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Forex Weekly Outlook March 20-24

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USDCAD
  • Forex Weekly Outlook March 20-24

The US dollar declined against most currencies last week following the Federal Reserve decision to raise rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year and third time in the last 10 years.

The greenback uncertainty was further compounded by Trump’s proposed budget released on Thursday, which proposed $54 billion increase in defense spending and equal amount of spending cuts from the smallest part of the Federal budget.

While, Trump won’t be adding to the next year’s projected $487 billion deficit. He won’t be reducing it either.

According to experts, Trump’s proposed budget would worsen things for lower-income Americans and hurt the very people that voted en masse for him.

“This isn’t a budget that will make America great again. It’s a budget that will increase hardship and poverty,” said Robert Greenstein, president of the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

However, the complete budget would be presented in May for better analysis. This month, as the world looks to the U.K. to trigger article 50 amid France populist uprising. Both the Euro single currency and pound sterling are expected to dip as investors look to manage risk exposure and avert erosion of profits.

This week, CADJPY and GBPJPY top my list.

CADJPY

This pair has lost about 200 pips in the last one month, and last week closed below 20-day moving average for the first time since October 2016. However, apart from the surge in global oil prices that has aided Canadian dollar, the United States’ broad proposed increase in productivity and the seemingly friendly relationship between the two nations since Donald Trump won the election has bolstered the loonie attractiveness as shown in the chart below.

Forex Weekly Outlook March 20-24Accordingly, perceived setback to the U.S economy impacts the Canadian dollar outlook, so is the change in commodity prices. While the Japanese Yen on the other hand, gained increased order flow due to the US uncertainty. Therefore, I am bearish on this pair this week as long as 85.61 resistance levels that double as 20-day moving average holds. Also, I expect a sustained break of 83.11 that double as target 1 to open up 80.27 support, target 2.

GBPJPY

The consumer spending that has been supporting the U.K economy has started slowing and so is the retail sales. However, the uncertainty surrounding article 50 of the treaty of Lisbon top global headlines and projected to hurt the U.K long term investment and business outlook.

Similarly, the surge in consumer prices and declining profits of businesses would likely hurt new job creation in the region and further affect the pound sterling attractiveness in the foreign exchange market.

Forex Weekly Outlook March 20-24

Again, this particular pair has been on the decline since January 29 after the weekly bearish engulfing pattern was formed, and has since lost 528 pips. Hence, this week I am bearish on this pair as long as 142.42 resistance holds with 139.90 as my first target. A sustained break should open up 129.85 in days to come.

Last Week Recap

NZDCAD

This pair has explained last week lost about 608 pips since November but rebounded after global oil prices plunged to over 3-month low last week. While I doubt the downside movement is over considering New Zealand economic outlook, I am equally wary of OPEC and Shale differences. Therefore, I will step aside to monitor price action and see if 0.9382 resistance level would be breached. But as long as 0.9505 resistance holds, I am bearish on this pair and will look to sell at first signal of bearish continuity.

Forex Weekly Outlook March 20-24

NZDJPY

NZDJPY continued its downward trend and hit our first target last week.

Forex Weekly Outlook March 20-24

This week, I remain bearish on this pair and will look to add to my position below 78.83 support for one main reason, the Japanese Yen attractiveness increased after the U.S dollar plunged last week, and projected to continue as investors and businesses struggle to decipher proposed 2018 budget amid other uncertainties and how these could impact current economic outlook.

EURNZD

The Euro-single currency plunged last week against most currencies except the US dollar and Canadian dollar. This week I will be standing aside to monitor EURNZD price action and Euro-area unfolding political conundrum ahead of France election and Brexit.

Forex Weekly Outlook March 20-24

Even though, I am still bullish bias as long as 1.5038 holds. I will need a sustained break of 1.5469 to confirm bullish continuation.

EURJPY

EURJPY failed to hit our first target after gaining about 80 pips two weeks ago and plunged last week to close below 121.10 support levels. Also, last week’s candlestick closed as a dark cloud pattern but above 20-day moving average.

Forex Weekly Outlook March 20-24This week, I will be stepping aside for further clarification.

 

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, May 2nd, 2024

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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New Naira Notes

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,350
  • Selling Rate: N1,340

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Forex

Yen’s Plunge Persists Despite Japan’s Late New York Trading Intervention

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yen

Japan’s attempts to shore up the yen faced yet another setback as the currency continued its downward spiral despite a late intervention in New York trading.

Despite efforts by Japanese authorities to stem the yen’s decline, traders remained unfazed, indicating a growing skepticism towards the efficacy of such measures.

The yen, which had initially weakened as much as 1.1% against the dollar during Asia trading, stubbornly clung to its downward trajectory, inching closer to levels seen before the suspected intervention.

Speculations ran rife among traders regarding Japan’s involvement in the currency market after witnessing abrupt fluctuations in the yen’s value during the final stretch of the US trading session.

This recent development underscores a deepening challenge for Japanese policymakers grappling with the yen’s persistent depreciation.

Despite their best efforts, the market sentiment appears to be increasingly immune to intervention tactics, casting doubts on the effectiveness of such measures in the long run.

Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., weighed in on the situation, remarking, “Japan’s finance ministry likely intervened but couldn’t break 152, where investors used to be cautious.”

He further noted, “Now that authorities are seen as having stepped in for a second time but gave the impression that they cannot stop the yen cheapening trend alone, market participants will likely feel more comfortable to short yen.”

The prevailing sentiment among traders suggests a growing consensus that Japan’s interventions may be insufficient to halt the yen’s depreciation trend.

Despite the authorities’ concerted efforts, the currency’s plunge persists, signaling a broader challenge for policymakers in navigating the complexities of the global currency market.

As the yen’s decline continues unabated, market participants remain on high alert, bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.

The inability of intervention measures to reverse the currency’s downward trajectory raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional policy tools in an increasingly interconnected and unpredictable financial landscape.

In the face of mounting challenges, Japanese authorities may find themselves compelled to explore alternative strategies to address the yen’s persistent weakness.

Whether through unconventional policy measures or coordinated efforts with global counterparts, finding a sustainable solution to stabilize the yen remains a pressing priority for policymakers amid evolving market dynamics.

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Forex

BDC Operators in Abuja Face EFCC Crackdown: Chaos Erupts in Wuse Zone 4

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BDC Operators - Investors King

The bustling streets of Wuse Zone 4 in Abuja transformed into a scene of chaos and apprehension as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) conducted a surprise crackdown on Bureau De Change (BDC) operators.

The operation, which unfolded on Monday, sent shockwaves through the financial district, leaving traders and residents bewildered.

Eyewitnesses recounted scenes of pandemonium as EFCC agents descended upon the area, swiftly apprehending an undisclosed number of BDC operators.

The raid, which occurred around noon, disrupted normal trading activities and prompted fear among the local populace.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, BDC operators confirmed the raid, expressing dismay at the sudden turn of events.

“EFCC just raided the market, arresting many operators. They arrested some persons seen on the street and even pursued some persons to their offices. We are still looking for N30,000 or N50,000 to bail those arrested on Friday yet they came again today,” one trader lamented.

The crackdown comes as part of the EFCC’s concerted efforts to combat illicit financial activities and restore stability to the foreign exchange market.

Last Friday, the anti-graft agency announced the arrest of 34 suspected currency speculators for alleged involvement in foreign exchange fraud, signaling a firm stance against financial malpractice.

However, the EFCC’s actions have stirred controversy, with some questioning the efficacy of such raids in addressing underlying issues affecting the Nigerian currency.

Despite these efforts, the naira opened the week on a negative trajectory against the United States dollar, signaling potential challenges ahead.

At the official market on Monday, the naira witnessed a significant depreciation, trading at N1,419 against the dollar, representing a loss of N58 or 4.3% from the previous trading session.

The decline underscores the persistent demand for the greenback amid economic uncertainties.

Currency traders at the Zone 4 market reported heightened volatility, with the dollar trading at N1,340 per dollar, marking a notable increase from the weekend rate.

Amidst the turmoil, traders like Abubakar Taura navigated the fluctuating market, capitalizing on the volatility to secure profits.

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