Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook May 15-19

Published

7 years ago

May 14, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook May 15-19

The US economic data released last week showed the economy is growing at a steady pace ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting in June.

However, there were noticeable weaknesses in the figures. For instance, while the Producer Price Index rose 0.5 percent in April, the inflation rate rose less than projected –up 0.2 percent from plunging 0.3 percent in March. Suggesting, perhaps the inflation is not rising as previously anticipated by policy-makers.

Similarly, retail sales climbed 0.4 percent in April. Also, below the 0.6 percent expected by experts but more than the 0.1 percent increase recorded in March.

This shows that while consumers are optimistic as shown by the University of Michigan consumer sentiment (97.7), inflation is hardly breaking out and wage remains soft. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will feel pressure enough to raise rates in June as that would impact wage and hurt consumer spending substantially.

In the U.K, factory production plunged further by 0.6 percent in March after declining 0.3 percent in February. Indicating that rising inflation has started affecting the manufacturing sector.

Also, the Monetary Policy Committee members voted to keep asset purchase at 435 billion with the official bank rate at 0.25 percent ahead of June 8 election.

Overall, the US economy remains resilient ahead of FOMC meeting in June, however, few inconsistencies may hamper June rate hike and possibly put a temporary stop to the current dollar rally as the market looks to the U.K. for clues on the possible direction of the Brexit.

This week, USDJPY and EURGBP top my list.

USDJPY

Last week this pair gave us 156 pips but was 8 pips short of our target 114.43. While I am not convinced that USDJPY would break 114.43 resistance, given current economic data, there is a probability of price hovering between 112-114 price level before a possible break below the descending channel. A sustained break below 112.47 support levels should increase sell orders and pressure price below 111.81 support levels.

Therefore, this week I will be looking to sell this pair as the market looks to decipher FOMC stance ahead of June rate decision. An optimistic outlook would boost this pair rally and vice versa.

EURGBP

This pair closed as a dragonfly doji on weekly candlestick after data showed the U.K. factory output plunged for second consecutive month.

While this pair has failed to honor the head and shoulders formation shown in the chart, it should also be noted that price has remained above the neckline for the past 5 weeks and closed above 0.8471 resistance level for the first time last week.

Again, with inflation rate rising and manufacturing sector slowing down, consumer spending that contributes about 70 percent of the economy would likely start reflecting those weaknesses. Therefore, this week I will be looking to buy this pair above 0.8471 support level with my target 1 at 0.8557 resistance, the 20-day moving average. A sustained break should attract enough buyers to open up 0.8717 resistance.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

2 days ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

2 days ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

3 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.