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CBN to Maintain Forward Guidance as Policy Tool

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King
  • CBN to Maintain Forward Guidance as Policy Tool

Following the Senate’s refusal to consider President Muhammadu Buhari’s nominees to fill the vacancies in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has decided to hold on to forward guidance to communicate its monetary policy intentions pending the resolution of the dispute between the legislature and the executive arms of government.

The suspension of confirmation of the nominees by the Senate has made it impossible for the MPC to form a quorum and could, therefore, not meet to take up its role of monetary policy guidance.

A senior central bank official disclosed this yesterday.

Forward guidance is a verbal assurance from a country’s central bank to the public about its intended monetary policy. It attempts to influence the financial decisions of households, businesses and investors by letting them know what to expect from interest rates (to the extent that the central bank can influence those rates). The central bank’s clear messages to the public are one tool for preventing surprises that might disrupt the markets and cause significant fluctuations in asset prices.

The first MPC meeting for 2018, which would have held last month did not hold. But in the absence of the meeting, the CBN had announced its decision to continue to retain the key monetary policy variables as decided by the MPC at its last meeting in November 2017.

The CBN source explained: “There would be forward guidance. The management of the central bank will continue to issue forward guidance.

“If you remember there was a time in this country when MPC wasn’t statutory, the economy was running, and the central bank was issuing forward guidance.

“So, there is no problem, the central bank will continue to issue forward guidance. I don’t think the emergency meeting will hold.”

Media reported last November that eight positions in the 12-member committee were vacant, making it impossible for the committee to form a quorum.

Media had also reported about a fortnight ago that the Senate was not budging on its resolve not to consider the MPC nominees.

The lawmakers had maintained that they would not confirm any nominee by the executive until the impasse regarding the nomination and non-confirmation of the acting chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mr. Ibrahim Magu, was resolved.

The lawmakers also said the Senate had resolved to seek a legal interpretation of a comment made by Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo that the position of the EFCC chairman did not require the confirmation of the Senate, as it was not specified in the constitution.

As a result of Osinbajo’s remark, the Senate had resolved to suspend the confirmation process for all nominees of the president not specifically mentioned in the 1999 Constitution, but are provided for in the establishment Acts of several agencies of the federal government such as the CBN, FIRS, NCC, and others.

Commenting on the decision by the CBN to issue forward guidance, the Director General of the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM), Prof. Akpan Ekpo, described it as a temporary arrangement, saying the central bank was in a dilemma.

Ekpo, who is a former MPC member added: “This so-called forward guidance is very temporary. It is an attempt to fill a yearning gap. But to me, it is not the best thing to do. But currently, the central bank cannot do anything, and you can’t blame the CBN for trying to find a way out.

“I wish this matter can be resolved. The stalemate is very sad. They are playing politics with the economy and it is very unfair. When you create uncertainty in the system, the foreign investors we are looking for may be discouraged. In most countries, the MPC is the engine room. If they cannot meet because of lack of quorum, it is very unfortunate.

“I thought the National Assembly should realise that they are not attacking President Muhammadu Buhari as a person, what they are doing is affecting the national economy.”

The CBN Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, had last month announced that the benchmark monetary policy rate (MPR) was retained at 14 per cent, the cash reserve requirement at 22.5 per cent, liquidity ratio at 30 per cent, while the asymmetric corridor retained at +200 and -500 basis point around the MPR, as decided at the November meeting of the MPC.

He stressed that the central bank would remain proactive and vigilant in ensuring that macroeconomic stability was maintained.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Federal Government Spends $1.12 Billion on Foreign Debt Servicing in Q1 2024

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The Federal Government has disclosed that it pays $1.12 billion to service foreign debts in the first quarter of 2024 alone.

This amount shows the escalating burden of external debt on the nation’s fiscal health.

Data gleaned from the international payment segment of the Central Bank of Nigeria website reveals a steady upward trajectory in debt service payments, both over the past few years and within the first quarter of 2024.

When this is compared to the same period in 2023, debt servicing rose by 39.7 percent in Q1, 2024.

The breakdown of the debt service payments paints a picture of fluctuating yet consistently high expenditure.

January 2024 commenced with an imposing debt servicing obligation of $560.52 million, a stark contrast to the $112.35 million recorded in January 2023.

While February 2024 witnessed a moderation in debt servicing payments to $283.22 million and March 2024 saw a further decrease to $276.17 million.

Alarmingly, approximately 70 percent of Nigeria’s dollar payments were allocated to service external debts during the first quarter of 2024.

Out of the total outflows amounting to $1.61 billion, a substantial $1.12 billion was directed towards debt servicing, significantly surpassing the corresponding figure of 49 percent in Q1 2023.

The depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which experienced a recent one-month dip streak has been attributed primarily to debt repayments and other financial obligations rather than efforts to defend the naira, according to CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso.

The World Bank has expressed profound concern over the escalating debt service burdens facing developing countries globally, emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated action to avert a widespread financial crisis.

With record-level debt and soaring interest rates, many developing nations, including Nigeria, face an increasingly precarious economic path, fraught with challenges regarding resource allocation and financial stability.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) has previously disclosed that Nigeria incurred a debt service of $3.5 billion for its external loans in 2023, marking a 55 percent increase from the previous year.

This worrisome trend underscores the pressing need for robust fiscal management and prudent debt repayment strategies to safeguard Nigeria’s financial stability and foster sustainable economic growth.

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Emefiele Trial: Witness Details Alleged Extortion by CBN Director Over $400,000

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In the ongoing trial of Godwin Emefiele, former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), a significant revelation emerged as Victor Onyejiuwa, managing director of The Source Computers Limited, took the stand as the fourth witness.

His testimony shed light on alleged extortion involving a substantial sum of $400,000.

Onyejiuwa recounted his company’s involvement with the CBN from 2014 to 2019, providing technology support and securing multiple contracts, including one for enterprise storage and servers in 2017.

However, post-execution of the contract, he faced pressure from John Ikechukwu Ayoh, a former CBN director, regarding the release of funds.

According to Onyejiuwa’s testimony, Ayoh approached him, indicating that CBN management required a portion of the contract’s funds.

He alleged that Ayoh threatened to withhold payment approval if his demands were not met. Feeling coerced, Onyejiuwa acceded to Ayoh’s request after several discussions.

To ensure the contract’s payment, Onyejiuwa revealed that he organized the sum of $400,000 along with an additional $200,000, yielding a total of $600,000.

This payment, made within two to three weeks, facilitated the release of funds for the contract.

During his testimony, Onyejiuwa disclosed contract amounts, including a significant $1.2 billion contract, along with others valued at $2.1 million, N340,000, and N17 million.

These revelations provide insight into the alleged irregularities surrounding contract payments at the CBN.

Following Onyejiuwa’s testimony, Emefiele’s legal counsel requested an adjournment for cross-examination at the next hearing, which was granted by Justice Rahman Oshodi. The trial is set to resume on May 17.

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IMF Gives Nod as Congo Inches Closer to Historic Loan Program Completion

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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) received a positive review from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday in a crucial step toward completing its first-ever IMF loan program.

Following the completion of the sixth and final review in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, IMF staff are set to recommend to the executive board the approval of the last disbursement of Congo’s three-year $1.5 billion extended credit facility.

This development positions Congo on the brink of achieving a milestone in its financial history.

Despite facing fiscal pressures exacerbated by ongoing conflict in the eastern regions and the recent elections in December 2023, the IMF lauded Congo’s overall performance as “generally positive”.

The country’s economy heavily relies on mineral exports, particularly copper and cobalt, essential components in electric vehicle batteries.

According to the IMF, Congo’s economy exhibited robust growth, expanding by 8.3% last year, fueled largely by its ascent to become the world’s second-largest copper producer.

However, persistent insecurity in eastern Congo, attributed to the activities of over 100 armed groups vying for control over resources and political representation, has hindered the nation’s economic progress.

The positive assessment by the IMF underscores Congo’s achievements in enhancing its economic fundamentals, including an increase in reserves, which reached $5.5 billion by the end of 2023, equivalent to approximately two months of imports.

Despite these gains, challenges remain, with high inflation rates hovering around 24% at the close of last year.

The IMF emphasized the necessity of enacting a new budget law following the renegotiation of a minerals-for-infrastructure contract with China. Under the revised terms, Congo is slated to receive $324 million annually in development financing backed by revenue from a copper and cobalt joint venture.

Looking ahead, the IMF’s executive board is anticipated to deliberate on the staff recommendation in July. If approved, the disbursement of approximately $200 million will fortify Congo’s international reserves, providing a crucial buffer against economic volatility.

Also, Congo’s government intends to seek a new Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from the IMF, signaling its commitment to ongoing economic reforms and sustainable growth.

The IMF’s endorsement represents a significant validation of Congo’s economic trajectory and underscores the nation’s efforts to navigate complex challenges while advancing towards financial stability and prosperity.

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