NTBs underscores investors’ confidence in the government’s fiscal policies and its commitment to economic reform.

As interest rates on NTBs have risen in response to inflationary pressures, the CBN has capitalized on this demand by auctioning larger volumes of NTBs.

The move aims to address liquidity in the financial system while attracting foreign investors seeking higher yields.

Analysts view the surge in NTBs subscriptions as a testament to investors’ confidence in the Nigerian government and its reforms.

The massive oversubscription signals significant system liquidity and reflects the attractiveness of NTBs as a safe investment option amidst economic uncertainties.

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A.P. Moller-Maersk Pledges $600m Investment in Nigerian Ports

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A.P. Moller-Maersk, one of the world’s largest shipping and logistics companies, has committed a $600 million investment into Nigerian ports.

The decision was unveiled during a high-profile meeting between Chairman of A.P. Moller-Maersk, Mr. Robert Maersk Uggla, and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu.

The investment, aimed at expanding port infrastructure to accommodate larger container ships, comes at a pivotal moment for Nigeria’s economy.

Historically, the West African coast has been serviced by smaller vessels but with this injection of capital, A.P. Moller-Maersk envisions deploying larger ships to Nigeria, transforming the country into a major logistics hub for the region.

The move not only underscores Nigeria’s strategic importance but also highlights the company’s confidence in the country’s growth potential.

Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Chairman Robert Maersk Uggla expressed optimism about Nigeria’s prospects.

“We have seen a significant opportunity for Nigeria to cater for larger container ships,” Uggla stated. “To achieve this, we need to expand the port infrastructure, especially in Lagos, where we need a bigger hub for logistics services. The growth potential is hard to quantify.”

In response, President Tinubu welcomed the firm’s commitment and emphasized the government’s dedication to fostering an enabling environment for investments.

“We appreciate your business and the contribution you have made and continue to make to our country’s economy over time,” Tinubu remarked. “A bet on Nigeria is a winning bet. It is also a bet that rewards beyond what is obtainable elsewhere.”

The infusion of $600 million into Nigerian ports signifies more than just a financial transaction; it symbolizes a partnership built on mutual trust and shared objectives.

With Nigeria poised to benefit from enhanced port infrastructure and increased trade capacity, the ripple effects of this investment are expected to be felt across various sectors of the economy.

Furthermore, A.P. Moller-Maersk’s decision aligns with Nigeria’s broader vision of becoming a regional economic powerhouse. By attracting foreign investment and fostering strategic collaborations, the country is laying the groundwork for sustainable growth and development.

As Nigeria charts a course towards prosperity, the $600 million commitment from A.P. Moller-Maersk serves as a beacon of hope and a testament to the nation’s potential on the global stage. With determination and collective effort, Nigeria stands poised to capitalize on this opportunity and navigate the waters of progress with confidence.

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Minister Accuses Past NCDMB Leadership of Squandering $500m on Unproductive Projects

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The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has accused the former executives of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) of mismanaging a whopping $500 million on projects deemed unproductive.

Speaking at a dinner hosted by The Petroleum Club in Lagos, Lokpobiri minced no words as he shed light on what he described as egregious financial mismanagement within the organization.

Lokpobiri, during the interactive session, alleged that substantial sums were squandered on ventures that yielded little to no tangible results.

Among the projects cited was the infamous Brass modular refinery in Bayelsa State, for which a staggering $35 million was purportedly disbursed without any discernible progress.

Similarly, Lokpobiri raised concerns about a $20 million investment in a fertiliser factory, questioning its whereabouts and efficacy.

The minister’s accusations didn’t end there. He underscored what he termed the imprudent disbursement of funds, highlighting instances where significant amounts were released in lump sums against professional advice.

Lokpobiri stressed the need for a comprehensive review of these investments, lamenting the magnitude of the financial losses incurred.

Furthermore, Lokpobiri pointed fingers at the mismanagement of loans totaling approximately $350 million, which were intended to support investors.

According to him, a staggering 90% of these loans ended up as non-performing, exacerbating the financial hemorrhage experienced by the NCDMB.

Addressing the crisis between himself and the incumbent NCDMB boss, Felix Ogbe, Lokpobiri clarified that his intervention was grounded in the oversight responsibilities vested in him as the chairman of the council overseeing the NCDMB.

He stated the importance of due diligence in governance and reiterated his commitment to ensuring transparency and accountability within the organization.

In response to Lokpobiri’s accusations, the immediate past Executive Secretary of the NCDMB, Simbi Wabote, vehemently refuted the allegations, asserting that they lacked substantiation.

Wabote defended the integrity of the Nigerian Content Intervention Fund, hailing it as a pivotal initiative with an impressive 96% payback rate.

Wabote also defended the NCDMB’s investment decisions, citing instances of successful ventures such as the equity investment in Waltersmith’s modular refinery, which has shown promising returns.

He attributed challenges faced by certain projects to external factors and legal disputes, maintaining the organization’s commitment to prudent financial management.

As the allegations continue to reverberate across the industry, stakeholders await the outcome of the government’s review, which could potentially reshape the trajectory of the NCDMB and its approach to investment and governance.

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