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Nigeria, Others Must Lower Costs, Says Kachikwu

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Pipeline Vandalism
  • Shale: Nigeria, Others Must Lower Costs

Members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries must lower production costs to compete better with shale oil producers, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, has said.

Industry analysts have said the rising shale oil production in the United States could upend efforts by major producers including OPEC to bring global supply and demand for crude back into balance.

The US shale oil production for March is expected to rise by the most in five months, as energy companies ramp up drilling on the back of the recent rally in oil prices.

Kachikwu, in an interview with the CNBC Africa, also said he was confident that an output reduction agreed in November would see oil prices hold.

Nigeria, which relies on crude sales for around two-thirds of government revenue, saw its economy shrink by 1.5 per cent in 2016 – the first full-year contraction in 25 years – largely due to lower oil receipts.

Eleven of OPEC’s 13 members along with 11 non-OPEC countries agreed to make cuts for the first half of 2017, although Nigeria and fellow OPEC member Libya were exempt due to production setbacks suffered last year.

“OPEC members must lower production costs to compete better with shale producers,” said Kachikwu, quoted in a tweet on the CNBC Africa’s feed.

Kachikwu said he was “impressed with the work OPEC has done” and “confident prices will hold”, but added, “What is more fundamental is what OPEC countries can begin to do for themselves in term of costs, diversification.”

The November 30 agreement to cut production prompted oil prices to rise by $10 a barrel, although they have been trading in a narrow $3 range in the last few weeks.

But analysts say that a revival in the US shale production is likely to limit any major price recovery in crude oil.

The Secretary-General of OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo, on Monday in Abuja said OPEC members lost a cumulative revenue of about $1tn as a result of the crash in crude oil prices, describing the crisis in the oil sector as the worst ever in recent memory.

Crude oil prices crashed from over $100 per barrel in 2014 to as low as $23 in 2016, a development that threw many oil dependent countries into economic crisis.

The Group Managing Director, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Dr. Maikanti Baru, said last week that unit technical cost of production had significantly dropped from above $70 per barrel in 2014 to about $27 per barrel as of 2016 ending.

He said efforts were ongoing to further drive down cost, adding, “But this cannot be achieved without the support, cooperation and collaboration of all stakeholders in the industry. It is worthy to mention that cost reduction will also serve as incentives for investors to grow reserves, increase profitability, thus leading to increased return on investment.”

The pace of the recovery in the US shale oil output is set to pick up steam this month as more crude-producing regions return to growth, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest drilling productivity report.

The EIA forecasts the US shale oil production in seven major regions will rise by a total of 80,000 barrels per day to 4.87 million bpd in March.

This is the third month in a row the agency has projected output to rise.

The increase is nearly double the 41,000-bpd climb the agency expected for February in its last report.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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