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Iraqi Minister: OPEC May Ask Nigeria to Cut Oil Output

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Heritage Oil - Investors King
  • Iraqi Minister: OPEC May Ask Nigeria to Cut Oil Output

Iraq’s oil minister, Jabar Ali al-Luaibi, has indicated that Nigeria and Libya may be asked to cut oil productions in the new supply cut deal to be reached by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Speaking at a press conference in Baghdad, Al-Luaibi expressed Iraq’s readiness to join Saudi Arabia and Russia in the proposed extension of the oil deal by another nine months.

According to Reuters, OPEC heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Iraq agreed Monday on the need to extend a global cut in oil supply by nine months in an effort to prop up crude oil prices, removing a potential stumbling block as producing countries prepare to meet this week.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said he did not expect any opposition within OPEC to extending the curbs for a further nine months, speaking after he met his Iraqi counterpart in Baghdad.

Al-Luaibi, however, added that the production cut be increased from the current 1.8 million barrels per day, hinting that “small oil producing countries” who were excused from the initial deal be made to participate in the new deal.

When OPEC and non-OPEC countries made an historic deal in 2016 to cut global crude oil supply, Nigeria and Libya were excused on the basis that both countries were experiencing low production due to geopolitical unrest.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, had also recently said Nigeria would be seeking another six months exemption from the OPEC deal.

OPEC oil ministers will be meeting in Vienna on Thursday to discuss the future of the global crude oil market and prepare for fresh cuts across board.

A cut in production for Nigeria could jeopardise the country’s 2017 budget, which has been benchmarked against an oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day.

In a related development, the Secretary General of the oil cartel, Mr. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, has stated that with the rebalancing of the oil market, the organisation was beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel.

His statement came as India’s Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan called on OPEC to ensure “responsible prices” for crude oil, stressing that the cartel should treat Asian markets as primary markets, as its strategy of incentivising Western markets in the past did not result in the retention of those markets.

According to Pradhan, higher crude oil prices would force consuming countries to go for alternative forms of energy, which would slow down the demand for crude oil.

Speaking Monday at the second high-level meeting of the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue held in Vienna, Austria, Barkindo appreciated the bold economic reforms undertaken by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

According to a statement by the OPEC Secretariat, Barkindo applauded what he described as the de-monetisation and the General Service Tax initiatives and the way India has managed to overcome the global economic slowdown.

He also highlighted the fact that with India’s high growth rate and its dynamic services and strong manufacturing sectors, the country has become a global economic powerhouse.

Barkindo said he saw tremendous value and substance in the energy dialogue, particularly when looking at the ever-expanding co-operation between India and OPEC member countries.

“With OPEC, which is home to over 80 per cent of the world’s proven crude oil reserves, and with many of its member countries well-positioned for exports to India, it is clear that this co-operation will expand further,” Barkindo added.

In his remarks, India’s petroleum minister underlined the importance of the energy dialogue, as well as the co-operation between OPEC member countries and India, with 86 per cent of the country’s crude oil imports coming from OPEC nations.

He called on the cartel to guarantee responsible pricing, as its strategy of incentivising the Western markets in the past did not work.

According to Pradhan, it was expected that the dialogue mechanism would be a useful tool to convey his country’s position to the OPEC member countries.

He said under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has the most stable political environment with a solid macro-economic base that is largely insulated from the global slowdown.

He noted that he had raised the issue of the “Asian dividend not Asian premium”, adding that the issue of Asian premiums still continues to exist with Indian companies paying billions of dollars on this account.

“They still don’t understand the rationale of this cross-subsidisation of the tariff between West and the East. Coming to the India-OPEC dialogue, it is crucial for us as we import about 86 per cent of our crude, 70 per cent of natural gas, 95 per cent of cooking gas from the OPEC countries.

“OPEC should treat Asian markets as primary markets. Its strategy of incentivising Western markets in the past did not result in retaining those markets.

“I am fully aware that OPEC member countries are in the business of selling oil and not subsidising it. However, my purpose of raising this issue again today is to say don’t subsidise others at our expense.

“I urge OPEC and through you also to Non-OPEC countries to purposefully consider this. The other issue I have been raising is that OPEC should work towards responsible pricing, which would allow major consuming countries to provide energy to the common people.

“Higher prices would force them to go for alternative forms of energy which would be slowing down the demand for crude oil,” he explained.

He also stressed the importance of India’s expanding refining and petrochemicals sector.

His delegation included India’s seven chief executives from both the public and private sectors, who head the 23 refineries in India that process around 4.7 million barrels of crude oil per day.

The high-level meeting saw presentations from OPEC on short-term oil market developments, as well as the long-term energy outlook.

But even as OPEC member countries prepare to meet in Vienna on oil cuts, an explosion at the weekend rocked the Nigerian Gas Company (NGC) pipeline close to Kurutie in Gbaramatu Kingdom, Warri South West Local Government Area of Delta State

The explosion, according to sources, appeared to have been caused by yet-to-be identified saboteurs.

The gas pipeline is located near Camp 5, which was once the base of ex-militant leader, Government Ekpemukpolo, better known as Tompolo, at the height of the first round of militancy experienced in the Niger Delta eight to 12 years ago, but was taken over by the military that established a base there.

The explosion, which occurred between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. last Saturday, was already impacting NGC’s capacity to meet its gas supply obligations to customers.

Commenting on the incident, the spokesman of Gbaramatu Kingdom, Chief Godspower Gbenekama, said the explosion might have been the result of a rupture on the pipeline, as no community or interests in the kingdom had any reason to attack any government asset in the area.

However, the Community Relations Officer of the Nigeria Gas Processing and Transportation Company (NGPTC), Violin Antaih, said visuals from the site of the incident suggested an act of sabotage.

Antaih, who spoke on the phone to newsmen Monday night, said the incident had all the trappings of deliberate sabotage on the facility, causing a serious breach in the daily operations of the company.

“It’s been confirmed, even by the community people, that it was a third party sabotage. If you have a picture of the blast you will know too well that’s exactly what happened because the pipeline was cut into two, a ruptured pipeline will not have such effect.

“It’s a case of a blast that has left the pipeline the way it is at the moment. If you see the pictures, you will see that this is not just an equipment failure, it was a blast.

“We are still doing our investigation anyway, although it has been confirmed that it was a sabotage because it occurred a few meters from Camp 5, a military base, without even the military being aware of it and we are still trying to get their own input on the attack.

“But investigations are still ongoing and I am sure at the end of the day we’ll have a position on it.

“The pipeline was active when it was attacked. Our people have been sent to the site to ascertain the state of things. We are already feeling the impact on our operations because I understand pressure is completely out because that line is supposed to feed some areas and such areas are already complaining,” Antaih said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Drop Sharply, Marking Steepest Weekly Decline in Three Months

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Amidst concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the potential timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, oil prices record its sharpest weekly decline in three months.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, settled 71 cents lower to close at $82.96 a barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 84 cents, or 1.06% to end the week at $78.11 a barrel.

The primary driver behind this decline was investor apprehension regarding the impact of sustained borrowing costs on the U.S. economy, the world’s foremost oil consumer. These concerns were amplified after the Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates at their current levels this week.

Throughout the week, Brent experienced a decline of over 7%, while WTI dropped by 6.8%.

The slowdown in U.S. job growth, revealed in April’s data, coupled with a cooling annual wage gain, intensified expectations among traders for a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank.

Tim Snyder, an economist at Matador Economics, noted that while the economy is experiencing a slight deceleration, the data presents a pathway for the Fed to enact at least one rate cut this year.

The Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged this week, despite acknowledging elevated inflation levels, has prompted a reassessment of the anticipated timing for potential rate cuts, according to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.

Higher interest rates typically exert downward pressure on economic activity and can dampen oil demand.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the second consecutive week, reaching the lowest count since January 2022, as reported by Baker Hughes.

The oil and gas rig count fell by eight to 605, with the number of oil rigs dropping by seven to 499, the most significant weekly decline since November 2023.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict have somewhat eased as discussions for a temporary ceasefire progress with international mediators.

Looking ahead, the next meeting of OPEC+ oil producers is scheduled for June 1, where the group may consider extending voluntary oil output cuts beyond June if global oil demand fails to pick up.

In light of these developments, money managers reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week leading up to April 30, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound After Three Days of Losses

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After enduring a three-day decline, oil prices recovered on Thursday, offering a glimmer of hope to investors amid a volatile market landscape.

The rebound was fueled by a combination of factors ranging from geopolitical developments to supply concerns.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria oil is priced, surged by 79 cents, or 0.95% to $84.23 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 69 cents, or 0.87% to $79.69 per barrel.

This turnaround came on the heels of a significant downturn that had pushed prices to their lowest levels since mid-March.

The recent slump in oil prices was primarily attributed to a confluence of factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and concerns surrounding stubborn inflation, which could potentially dampen economic growth and limit oil demand.

Also, unexpected data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealing a substantial increase in U.S. crude inventories added further pressure on oil prices.

“The updated inventory statistics were probably the most salient price driver over the course of yesterday’s trading session,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

Crude inventories surged by 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations and casting a shadow over market sentiment.

However, the tide began to turn as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas gained traction, offering a glimmer of hope for stability in the volatile Middle East region.

The prospect of a ceasefire agreement, spearheaded by Egypt, injected optimism into the market, offsetting concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions.

“As the impact of the U.S. crude stock build and the Fed signaling higher-for-longer rates is close to being fully baked in, attention will turn towards the outcome of the Gaza talks,” noted Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.

The potential for a resolution in the Israel-Hamas conflict provided a ray of hope, contributing to the positive momentum in oil markets.

Despite the optimism surrounding ceasefire talks, tensions in the Middle East remain palpable, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating plans for a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

The precarious geopolitical climate continues to underpin volatility in oil markets, reminding investors of the inherent risks associated with the commodity.

In addition to geopolitical developments, speculation regarding U.S. government buying for strategic reserves added further support to oil prices.

With the U.S. expressing intentions to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at prices below $79 a barrel, market participants closely monitored price movements, anticipating potential intervention to stabilize prices.

“The oil market was supported by speculation that if WTI falls below $79, the U.S. will move to build up its strategic reserves,” highlighted Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, owned by Nissan Securities.

As oil markets navigate a complex web of geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, the recent rebound underscores the resilience of the commodity in the face of adversity.

While challenges persist, the renewed optimism offers a ray of hope for stability and growth in the oil sector, providing investors with a semblance of confidence amidst a volatile landscape.

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Gold

Gold Soars as Fed Signals Patience

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Gold emerged as a star performer as the Federal Reserve adopted a more patient stance, sending the precious metal soaring to new heights.

Amidst a backdrop of uncertainty, gold’s ascent mirrored investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets and reflected their interpretation of the central bank’s cautious approach.

Following the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current levels, gold prices surged toward $2,330 an ounce in early Asian trade, building on a 1.5% gain from the previous session – the most significant one-day increase since mid-April.

The dovish tone struck by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the announcement provided the impetus for gold’s rally, as he downplayed the prospects of imminent rate hikes while underscoring the need for further evidence of cooling inflation before considering adjustments to borrowing costs.

This tempered outlook from the Fed, which emphasized patience and data dependence, bolstered gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Investors interpreted the central bank’s stance as a signal of continued support for accommodative monetary policies, providing a tailwind for the precious metal.

Simultaneously, the Japanese yen surged more than 3% against the dollar, sparking speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.

This move further weakened the dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of gold to investors seeking refuge from currency volatility.

Gold’s ascent in recent months has been underpinned by a confluence of factors, including robust central bank purchases, strong demand from Asian markets – particularly China – and geopolitical tensions ranging from conflicts in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East.

These dynamics have propelled gold’s price upwards by approximately 13% this year, culminating in a record high last month.

At 9:07 a.m. in Singapore, spot gold was up 0.3% to $2,326.03 an ounce, with silver also experiencing gains as it rose towards $27 an ounce.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index concurrently fell by 0.3%, further underscoring the inverse relationship between the dollar’s strength and gold’s allure.

However, amidst the fervor surrounding gold’s surge, palladium found itself trading below platinum after dipping below its sister metal for the first time since February.

The erosion of palladium’s long-standing premium was attributed to a pessimistic outlook for demand in gasoline-powered cars, highlighting the nuanced dynamics within the precious metals market.

As gold continues its upward trajectory, investors remain attuned to evolving macroeconomic indicators and central bank policy shifts, navigating a landscape defined by uncertainty and volatility.

In this environment, the allure of gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to endure, providing solace to investors seeking stability amidst turbulent times.

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