Forex

Credit Suisse Turns Bearish on U.S. Dollar Amid Fears of Monetary Policy Impotence

Published

8 years ago

February 11, 2016

Credit Suisse has turned bearish on the U.S. dollar versus the other two G3 currencies for the first time since the greenback’s scintillating rally began in the middle of 2014.

The bank’s currency team, led by Global Head of FX Strategy Shahab Jalinoos, sees EURUSD rising to 1.17 and USDJPY falling to 110 over the next three months.

Concerns about monetary policy impotence—that central bankers will be unable to successfully reflate their economies—are becoming embedded in currency valuations, according to the analysts.

There’s “a growing fear that monetary policy is now ‘pushing on a string,’ at least from an FX perspective,” they wrote. “EUR and JPY are materially stronger now than levels before ECB chief Draghi hinted at more easing and the BoJ introduction of negative rates in January.”

Options traders doubt that the Bank of Japan in particular will be able to keep the yen on its back foot going forward—a development that would bode ill for its attempts to win a decades-long battle against deflation.

“Risk reversal skews are now generally bid for JPY again in the same manner as they were prior to the start of QQE in 2012–the risk of large JPY sell-offs linked to BoJ policy is gradually being priced out,” wrote Jalinoos & Co.

Meanwhile, in part due to fears that monetary stimulus from the ECB and BoJ will fail to bear fruit, investors are skeptical of the Fed’s ability to continue decoupling policy from that of other major central banks.

The much-ballyhooed divergence trade—which analysts at Credit Suisse were quite bullish on in November—is over, according to Jalinoos’ team, which highlighted “an obvious end to the monetary policy divergence trade when looking at rate differentials.”

“It goes without saying that the market is no longer expecting more Fed rate hikes in 2016,” the strategists concede.

The bulk of the initial move in USDJPY that started near the end of 2012 was predicated on presumed monetary divergence, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledging easing on this front, while Ben Bernanke would soon set off the “taper tantrum” in May 2013.

A situation in which the Bank of Japan’s stimulus has run its course—at least on the currency—and expectations for negative rates in the United States continue to mount would send ripples through the entire foreign exchange complex and potentially other asset classes, to boot.

“A violent and persistent turnaround in U.S. rate expectations would certainly classify as the type of scenario that would upset the apple cart for most USD versus G10 forecasts, but especially for USDJPY,” the strategists wrote. “The market is not well positioned psychologically for this outcome.”

As the yen is typically viewed as a risk-off or safe haven currency—and because the USDJPY pair has tracked the S&P 500 fairly closely since Abe’s rise in the polls began—equities could also be adversely affected by a period of relative strength in the Japanese currency.

Bloomberg

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Exchange Rate Today 4th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 4th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,400.

Published

9 hours ago

May 4, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 4th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,400.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,380 and sold it at ₦1,370 on Friday, May 3rd, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,400
Selling Rate: ₦1,390

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Naira

Black Market Dollar Rate Reaches ₦1,380 Today, May 3rd, 2024

US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 at the black market stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380

Published

2 days ago

May 3, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 3rd, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,380.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,350 and sold it at ₦1,340 on Thursday, May 2nd, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,380
Selling Rate: ₦1,370

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, May 2nd, 2024

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

2 days ago

May 2, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.