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FG’s Non-oil Revenue Projection Unrealistic

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budget
  • FG’s Non-oil Revenue Projection Unrealistic

The federal government’s non-oil revenue projections in the 2017 budget are unrealistic, when viewed in the context of past budgets, a report by the Time Economics, a research-focused firm has stated.

The Time Economics stated this in its Mid-Year Report obtained on Monday.

It pointed out that the bulk of non-oil revenue in this year’s budget was expected to come from Value Added Tax (VAT), Companies Income Tax (CIT) and Customs and Excise Duties, revenue sources which underperformed by an average of 26 per cent between 2011 and 2015.

The 2017 Appropriation Bill was signed into law on June 12th, 2017 a month after it was passed by the National Assembly, and over six months after the budget was presented to lawmakers by the President Muhammadu Buhari. The budgeted expenditure in the final version of the bill differed from that in the proposed budget by N143 billion, an increased from N7.298 trillion to N7.441 trillion.

The budget was based on a benchmark crude oil price of $44.5 per barrel, oil production of 2.2 mbpd and an average exchange rate of N305/USD. Revenue is expected to be N5.08 trillion of which N1.999 trillion will come from oil, N1.373 trillion from CIT, VAT, Customs and Excise Duties and Federation Account Levies, N807.57 billion from Independent Revenues, N565.1 billion from Recoveries and N210.9 billion from other revenue sources such as mining.

But the report stressed that in the past, the government’s revenue projections had been quite optimistic; actual federal government revenues were an average of 17 per cent below projected revenue between 2011 and 2015.

“In 2016, total half year revenues from these sources were 54 per cent below projections. Although the government reduced its expected revenue from these sources from N1.392 trillion to N1.373 trillion, its projection is still quite unrealistic.

“These revenue sources are dependent on the performance of the economy, which is projected to grow by only one per cent from its 2016 level.

Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that any increase in the actual revenues realised in 2017 – even after accounting for the growth in the economy and a higher level of tax compliance – will be enough to prevent substantial underperformance in non-oil revenue.”

At the end of 2015, GDP per capita was approximately $1900, using an exchange rate of N197/USD and a population of 182.2 million (World Bank). Full year GDP growth for 2016 was -1.58 per cent, and if assumed that Nigeria’s population grew by 2.5 per cent, and an exchange rate of N305/USD, GDP per capita fell to $1177. This decline in income over a single year was quite substantial but it was even worse when compared to GDP per capita in 2014 which was approximately $2200, a 47 per cent decline in just two years, the report added.

“If the economy grows by one per cent in 2017, and the exchange rate is unchanged at N305/USD, GDP per capita falls further to $1160, again assuming 2.5 per cent population growth. Given the significant reduction in income for the average Nigerian since 2014, and the high rate of population growth, GDP growth will have to be above 5% for a long time for Nigerians to have any chance of regaining their lost income,” it stated.

Most analysts and observers expect growth in the Nigerian economy to be about one per cent in 2017 based on expectations of higher oil prices and production. The major reasons for the recession in 2016 were lower oil production due to an insurgency in the Niger Delta region, the fall in global oil prices, and a low level of budget implementation by the government. Higher oil prices in 2017 on the back of an OPEC oil output cut agreement and higher oil production as the government begins to find a solution to the insurgency problem should be enough to see the economy return to growth in 2017.

However, the contraction of the economy in 2016 combined with population growth and the depreciation of the Naira means that the average Nigerian’s 2017 income in Dollar terms will not return to the level of 2014 /15 any time soon, even with the anticipated one per cent growth, the report argued.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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