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Oil Dips After Rising Above $50

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Crude oil
  • Oil Dips After Rising Above $50

Oil prices dipped yesterday in United States (U.S.) trading, as nagging worries about abundant global crude supplies dragged prices lower after an early rally pushed Brent above $50 per barrel for the first time since early June.

Traders predicted prices would hold near current levels ahead of Monday’s meeting between key Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers in St. Petersburg, Russia. The market has been watching reports that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude producer, is considering an additional supply cut to bring markets into balance.

Nigeria’s budget of N7.44trillion was benchmarked at an oil price of $44.5 per barrel and production of 2.2million barrels per day.

The Financial Times reported two days ago that the Saudis were considering additional cuts, citing a consultant’s report. On Tuesday, Reuters reported the country was committed to working with other countries to draw down stocks, taking into account the surprising increase in production from OPEC members Nigeria and Libya.

The OPEC and non-OPEC allies, including Russia, agreed last year to cut production by 1.8 million bpd a day; that deal has been extended to March 2018.

Brent futures stood at $49.62 a barrel at 11:27 a.m. EDT, down 7 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $47.01 a barrel, 11 cents lower.

In early trade, both benchmarks rose to their highest since June 7, after rallying in the previous session on data showing U.S. crude and fuel inventories fell sharply last week.

U.S. crude inventories dropped by 4.7 million barrels in the week to July 14, according to the Energy Information Administration, more than forecast.

Gasoline stocks fell by 4.7 million barrels, exceeding expectations, while distillate stocks also fell.

“I’m skeptical, after seeing many years of drawdowns in summer driving season,” said Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We’re waiting to see if this is really what’s going on or the normal seasonal drop-off.”

U.S. oil stocks, at roughly 490 million barrels, remain well above the five-year average, while U.S. production has increased almost 12 per cent since mid-2016 to 9.4 million barrels per day (bpd).

Oil futures also fell in tandem with other risk markets in the mid-morning after Bloomberg reported that Robert Mueller, special counsel appointed to investigate allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible ties with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, was also looking into Trump’s business transactions. Stock markets and the dollar dropped on that news before recovering somewhat.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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