Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook March 5-9

Published

6 years ago

March 4, 2018

Forex Weekly Outlook March 5-9

The uncertainty in the U.S. continued to weigh on U.S. economic outlook after president Trump announced that the import tariffs on steel and aluminum will be increased to 25 percent and 10 percent respectively. This led to weak U.S dollar as investors abandoned the currency despite strong economic fundamentals.

In the U.K., manufacturing activities grew at an 8-month low in February while construction activities expanded slightly in the month. Signaling a mixed economic data, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Brexit plan following Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech on Friday.

Therefore, a strong services PMI number is needed to better assess U.K. economic position ahead of European Union response to Theresa May’s plan.

In Canada, the economy expanded at a slower pace in the second half of 2017, growing at an annualized rate of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Suggesting that rising household debt has started weighing on consumer spending and likely to worsen economic outlook ahead of NAFTA trade deal with the U.S. Meaning, not just the correlation between the U.S. and Canada’s economy will weigh on Canadian dollar despite strong global commodity outlook but weak trade relation, low inflation, rising debt and overpriced housing market amid new tariffs on imports will hurt the loonie attractiveness, as Canada exports 90 percent of its steel to the U.S., representing 16 percent of the total U.S. steel imports, and also accounts for about 41 percent of America’s aluminum imports.

In Japan, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda for the first time announced the apex bank may start looking into balance sheet normalization as early as April 2019. This, bolstered Yen’s outlook across the board as investors jumped on it to avert the U.S and Europe’s uncertainties.

This week, USDJPY, CADJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY, and GBPJPY top my list.

CADJPY

The uncertainty surrounding the Canadian economic outlook ahead of NAFTA trade agreement and possible tariffs increment is likely to hurt the Canadian currency against the more attractive Japanese Yen in the first half of 2018, especially now that investors are likely to be looking for a weaker currency to trade the Yen against.

Therefore, after dropping more than 230 pips against the Yen last week to bring its total lost since December peak reached at 91.56 price level, to 953 pips. I will be looking to sell CADJPY pair below the ascending channel as shown above, and expect a sustained break below the 81.48 support level to further validate bearish continuation and open up 78.90 support level. However, a break of 80.24 support level, below the 2017’s low, is imperative to our target.

USDJPY

As previously analyzed, the Yen remained the most attractive currency at the moment.

This week, I will expect a sustained break of our last week target at 105.57 support level and break below the descending channel to open up 104.16 as shown above. Again, given strong Japan’s fundamentals and Yen’s haven status, USDJPY is likely to break 100.30 support level by the second or third quarter of this year.

NZDJPY

New Zealand economy is projected to slow down on China’s credit control and steel restriction policies instituted by the government to curb rising debt and extreme pollution. Again, the low wage growth, weak inflation, and rising house debt are hurting consumer spending despite the strong commodity outlook.

Similarly, while the New Zealand dollar rebounded slightly against the Yen last week, it remained below 77.07 key support level. Therefore, as previously stated I expect the Yen to sustain its last week gains against the Kiwi dollar this week, and a break of 76.02 support level that doubled as our second target to open up 74.84 (target 3).

AUDJPY

The Australian dollar is a commodity-dependent currency, however, while global commodity market is currently better than what was recorded for the larger part of 2017, the possibility of slower Chinese economy due to the new policy is likely to weigh on Aussie dollar outlook in 2018.

Last week, after data showed the Chinese manufacturing PMI plunged to a 19-month low in February, AUDJPY dropped 210 pips to break 82.03 support. Another indication of China’s influence on the Aussie dollar.

This week, I am bearish on AUDJPY and expect a sustained break of 82.03 to increase sellers’ interest as it would have break 2017 low of 81.47. Again, while 80.60 support is key to bearish continuation, a break below that price level should open up 79.14 price level.

GBPJPY

Despite the substantial rebound in GBPJPY pair following Theresa May’s speech, I remained bearish on this pair as I doubt the European Union will accept the May’s proposed solution to Irish border going by EU proposal and comments from key policy-makers.

Therefore, as previously stated I remained bearish on GBPJPY and expect a further downward trend towards our second target.

NZDUSD

After the first target was met at 0.7226 last week. I will be stepping aside from NZDUSD this week to better assess price action because of the growing uncertainties in the US.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar Rate Reaches ₦1,350 Today, May 3rd, 2024

US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 at the black market stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380

Published

3 hours ago

May 3, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,350 and sold it at ₦1,340 on Thursday, May 2nd, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,380
Selling Rate: ₦1,370

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, May 2nd, 2024

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

13 hours ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,350
Selling Rate: N1,340

Forex

Yen’s Plunge Persists Despite Japan’s Late New York Trading Intervention

Published

16 hours ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Japan’s attempts to shore up the yen faced yet another setback as the currency continued its downward spiral despite a late intervention in New York trading.

Despite efforts by Japanese authorities to stem the yen’s decline, traders remained unfazed, indicating a growing skepticism towards the efficacy of such measures.

The yen, which had initially weakened as much as 1.1% against the dollar during Asia trading, stubbornly clung to its downward trajectory, inching closer to levels seen before the suspected intervention.

Speculations ran rife among traders regarding Japan’s involvement in the currency market after witnessing abrupt fluctuations in the yen’s value during the final stretch of the US trading session.

This recent development underscores a deepening challenge for Japanese policymakers grappling with the yen’s persistent depreciation.

Despite their best efforts, the market sentiment appears to be increasingly immune to intervention tactics, casting doubts on the effectiveness of such measures in the long run.

Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., weighed in on the situation, remarking, “Japan’s finance ministry likely intervened but couldn’t break 152, where investors used to be cautious.”

He further noted, “Now that authorities are seen as having stepped in for a second time but gave the impression that they cannot stop the yen cheapening trend alone, market participants will likely feel more comfortable to short yen.”

The prevailing sentiment among traders suggests a growing consensus that Japan’s interventions may be insufficient to halt the yen’s depreciation trend.

Despite the authorities’ concerted efforts, the currency’s plunge persists, signaling a broader challenge for policymakers in navigating the complexities of the global currency market.

As the yen’s decline continues unabated, market participants remain on high alert, bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.

The inability of intervention measures to reverse the currency’s downward trajectory raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional policy tools in an increasingly interconnected and unpredictable financial landscape.

In the face of mounting challenges, Japanese authorities may find themselves compelled to explore alternative strategies to address the yen’s persistent weakness.

Whether through unconventional policy measures or coordinated efforts with global counterparts, finding a sustainable solution to stabilize the yen remains a pressing priority for policymakers amid evolving market dynamics.