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Analysts Predict Monetary Policy Easing

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Economy
  • Analysts Predict Monetary Policy Easing

Analysts at WSTC Financial Services Limited in its 2018 forecast has predicted a 200 basis point (bps) reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate(MPR). The firm stated this in its 2018 projection titled: “Nigeria in 2018, A tale of two halves”.

The Lead Analyst, WSTC, Mr. Olutola Oni noted that “monetary easing is now a matter of when, not if.”

The report added: “We expect the CBN to adopt a dovish stance in 2018, although this should bear some implications on inflation and capital flows.

“The CBN will witness renewed pressure to complement the economic growth agenda of fiscal policies ahead of February 2019.

“The ongoing sovereign debt portfolio restructuring will enable the CBN mop up excess liquidity at lower cost .We expect a 200bps reduction in MPR in 2018, with the first rate cut in March or May.

“However, considerations about ensuring positive real-returns and stability in the FX market should ultimately place a floor on monetary easing and yield compression.”

The firm also anticipated stability in the foreign exchange market, stating that there were few incentives for the harmonisation of rates across various forex market segments in 2018.

It noted that increased exchange rate exposure, resulting from the FGN’s debt substitution strategy, would be an additional reason to avoid convergence of rates in the year.

“Inflows from oil earnings and proceeds of external borrowings will further prop-up external reserves in first half 2018. We expect a slowdown of inflows in the second half of 2018 as election-related uncertainty kicks in.

“However, both the MPC and the Presidency will favour forex stability ahead of the February 2019 general elections, hence, we reckon that FX rates will be managed across the different market segments,” it added.

Commenting on its outlook for the stock market, the report stated: “The equities market is expected to be driven by liquidity in the forex market, improving economic activities, impressive corporate performance and softer yields on fixed income securities in first half 2018. FMCG, Industrial Goods, Banking, Construction, and Upstream Oil & Gas are poised to benefit most.”

Continuing, it stated that regulation constitutes a key risk to the downstream oil and gas industry.

“We expect a modest contraction in net interest margin in the banking industry in the first half of 2018. Also, high oil prices, easier access to forex and improving economic activities should strengthen asset quality and enhance modest credit growth. Healthier consumer spending will be supported by declining inflation & election- induced public spending.

“The performance of the Consumer Goods & the Industrial Goods sectors will be driven by stable product prices, healthier sales volume, lower debt burden, lower borrowing cost & improved forex liquidity.

“Stability in forex and declining inflation are expected to support lower input and operating costs. Thus, we expect healthier margins from companies in these sectors.

“However, we reckon that a resurgence of tighter liquidity in the forex market and heightened election-related uncertainties in the year may dampen overall market performance in H2 2018.”

Furthermore on oil outputs, it added: “Crude oil started off in 2018 with a multi-year high of $67 per barrel, boosted by supply disruptions, record level of compliance among OPEC members (and some other major non-OPEC producers) to the ongoing production cut agreement and strong global demand.”

“With the ongoing alignment between OPEC and non-OPEC members, the odds are stacked in support of favourable oil prices in 2018. Heightened geo-political risks in the Middle East may further unsettle market disequilibrium for longer in 2018.”

“On the domestic scene, we believe that the FGN will be more inclined to managing the demands of militants in the creeks. Hence, we expect a more stable production and evacuation of crude oil from the Niger Delta,” it added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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