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Dollar Heads For Steepest Three-Week Slide

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External Reserves

The dollar headed for its steepest three-week slide in more than four years as an increasingly cautious Federal Reserve spurred analysts and investors to reassess forecasts for the greenback.

A Bloomberg index tracking the U.S. currency against 10 major peers climbed from an eight-month low reached Friday, two days after Fed officials unexpectedly cut projections for interest-rate increases to two this year from the four they estimated in December. Macquarie Bank Ltd. and Morgan Stanley, two of the world’s top 10 currency forecasters, are highlighting the risk of more dollar weakness.

“The fact that they didn’t raise rates and wound back expectations for future increases in 2016 has obviously hurt the U.S. dollar,” said Derek Mumford, a director at Rochford Capital Pty in Sydney. “That can continue in the very near term.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 percent to 1,185.52 as of 6:28 a.m. in New York, having fallen earlier to 1,180.83, the lowest since June 30. It has dropped 3.7 percent since Feb. 26, poised for the biggest three-week slump since October 2011. The greenback has depreciated at least 0.4 percent against all of its Group-of-10 peers since March 11.

Fed’s Outlook

The Fed meeting prompted investors to question whether the dollar’s rally has run out of steam. Bloomberg’s gauge had climbed 37 percent between its 2011 low and the closing peak reached on Jan. 22 of this year, as the promise of superior economic growth and rising interest rates contrasted with sluggish economic activities elsewhere.

“In terms of the relative difference in interest rates, the rally is over,” John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown” with Manus Cranny and Anna Edwards. “The Fed has said we’re not going to be pushing this game like we were expected too.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its year-end forecast for dollar-yen to 103 from 110 the same day. The median estimate is 120 among more than 60 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The dollar was little changed at 111.38 yen Friday, on track for a 2.2 percent slide this week. It reached 110.67 on Thursday, the lowest since October 2014. The greenback gained 0.4 percent Friday to $1.1268 per euro, paring its weekly decline to 1 percent.

‘More Dovish’

“The Fed has become much more dovish — the market realizing maybe the Fed being a little bit more behind the curve,” Dominic Schnider, the head of commodities and Asia-Pacific foreign exchange at UBS Group AG’s wealth-management unit in Hong Kong, said Friday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That’s simply not good for the dollar, and so we have this generic dollar weakness right now which will not disappear in the very short term.”

While Morgan Stanley and Macquarie agree on the prospects for near-term weakness, they remain dollar bulls.

The greenback will decline over a one-to-three month horizon, after which it will begin climbing again on a resumption of Fed tightening amid looser policy elsewhere, Macquarie strategists Nizam Idris, Gareth Berry and Teresa Lam wrote in a report Thursday.

“The falling USD has the characteristics of a pain trade that seems to have further to run,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Hans Redeker, the global head of currency strategy, wrote in a note the same day . However, “for the USD to experience a long-term trend change requires more than a dovish Fed.”

Bloomberg

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Banking Sector

Fidelity Bank Records a 120.1% Growth in PBT to N39.5bn in Q1 2024

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Fidelity Bank MD - Mrs Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe

In line with its upward growth trajectory, leading financial institution, Fidelity Bank Plc, has posted an impressive 120.1% growth in Profit Before Tax from N17.9bn at the end of Q1 2023 to N39.5bn for Q1 2024.

This was made known in the Bank’s unaudited financial statements released on the issuer portal of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) on Tuesday, 30 April 2024.

According to the statement, Gross Earnings increased by 89.9% yoy to N192.1bn from N101.1bn in Q1 2023. The increase was led by a combination of interest income (90.7% yoy) and non-interest income (84.0% yoy).

Growth in interest income was primarily spurred by a higher yield environment and strong earning assets base, while the increase in non-interest income was led by double-digit growth in account maintenance charges, FX-related income, trade, banking services, and remittances, supported by increased customer transactions.

Commenting on the results, Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, MD/CEO, Fidelity Bank Plc stated, “We are pleased to report another quarter of strong financial performance driven by our strategic focus on customer-centricity, digital innovation and operational excellence. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, we remained resilient and agile, delivering double-digit growth on key income lines while advancing our business sustainability agenda.”

In the period under review, the bank grew Net interest income grew by 89.5% yoy to N99.6bn from N52.6bn in Q1 2023, driven by interest and similar income as the yield on financial instruments improved to 14.7% from 10.1% in Q1 2023 (2023FY: 11.6%).

In line with the steady rise in interest rates through the year, average funding cost increased by 80bps ytd to 5.2%. However, NIM came in at 8.8% compared to 8.1% in 2023FY, as increased yield on earning assets surpassed funding cost to 15.1% from 13.3% in Q1 2023 (2023FY: 13.5%).

Similarly, Total Deposits increased by 17.2% ytd to N4.7tn from N4.0tn in 2023FY, driven by double-digit growth across all deposit types (demand, savings and term). Net Loans and Advances increased by 21.2% to N3.7tn from N3.1tn in 2023FY.

“Beginning the year on this inspiring note reaffirms our strategy of helping individuals to grow, inspiring businesses to thrive and empowering economies to prosper. We are committed to our guidance as we build a more resilient business franchise with a well-diversified earnings base in 2024,” explained Onyeali-Ikpe.

Ranked as one of the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank is a full-fledged customer commercial bank with over 8.5 million customers serviced across its 251 business offices in Nigeria and the United Kingdom as well as on digital banking channels.

The bank has won multiple local and international awards including the Export Finance Bank of the Year at the 2023 BusinessDay Banks and Other Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards, the Best Payment Solution Provider Nigeria 2023 and Best SME Bank Nigeria 2022 by the Global Banking and Finance Awards; Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2023; and Best Domestic Private Bank in Nigeria by the Euromoney Global Private Banking Awards 2023.

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Banking Sector

FCMB Group’s Digital Transformation Drives 62.4% Increase in Revenue

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FCMB - Investors King

FCMB Group Plc, one of Nigeria’s leading financial institutions, has reported a surge in its digital revenue for the 2023 financial year.

According to the 2023 audited financial results filed with the Nigerian Exchange Limited, FCMB Group’s digital revenue increased by 62.4% in digital revenue to N60.3 billion from N37.1 billion in the previous year.

With a strategic focus on digitalization, the group has successfully expanded its digital offerings, resulting in a significant uptick in revenue derived from digital channels.

In its 2023 financial report, FCMB Group highlighted the strides made in digital retail lending with over 1.6 million loans totaling N100.9 billion accessed, underwritten, and disbursed through digital channels.

Similarly, digital SME lending witnessed significant traction, with over 20,500 loans totaling N177.9 billion disbursed via digital platforms.

The group’s digital wealth propositions also experienced robust growth, with assets under management reaching N15.1 billion, reflecting a substantial increase from N8.5 billion in 2022.

The surge in digital revenue was attributed to the successful execution of FCMB Group’s digital strategy, which prioritizes innovation, customer-centricity, and operational excellence.

By embracing digital payments, wealth management, and lending solutions, FCMB Group has empowered a greater number of customers while driving revenue growth and operational efficiency.

Commenting on the financial performance, FCMB Group highlighted the reduction of its cost-to-income ratio to 66.3%, excluding revaluation gain (48.9% inclusive of revaluation income).

This achievement underscores the effectiveness of the group’s digital initiatives in optimizing costs and enhancing operational efficiency.

The robust financial performance was further underscored by FCMB Group’s profit before tax, which surged to N104.4 billion in 2023, indicating a remarkable 186% year-on-year growth.

Various divisions of the group, including banking, consumer finance, investment management, and investment banking, recorded robust earnings growth, reflecting the overall strength and resilience of the group.

Furthermore, FCMB Group’s gross revenue rose by 82.5% to N516.4 billion from N283 billion, driven by a 61.7% growth in interest income and a 154.4% growth in non-interest income.

Net interest income grew by 44.8%, propelled by an increase in the yield on earning assets.

In addition to its financial achievements, FCMB Group underscored its commitment to environmental sustainability by transitioning 160 branches to solar power, with 78% of its business locations now powered by renewable energy.

The group also secured funding of up to N13 billion from local development finance institutions to support customers in accessing solar energy solutions.

Looking ahead, FCMB Group reiterated its commitment to leveraging its unique group structure to build a technology-driven ecosystem that fosters inclusive and sustainable growth.

With a focus on continued innovation and digitization, FCMB Group is poised to sustain its growth trajectory and deliver value to its customers, shareholders, and communities across Nigeria.

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Banking Sector

Ecobank’s Profit After Tax Grows to $407m in 2023

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Ecobank - Investors King

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) has reported a $407 million profit after tax for the 2023 financial year.

This represents an 11% increase from the $367 million reported for the year 2022 and reflects the pan-African banking group’s continued growth trajectory amidst challenging economic conditions.

The financial results, filed with the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Tuesday, showcased Ecobank’s robust performance despite the headwinds posed by higher inflation, interest rates, and currency depreciation across Africa.

The group’s profit before tax also rose by 8% or 34% when adjusted for foreign currency translation effects to $581 million.

According to Ecobank, the growth in profit was primarily driven by revenue outpacing expense growth, resulting in positive operating leverage.

The group’s pre-provision, pre-tax operating profit hit $951 million in the year under review, representing a 17% increase from the previous year.

Commenting on the financial results, Jeremy Awori, CEO of Ecobank Group, acknowledged the challenges faced by households, businesses, and governments across Africa in 2023.

Despite the economic uncertainties, Awori declared Ecobank’s unwavering commitment to its customers and stakeholders.

Awori stated, “Ecobank generated a return on tangible shareholders’ equity of 24.9% despite the challenging operating environment in 2023.”

Net revenue exceeded $2.0 billion for the first time since 2015, reaching $2.1 billion, underscoring the efficacy of Ecobank’s 5-year growth, Transformation, and Returns strategy.

The CEO attributed Ecobank’s encouraging results to its customer-centric approach and initiatives aimed at revenue diversification, growth, and low-cost deposit mobilization.

The consumer and commercial banking businesses witnessed an increase in their share of group-wide revenues and profits, indicating progress in strategic objectives.

However, amidst the overall positive performance, Ecobank’s Nigerian operations faced challenges, with profit before tax declining to $27 million in 2023 from $31 million in 2022, representing a 15% decrease.

The challenging operating environment in Nigeria, characterized by high inflation and currency depreciation, impacted the performance of the Nigerian segment.

Looking ahead, Ecobank remains committed to its strategic agenda, which emphasizes technology-driven innovation, revenue diversification, and cost management.

The group’s focus on disciplined cost management aims to redirect savings into investments in marketing, sales capabilities, and technology, driving sustainable returns in the future.

As shareholders approved a N10 billion rights issue, Ecobank is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities and navigate evolving market dynamics.

With a resilient performance in 2023, Ecobank reaffirms its commitment to driving growth, delivering value to shareholders, and advancing financial inclusion across Africa.

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