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Gas Production to Grow Faster Than Oil by 2022

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  • Gas Production to Grow Faster Than Oil by 2022

Gas production will grow faster than oil and coal over the next five years, helped by low prices, ample supply, and its role in reducing air pollution and other emissions, according to a new analysis and forecasts to 2022 by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In its new five-year forecast to 2022, gas demand is expected to grow at 1.6 per cent yearly, a slight upward revision from last year’s forecast of 1.5 per cent.

IEA said that this means that yearly gas consumption almost reaches 4,000 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2022, from around 3,630 bcm in 2016.

It noted that Egypt, Algeria, and Nigeria are the main countries pushing consumption higher, even though lower hydrocarbon revenues and economic growth hold back demand in some resource-rich parts of the continent.

EIA said in Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy, militant attacks on gas facilities, the absence of political reforms, and a lack of investment have led to structural gas shortages.

According to the agency, the reduction in gas-fired power generation by 50 per cent from recent average levels has deprived millions of electricity power and hurt the economy.

“Growth is relatively strong in the power sector, where there are opportunities to substitute gas for oil, as well as in the industry sector as the region’s economies grow and diversify. Consumption in Africa rises even more quickly, at 3.1 per cent per year, to reach more than 150bcm.

“Oversupplied markets will also keep pressure on prices and discourage new upstream investment in gas production and LNG liquefaction capacity. At the same time, market reforms in places like Egypt, Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico have the potential to bring new investments and technologies to unlock vast domestic resources, creating new prospects for the gas industry,” it added.

It stated that the demand in the main gas-consuming sector – power generation, continues to expand, but at a much more modest rate of less than one per cent annually. In many mature markets, the rapid increase in power generation from renewables, combined with modest growth in electricity demand, limits opportunities for thermal generation. In many emerging markets that rely on imported gas, especially those without a price on carbon or strict regulations on air pollution, gas faces very strong competition from coal.

Meanwhile, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Ibe Kachikwu, said recently at an event in Lagos that the country can leverage on its enormous gas resource and position it as Africa’s hub for petrochemicals.

This, he said, will have a massive impact on the nation’s economy and Gross Domestic Product.

Kachikwu stated that Nigeria has witnessed an increase in proven national Gas Reserve from 188 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 2015 to 192 Tcf in 2016. “This can be ramped up if we focus on growing our reserve through active exploration,” he added

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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