Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook April 10-14

Published

7 years ago

April 9, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook April 10-14

The US economy added fewer jobs in March than projected, adding just 98,000 people to the payroll but the unemployment rate improved to 10 years low of 4.5 percent from 4.7 percent recorded in February. While, the figure is disappointing and a lot of analysts have predicted possible change in the Federal Open Market Committee stand, there are other fundamental factors that says otherwise. For instance, wage growth was steady at 2.7 percent year-on-year, while the unemployment claims declined to a 5-week low of 234,000. Perhaps this explained why the U.S dollar gained against all its counterparts on Friday after the report was made public. Again, global uncertainty after the Syria attack continued to aid haven assets and has also boosted the Japanese yen against its counterparts.

On oil, crude oil prices rallied on Friday after the US launched a missile strike against Syria, sparking fears that an escalation of the conflict in the crude-rich Middle East could disrupt supplies and further aid OPEC strategy. However, Fitch Ratings in its latest report forecast crude oil prices would average $52.50 per barrel in 2017. This is $7.4 per barrel higher than $45.1 per barrel recorded in 2016.

Also, crude oil experts and analysts expect the surge in the US oil production to continue disrupting OPEC strategy until both the OPEC and non-OPEC member states reached another consensus on production cut later in the year.

In Canada, the labour market added 19,600 jobs in March but the rise in the number of people looking for a job increased the unemployment rate from 6.6 percent to 6.7 percent in March. Canada has so far created a total of 82,600 jobs in the first three months of the year. This was after weak manufacturing sector plunged job creation in 2016 and impact exports amid global oil glut.

However, the manufacturing sector has expanded from 2016 low to 55.5 in March after recording a 54.7 in February. Also, the manufacturing employment rose by 24,400 in March, making it the highest one-month increase since August 2002. Therefore, businesses and investors are projecting continuous gain in the labour market—especially with the newly signed Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement expected to add at least $25 billion a year to the economy.

In the UK, the services sector rose to 55 in March, pushing businesses to raise their prices at the quickest pace in over 8 years. Experts believed it’s going to be a tough year for consumers following the report that both the manufacturing and construction sectors shrank in February. This further added to signs that the economy is losing momentum.

Last week, the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney urged banks to get contingency plans for all potential Brexit outcomes. Signaling increase uncertainty and possible recession, especially with both consumer spending and housing price slowdown with demands.

Generally, the US economy remains strong with its uncertainty, while Canada’s economy is gradually improving with growing global economic outlook. Both the UK and the Euro-area remains uncertain ahead of Brexit.

This week I will be reviewing past analysis in relation to current happenings.

GBPJPY

In a sequel to my analysis three weeks ago, this pair has dropped 222 pips but yet to hit our first target at 134.90 support levels. But with both the construction and manufacturing sectors shrinking and housing price growth plunging to a 4-month low. I remain bearish on this pair as long as price remains below 141.47, I will expect a sustained break to expose 129.85 targets.

AUDJPY

Last week, this pair topped our list and has since plunged by 163 pips to close at around 83.34, which was below the ascending line called temporary reversal. Therefore, this week I expect the current surge in the yen attractiveness and Aussie weak economic outlook ahead of surging household debt and bubble housing sector to further aid bearish move of this pair towards our last week target of 80.82.

CADJPY

Since I mentioned this pair sell potential three weeks ago, it has failed to sustain its bearish move. Even after giving us about 133 pips and hitting our first target. However, due to the positive Canada’s economic outlook and growing manufacturing sector that has continued to support job creation. I will step aside this week to better assess the pair in relation to series of economic data due this week.

NZDUSD

This pair has plunged 71 pips since last week but far from our target of 0.6716. Therefore, as long as price remains below 0.7071 I am bearish on this pair and will be looking to add to my sell position below 0.6893 support levels for 0.6716 targets.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

2 days ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

3 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.