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Exit From Recession Spurs N1.05tn Stock Market Investment

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CEO of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), Mr
  • Exit From Recession Spurs N1.05tn Stock Market Investment

With the exit of the Nigerian economy from recession in the second quarter of this year, investors’ positive sentiment towards the stock market has received a boost, STANLEY OPARA writes.

After the country exited its 18-month economic recession in the second quarter of this year, the confidence of local and foreign investors has made a huge leap, which is evident in the equities market gaining N1.05tn so far.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange market capitalisation, which was N11.452tn as of the end of June this year, has moved up by over nine per cent to close at N12.502tn on Friday.

The progression was also evident in the NSE All-Share Index, which rose to 36,320.93 basis points from 33,117.48 basis points.

The National Bureau of Statistics released the second quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product report on September 5, which showed that the economy grew by 0.55 per cent year-on-year.

The growth was largely driven by improvement in the oil and non-oil sectors, which grew by 1.6 per cent and 0.5 per cent year-on-year, respectively in the second quarter.

In their outlook for the year, analysts at Meristem Securities Limited projected that the country’s equities market would close 2017 positively. In a special market report entitled, ‘In Murky Waters…Wading through Uncertainties’, the analysts predicted that the lead index of the NSE would gain 3.49 per cent.

Though the stock market posted weak numbers in the first half of the year owing to subsisting macroeconomic uncertainties, the analysts anticipate a modest recovery towards the tail end of the year.

The report read in part, “However, we note that market recovery is partly hinged on stability in the foreign exchange market and moderation in exchange rate gap between the interbank and parallel markets. Based on our mix of methodologies, we arrived at a 2017 index level of 27,812, 50, indicating a +3.49 per cent potential market return by December 31, 2017.”

Speaking on Nigeria’s exit from recession and the fate of quoted companies, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Guinness Nigeria Plc, Mr. Peter Ndegwa, in an interview with our correspondent, said as a big player in the manufacturing sector, the operating environment had not been all that friendly.

He said, “One of the critical things we need to consider as far as the operating environment is concerned is the GDP, which has started to grow in the second quarter. This is good news as there are signs that the economy is coming out of recession. Again, we need more quarters of positive GDP growth in order to see this reflecting in the consumers’ pockets.

“At the moment, the costs of buying commodities are still going up. So, we can see consumers holding back on spending, reducing frequency of purchases, or spending less anytime they purchase, or going for lower-priced brands. If you look at the other Key Performance Indices, one of which is inflation, it is in double digits; food inflation is about 20 per cent. So, consumers are not in great shape yet.”

The Chief Executive Officer, NSE, Mr. Oscar Onyema, said while the national economy relapsed into recession in 2016 with a contraction of 2.06 per cent, the NSE ASI dropped to its lowest in four years at 22,256.32 basis points.

At the start of the first quarter of this year, he said the market had started showing signs of a rebound that was sustained through the second quarter.

According to the NSE boss, the capital market remains a very reliable forward indicator of economic direction, which is facilitated through market feeds of information.

He said a major drive seen in the current market was being stimulated by local investors, who were embracing market data better than they used to, thus spurring informed investment decisions, among other dividends.

Onyema stated, “Our efforts in improving investors’ education and enhancing the investors’ experience are yielding positive results. The NSE ASI is arguably the best performing index year-to-date in Africa in comparison to major indices in the same league.

“Considering the fact that our market closed the previous year on a negative note, the NSE ASI is up by 32.05 per cent year-to-date. Notably also is the fact that we have witnessed an unprecedented local participation in our market within the last one year.”

The Managing Consultant, CITC Global Consulting, Mr. Tayo Orekoya, said though the country marginally exited economic recession, the corporate result released by quoted companies on the NSE showed that the economy was gradually getting out of the woods post-recession.

He stated that Nigeria had a cause to celebrate as things were beginning to look up despite the economic unease of the past year evident in the degree of forex fluctuations and infrastructural decadence, among other challenges.

“So, despite the challenges that have been there, our companies are returning value to their stakeholders. We need to celebrate them, and we know that they deserve to be celebrated,” Orekoya said.

He called for policy consistency in the country’s financial market, adding that past experiences had shown that when the regulatory framework was right, other thing would fall in place; thus, charting the path for growth.

According to him, the regulators should ensure that the market continues to consolidate on the current gains and ensure consistent education about the capital market operations to the investing public so that confidence can be fully restored.

He said the market needed to attract more capital through fresh listings, stressing that there were lots of indigenous companies that should be encouraged to list on the NSE, especially now that the market was fast rebounding.

“We need to do this to further deepen our market. The more depth the market has, the better it is for the listed firms, investors and the economy at large. Our regulators must encourage this consciously. With this, we can be sure of sustaining current gains seen in the market,” he said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

IMF Gives Nod as Congo Inches Closer to Historic Loan Program Completion

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IMF global - Investors King

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) received a positive review from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday in a crucial step toward completing its first-ever IMF loan program.

Following the completion of the sixth and final review in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, IMF staff are set to recommend to the executive board the approval of the last disbursement of Congo’s three-year $1.5 billion extended credit facility.

This development positions Congo on the brink of achieving a milestone in its financial history.

Despite facing fiscal pressures exacerbated by ongoing conflict in the eastern regions and the recent elections in December 2023, the IMF lauded Congo’s overall performance as “generally positive”.

The country’s economy heavily relies on mineral exports, particularly copper and cobalt, essential components in electric vehicle batteries.

According to the IMF, Congo’s economy exhibited robust growth, expanding by 8.3% last year, fueled largely by its ascent to become the world’s second-largest copper producer.

However, persistent insecurity in eastern Congo, attributed to the activities of over 100 armed groups vying for control over resources and political representation, has hindered the nation’s economic progress.

The positive assessment by the IMF underscores Congo’s achievements in enhancing its economic fundamentals, including an increase in reserves, which reached $5.5 billion by the end of 2023, equivalent to approximately two months of imports.

Despite these gains, challenges remain, with high inflation rates hovering around 24% at the close of last year.

The IMF emphasized the necessity of enacting a new budget law following the renegotiation of a minerals-for-infrastructure contract with China. Under the revised terms, Congo is slated to receive $324 million annually in development financing backed by revenue from a copper and cobalt joint venture.

Looking ahead, the IMF’s executive board is anticipated to deliberate on the staff recommendation in July. If approved, the disbursement of approximately $200 million will fortify Congo’s international reserves, providing a crucial buffer against economic volatility.

Also, Congo’s government intends to seek a new Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from the IMF, signaling its commitment to ongoing economic reforms and sustainable growth.

The IMF’s endorsement represents a significant validation of Congo’s economic trajectory and underscores the nation’s efforts to navigate complex challenges while advancing towards financial stability and prosperity.

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Banking Sector

Access Holdings Plc Grants 23.81 Million Shares to Directors, Valued at N420 Million

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Access bank

Access Holdings Plc, a leading financial institution, has recently vested approximately 23.81 million shares valued at over N420 million to its directors.

The share vesting process, a common practice in corporate governance, allows employees, investors, or co-founders to gradually receive full ownership rights to shares or stock options over a specified period.

In this instance, Access Holdings Plc has chosen to reward its directors with shares, signifying confidence in their leadership and contributions to the company’s growth trajectory.

Among the beneficiaries of this share allocation are key figures within Access Bank, a subsidiary of Access Holdings Plc, as well as the acting Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO).

Recipients include Sunday Okwochi, the company secretary, who received 1.2 million shares at N17.95 per share, and Hadiza Ambursa, a director of Access Bank, who was allocated 1.72 million shares at the same price.

Other directors, such as Gregory Jobome, Chizoma Okoli, Iyabo Soji-Okusanya, Seyi Kumapayi, and Roosevelt Ogbonna, also received allocations ranging from 1.234 million to 12.345 million shares, each valued between N17.85 and N17.95 per share.

Bolaji Agbede, the acting Group CEO of Access Holdings, was granted 2.216 million shares at N17.95 per share, further solidifying his stake in the company’s success.

This move by Access Holdings Plc comes amidst a dynamic economic landscape, where organizations are strategically positioning themselves to navigate challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

By incentivizing its directors through share vesting, the company aims to foster a sense of ownership and accountability while motivating top talent to drive innovation and sustainable growth.

The share vesting scheme not only rewards directors for their past contributions but also incentivizes them to remain committed to the company’s long-term vision.

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Loans

Ghana’s $20 Billion Debt Restructuring Hangs in the Balance Amid LGBTQ Legal Challenge

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Ghana's Parliament

Ghana’s Supreme Court is set to commence hearings on a case that threatens the country’s $20 billion debt restructuring deal while simultaneously testing the World Bank’s commitment to LGBTQ rights support.

At the heart of the legal battle is a challenge to legislation that seeks to criminalize LGBTQ identities in Ghana.

The contentious law not only proposes severe penalties for individuals identifying as LGBTQ but also threatens punishment for those who fail to report individuals to the authorities, including family members, co-workers, and teachers.

If the Supreme Court upholds the legislation, Ghana risks not only perpetuating discrimination but also jeopardizing crucial financial support from international institutions, including the World Bank.

The implications extend beyond Ghana’s borders, potentially setting a precedent for how the World Bank engages with issues of LGBTQ rights and human rights more broadly across the globe.

The stakes are high for Ghana’s economy, which has been grappling with a heavy debt burden. The leaked memo from the finance ministry in April warned that endorsing the legislation could endanger approximately $3.8 billion of World Bank funding over the next five to six years.

Furthermore, it could derail a $3 billion bailout program from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and hamper efforts to restructure the country’s $20 billion of external liabilities.

The legal challenge comes amidst a broader debate about the balance between national sovereignty, international lending standards, and human rights. The World Bank, a significant source of development finance for Ghana, finds itself caught in a delicate position.

While it has historically emphasized non-discrimination and social standards in its lending practices, it also faces pressure to respect the sovereignty of the countries it engages with.

Ghana’s debt restructuring and economic recovery efforts hinge on continued support from international financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF.

However, the outcome of the Supreme Court case could complicate these efforts, potentially leading to a withdrawal of financial assistance and further economic instability.

The situation underscores the complexities of navigating the intersection of economic development, human rights, and national sovereignty.

As Ghana’s Supreme Court prepares to hear arguments on the LGBTQ legislation, the outcome of the case remains uncertain, leaving both advocates for LGBTQ rights and supporters of Ghana’s debt restructuring deal anxiously awaiting a decision that could shape the country’s future trajectory.

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