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Forex Weekly Outlook November 6-10

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  • Forex Weekly Outlook November 6-10

The US Federal Reserve left the interest rates unchanged last week, citing weak wage growth and low inflation rate. However, the US dollar sustained its earlier gains even though the labor market added fewer jobs than expected in October. The services sector expanded 60.1 and personal spending climbed 1.0 percent in October, up from 0.1 percent in September.

In the UK, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in more than 10 years. The apex bank increased benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent, saying escalating inflation is eroding consumer buying power and business profits.

Here are my pick for this week;

AUDJPY

The Australian dollar dipped last week on weaker than expected retail sales number in September. Sales went flat in the month, following a 0.5 percent decline in August. This was after consumer prices climbed just 0.6 percent in the third quarter, also less than projected. Weak wage growth and rising household debt continued to hurt household income and subsequently weighed on consumer spending.

AUDJPYWeekly

As explained during the week, stable Japanese Yen is more attractive because of its haven status and strong economic fundamental. Technically, AUDJPY closed below the 88.17 price level and 20-day moving average last week. Indicating that weak economic fundamentals and low business confidence are still impacting Aussie dollar attractiveness.

Therefore, this week I remain bearish on AUDJPY with 86.34 support as the target.

GBPUSD

After the Bank of England raised rates last week, the pound fell across board because of Governor Mark Carney’s comment that the economy is fragile due to weak new business investment and sluggish wage growth. The market interpreted the comment as no rate hike in 2018, forcing traders to pare their 2018 rates bet.

GBPUSDWeekly

Since I first mentioned this pair two weeks ago, it has dropped about 218 pips. However, while it closed below the ascending trendline and as a bearish pin bar to hit our target 1 at 1.3046 support level. We need a close below that level to validate bearish continuation. This is because U.K. economy is resilience with Manufacturing, Construction and Services sectors expanding more than expected last month. Even though inflation rate is high and wage growth remains weak, consumers continued to support the economy.

This week, I will look to sell GBPUSD below 1.3046 support level for 1.2868 and expect a sustained break of that level to open up target 2.

GBPCAD

Similarly, the Pound failed to sustain its gain against the Canadian dollar last week after rallying above the descending trendline as shown below.

GBPCADWeekly

But because of the surge in commodity prices, the Canadian dollar gained across the board last week. This includes the Pound.

Again, the GBPCAD closed below the descending trendline last week and as a bearish pin bar to validate downside continuation. Therefore, this week I am bearish on GBPCAD as long as price remains below the descending trendline with 1.6497 as the target.

AUDUSD

AUDUSDDaily

 I remain bearish on AUDUSD as explained last week.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Forex

ABCON President Announces Blueprint for Unified Retail Forex Market

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The President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, has revealed plans to establish a unified retail end forex market structure.

This strategic initiative seeks to address volatility and streamline operations across the Bureaux De Change (BDC) sub-sector.

Gwadabe outlined the objectives of ABCON’s blueprint and the need to integrate operators from various segments of the market.

Central to the plan is the inauguration of state chapters to facilitate coordination, integration, and administration of a united market structure.

ABCON intends to extend its automation policies and platforms to all BDC operators nationwide, upgrading its Business Process Platform to enhance efficiency and transparency.

The proposed unified retail end forex market will feature a centralized, democratized, and liberalized online real-time trading platform.

This innovation aims to provide market participants with greater accessibility and transparency while fostering regulatory compliance and government oversight.

Speaking on the vision for the unified market, Gwadabe highlighted the importance of collaboration with regulatory agencies, security operatives, and government bodies to ensure a secure and thriving forex market environment.

Gwadabe reiterated the benefits of a realistic and vibrant retail forex market, aligning with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) objectives of achieving true price discovery for the naira and balancing international obligations.

Also, the unified market structure aims to provide market intelligence reports, enhance the image of BDCs, and stimulate employment generation.

Furthermore, ABCON’s initiative aims to combat the proliferation of unlicensed forex platforms by creating a transparent and competitive market environment. By digitizing retail forex transactions and ensuring regulatory compliance, the association aims to capture revenues for the government and curb illicit financial activities.

ABCON, as a self-regulatory body representing all CBN-licensed BDCs, acknowledges the importance of maintaining integrity and adherence to regulatory standards within the sector.

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Forex

Yen Hits 34-Year Low Against Dollar Despite Bank of Japan’s Inaction

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The Japanese yen plummeted to a 34-year low against the US dollar, sending shockwaves through global financial markets.

Despite mounting pressure and speculation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) chose to maintain its key interest rate.

The yen’s relentless slide, extending to 0.7% to 156.66 against the dollar, underscores deep concerns about Japan’s economic stability and the efficacy of its monetary policies.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks at a post-meeting news conference did little to assuage fears as he acknowledged the impact of foreign exchange dynamics on inflation but downplayed the yen’s influence on underlying prices.

Investors, already on edge due to the yen’s dismal performance this year, are now bracing for further volatility amid speculation of imminent intervention by Japanese authorities.

The absence of decisive action from the BOJ has heightened uncertainty, with concerns looming over the potential repercussions of a prolonged yen depreciation.

The implications of the yen’s decline extend far beyond Japan’s borders, reverberating across global markets. The currency’s status as the worst-performing among major currencies in the Group of Ten (G-10) underscores its significance in the international financial landscape.

Policymakers have issued repeated warnings against excessive depreciation, signaling a commitment to intervene if necessary to safeguard economic stability.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government’s readiness to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the face of market volatility.

However, the lack of concrete action from Japanese authorities has left investors grappling with uncertainty, unsure of the yen’s trajectory in the days to come.

Market analysts warn of the potential for further downside risk, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases and the prospect of thin trading volumes due to public holidays in Japan.

The absence of coordinated intervention efforts and a clear policy stance only exacerbates concerns, fueling speculation about the yen’s future trajectory.

The yen’s current predicament evokes memories of past episodes of currency turmoil, prompting comparisons to Japan’s intervention in 2022 when the currency experienced a similar downward spiral.

The prospect of history repeating itself looms large, as market participants weigh the possibility of intervention against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile global economy.

As Japan grapples with the yen’s precipitous decline, the stakes have never been higher for policymakers tasked with restoring stability to the currency markets. With the world watching closely, the fate of the yen hangs in the balance, poised between intervention and inertia in the face of unprecedented challenges.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,300
  • Selling Rate: N1,290

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