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Business Undeterred by Sluggish Q1 Performance

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  • Business Undeterred by Sluggish Q1 Performance

Amid a sluggish economic performance in the first quarter of 2017, the Business Confidence Monitor indicated growing confidence among businesses operating in the country.

While the exit timeline from the current economic recession continues to generate debate among different stakeholders, indications of an increasing confidence level in the economy among businesses operating in different sectors of the nation’s economy have begun to emerge, according to The Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) that was released last week by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).

The report obtained revealed that indices for the leading business indicators reviewed such as production, operating profit and employment were at positive readings of 9.8, 8.2 and 4.7 respectively. On the other hand, cost of doing business and access to credit indices stood at negative trajectories of -41.3 and -23.7 respectively, even though senior managers and business executives polled in the survey demonstrated optimism of better performance in the next two quarters.

The report obtains qualitative information on the current state of businesses’ sentiments within the Nigerian economy and gauges expectations about the overall economic activities in the short-term and is anchored on business managers’ optimism on key leading economic indicators such as investment, prices, demand conditions, employment etc.

The report findings are categorised under four themes, namely business conditions and performance in Q1-2017, future business sentiments, factors militating against business performance and overall BCM outlook in Nigeria. Indices of performance, expectation and overall outlook were reported both on aggregate and sectoral bases.

According to the Head of Research NESG, Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, “The BCM provides policy makers, business managers, investors, and analysts, with information about current conditions that are representative of the direction of the Nigerian economy. Additionally, it offers strong guide of the overall direction of the economy, it illustrates what is driving change and highlights the key concerns of businesses for policy makers,” he stated.

Sectors Covered

The economic sectors in the report cut across the different sector of the nation’s economy such as Manufacturing, including food, beverage and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel and Footwear; Cement; Chemical and Pharmaceutical Products; Plastic and Rubber products; Wood and Wood Products; Pulp, Paper and Paper Products; Non-Metallic Products; Electrical and Electronics; Basic metal, Iron and Steel; Motor vehicles and assembly and Other Manufacturing.

The sectors also included services such as Telecoms and Information Services; Broadcasting; Financial Institutions; Real Estate; Professional, Scientific and Technical Services. Others are Non-Manufacturing Industries such as Crude Petroleum; Natural Gas, Oil and Services; Construction, as well as wholesale trade and retail trade.

Business in Q1 2017

Analysis from the report showed that on average, more businesses performed poorly between January and March 2017. The BCM’s Business Condition Index exhibits a slight dip in Q1, standing at a net balance of -5.4. Beyond the tendency for economic inertia in every first quarter, the result is a case of uneven business mood being carried forward from unpredictable business climate of 2016.

The report also stated that, “The business operating environment remained the major hurdle for businesses in Q1 2017. The largest negative contributions to the business condition came from cost of doing business index at -41.3 and access to credit index at -23.7. The financial environment continued to constrain the business climate. While drastic intervention by CBN in the FX market provided some liquidity and stability in the market, businesses (particularly manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries) continued to grapple with the issues of access to credit. Consequently, the level of investment declined with an index of -15.3. Similarly, businesses reported that their export order books were below normal levels, resulting in an export index of -4.7. Consequently, the effect was reflected in higher input cost of production.

However, the report posited that “Despite the challenging business environment, some leading indicators such as production, demand conditions and operating profit emerged positive in Q1 2017. Production index stands at +9.8, demand condition and operating profit indices stand at +3.2 and +8.2, respectively. While business activities improved in the services sector, manufacturing, trade, construction, oil and gas sectors reported decline in their activities.”

BCM Q1 2017 Key Findings

According to the report, responses from firms surveyed in Q1 2017 revealed that there was a strong indication that economic activities will continue to gather momentum over the next few quarters, with most of the key BCM leading indicators showing positive outlook. Overall, the BCM index stands at + 14.4.

The report stated that, “Although most business activities declined between January and March 2017 compared to 4th quarter 2016, this does not deter output expansion plan by managers and business executives in the next few months. Such decline crept in from inevitable consequence of domestic policy uncertainties that ravaged the economy in the preceding year. As reflected in the BCM uncertainty index, about 42 per cent of firms reported that the business activities remained unchanged compared to 4th quarter 2016.

“Despite cautious behaviour observed in the first quarter, optimism of businesses regarding the outlook outweighed their actual experience in the first quarter. The future expectation index stood at a balance of +34, suggesting that business and economic activities will witness some moderate bounce-back. With regard to the economic sectors, services and non-manufacturing are considerably more optimistic with positive indices of +28.4 and +24.1 in Q1-2017, respectively. The Manufacturing and Trade sectors exhibit cautious optimism about the outlook with indices of +14.7 and +12.4, respectively,” the report stated.

Continuing, the report further stated that, “Taken alongside the leading indicators, general business situation (+29), production (+20) and demand conditions (+17) will improve in subsequent quarters. The rising producer prices (+1.5), will likely contract investment in trade sector, but manufacturing, services and non-manufacturing industries will likely move into period of business expansion investment, with investment indices of +8.6, +26.7, and +5.2, respectively.

Future Expectations

In terms of future expectations, the BCM revealed a positive index of 34, which indicates positive sentiments and perception of business activities in the next two quarters: Q2 and Q3 2017.

On the future expectations, the report further averred that, “Indeed, expectations for output expansion, increased domestic sales, increased staffing levels and improved demand conditions appeared to drive this positive business outlook for this period. Sectors such as Manufacturing, Construction and Oil & Gas are expected to experience improved output in subsequent quarters. However, trade sector remains pessimistic about the future business activities with an index of -28.

Conclusion

Omisakin explained that, “All leading indicators point to positive sentiment and expectation across the board as managers were generally optimistic about business performance in the next two quarters.”

According to him, “This outlook is intuitively driven by improved efficiency in economic management (monetary, fiscal and trade). For instance, the recent launch of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), which aims to deliver a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.2 per cent in 2017 coupled with reforms to ease the business environment, obviously influenced the perception of business and economic outlook in Nigeria.”

“Going forward, the NESG expects improvement in local production and increased patronage of Nigerian-made goods and services. Overall, by our forecast released in January 2017, we project positive GDP growth rate and general economic outlook in the year 2017,” he added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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DLM Trust Unveils DLM Single Asset Trust

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DLM Capital Group

DLM Trust, a subsidiary of DLM Capital Group is thrilled to announce the launch of DLM Single Asset Trust.

The model is a variant of the Living Trust construct that allows for a groundbreaking solution for individuals or Corporations seeking to settle assets into a trust, for the benefit of themselves and their chosen beneficiaries.

The DLM Single Asset Trust guarantees that peoples’ assets are protected and managed in accordance with their intentions by operating under the tenets of trust, security, and careful management. The DLM SAT offers a novel approach to trust services by fusing state-of-the-art technology with knowledgeable advice to enable people and families effortlessly manage their assets.

DLM SAT enables individuals, often referred to as Settlors, to create a single asset trust that will serve both their own and their designated beneficiaries’ purposes. The Trust Fund may be started using the Settlor’s assets/funds and then expanded with future contributions in accordance with the Settlor’s goals. Only authorised individuals, including the settlor, can access the trust because of its strong independent and confidentiality level. DLM Trust Company holds the Fund in trust and manages it for the benefit of the Settlor and designated Beneficiaries.

In a statement, MD of DLM Trust, Lola Razaaq commented on the introduction of the DLM Single Asset Trust, stating that it is a means of establishing a timeline for legacy preservation. “The DLM SAT is our newest offering, and we are thrilled to announce this important milestone for DLM Trust.” The aim of our organisation is to equip people and families with the necessary resources and assistance to safeguard and maintain their heritage for future generations. “Furthermore, we are transforming the concept of future planning with DLM Single Asset Trust.” she said.

DLM Trust Company Limited is registered with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and incorporated under the Companies and Allied Matters Act to provide trust services to individuals, corporations, sub-sovereign entities. As always, strategic thinking and innovation will be combined by DLM Trust Company to offer its clients best-in-class services. Since its founding, DLM Trust has worked on a variety of creative and unique transactions, including securitizations, private and public bonds.

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Shell’s $2.4bn Asset Sale Under Close Scrutiny

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Shell

The proposed $2.4 billion asset sale by energy giant Shell to Renaissance Africa Energy has become the focal point of intense scrutiny as the Federal Government of Nigeria aims to ensure transparency and regulatory compliance in the transaction.

The deal has sparked widespread interest and raised questions about its implications for the country’s energy landscape.

Shell, a prominent British energy major with a century-long history of operations in the Niger Delta, announced in January its intention to divest its Nigerian onshore subsidiary, Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited, to Renaissance Africa Energy.

This landmark agreement, if finalized, would represent a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s energy sector dynamics.

Renaissance Africa Energy, a consortium comprising five companies, including four Nigerian-based exploration and production firms and an international energy group, has confirmed its participation in the deal.

The consortium’s involvement underscores its strategic positioning to capitalize on Nigeria’s vast energy resources and contribute to the country’s economic development.

The proposed transaction, however, is contingent upon approvals from the Federal Government of Nigeria and other relevant regulatory bodies.

To ensure adherence to regulatory protocols and safeguard national interests, the government has initiated a comprehensive due diligence process, commencing with a high-level meeting held on Monday.

Parties involved in the deal, alongside officials from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), convened in Abuja for a thorough examination of the transaction details.

Gbenga Komolafe, the Chief Executive of NUPRC, outlined the government’s objective to conclude the divestment exercise by June, underscoring the importance of timely and meticulous evaluation.

Komolafe revealed that the government has enlisted the expertise of two globally renowned consulting firms, S&P Global and the BCG Group, to facilitate the due diligence process.

These consultants, recognized for their proficiency in financial analysis and regulatory compliance, will collaborate with NUPRC to ensure that the transaction aligns with industry best practices and regulatory standards.

The due diligence meeting served as a forum to discuss the proposed divestment of Shell’s participating interests in the SPDC JV assets, which are currently operated by the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigerian Limited.

These assets, awarded as Oil Exploration Licence-1 in 1949, have played a pivotal role in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon industry, contributing significantly to the nation’s crude oil and gas output.

With an estimated total reserve of nearly 5 billion barrels of oil and extensive gas resources, the SPDC JV assets hold immense strategic importance for Nigeria’s energy security and economic prosperity.

However, as Nigeria seeks to optimize its energy sector operations, the selection of a responsible and capable successor to manage these assets remains paramount.

As discussions continue and the due diligence process unfolds, stakeholders remain optimistic about the prospects of the deal.

Representatives from Shell, Renaissance Africa Energy, and regulatory authorities expressed their commitment to ensuring a transparent and seamless transition, with the overarching goal of advancing Nigeria’s energy sector agenda.

The outcome of the scrutiny surrounding Shell’s $2.4 billion asset sale will not only shape the future of Nigeria’s energy landscape but also demonstrate the country’s commitment to fostering a conducive investment environment and promoting sustainable development in the oil and gas sector.

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POS Terminal Deployment in Nigeria Hits 2.68 Million in March 2024

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POS Business in Nigeria

The total Point of Sale (POS) terminals deployed across Nigeria have now reached 2.68 million as of March 2024.

According to data released by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), this represents a Year-on-Year (YoY) growth rate of 47.36% and reflects the accelerating pace of digitalization within the nation’s financial sector.

The proliferation of POS terminals signals a fundamental shift towards cashless transactions, as businesses and consumers increasingly embrace the convenience and efficiency offered by digital payment solutions.

This surge in adoption highlights the growing reliance on technology to facilitate financial transactions, driving innovation and transforming the way commerce is conducted across various sectors of the economy.

Breaking down the figures, January 2024 saw a deployment of 2.47 million POS terminals, representing a significant YoY increase of 50.61% compared to the same period in 2023.

Similarly, February 2024 witnessed a surge in deployment with 2.58 million POS terminals, marking a YoY growth rate of 54.49% compared to February 2023.

While these numbers paint a picture of rapid expansion, a closer examination reveals that there are over a million registered POS terminals yet to be deployed or taken up by merchants.

In January 2024, the number of registered terminals reached 3.44 million, rising from 2.31 million in 2023. February and March continued this trend, with registered terminals reaching 3.6 million and 3.73 million respectively in 2024.

The increase in registered POS terminals underscores the potential for further expansion and utilization within Nigeria’s digital payment landscape.

As the number of terminals continues to grow, there is a clear indication of the country’s readiness to embrace cashless transactions on a broader scale, paving the way for increased financial inclusion and efficiency.

Industry stakeholders view this surge in POS terminal deployment as a positive step towards realizing Nigeria’s vision of becoming a digital economy powerhouse.

However, challenges such as infrastructure development, regulatory frameworks, and merchant adoption still need to be addressed to fully harness the potential of digital payments in driving economic growth and development.

As Nigeria moves towards a cashless future, collaboration between the public and private sectors will be crucial in overcoming these challenges and ensuring that the benefits of digitalization are accessible to all segments of society.

With the continued expansion of POS terminal deployment, Nigeria is poised to emerge as a leader in digital payments innovation, transforming the way transactions are conducted and driving economic progress in the process.

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