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Forex Weekly Outlook February 20-24

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U.S dollar - Investors King
  • Forex Weekly Outlook February 20-24

The US dollar gained against its counterparts last week, after data showed producers price index rose 0.6 percent and inflation also surged 0.6 percent in January. Buttressing the general perception that increased in gasoline cost will pressure consumer prices above the Fed 2 percent inflation target and force the FOMC to adjust interest rates.

However, wage growth remained below projection, plunging to 2.5 percent from 2.8 percent recorded in December, which is capable of hurting consumer spending (0.4%) that has been supporting the economy if the Fed hike rate with declining wages. Therefore, it’s unlikely the fed will move this March as widely speculated, however, Trump new tax policy due to be announced this week can change this view.

On tax policy, the possibility of law makers cutting corporate tax to 20 percent from current 35 percent and the Fed’s hawkish outlook boosted the attractiveness of the US dollar last week. Although, retail business owners are worried that the proposed border tax on import goods will hurt revenues and subsequently affect wages, law makers insisted it will help generate about $1 trillion needed to reduce the deficit. Hence, it is hard to quantify or deduce the US dollar direction ahead of new tax policy.

In the UK, the consumer spending (0.3%) that has been supporting the economy dropped for a third consecutive month in January, signaling that post-Brexit resilience is gradually coming to an end as high consumer prices (food and fuel) seems to have started hurting purchasing power even before March – stipulated date for triggering Brexit.

Consequently, job creation is gradually slowing down, according to the statistics office report for the final quarter of 2016. Also, pay growth fell to 2.6 percent in the same quarter, while labour market is still strong, the pace has cooled in recent time over Brexit uncertainty. Therefore, this is expected to weigh on the British Pound and render it unattractive as investors continued to look elsewhere to avert lost.

In New Zealand, consumer spending remains steady in the last quarter of 2016. Rising 0.8 percent, but the New Zealand dollar declined against its counterparts after RBNZ governor said the continuous gain of the currency could impede growth. Prompting traders to sell-off the haven currency. Overall, the global financial market remains vague ahead of Europe uprising and uncertainty in the US.

This week, GBPUSD and NZDJPY top my list.

GBPUSD

The series of events happening in the Euro-area continued to weigh on the pound outlook. However, Brexit and drop in consumer confidence standout. Whereas the US dollar remained strong and likely to continue so.

Forex Weekly Outlook February 20-24

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Technically, after the pair peaked at 1.2773 in December, its highest post-Brexit, it has lost about 363 pips and failed to top 1.2704 price levels attained this February. Again, the pair is trading below 20-days moving average on the daily candlestick and closed below weekly 20-days moving average, after the doji formed two weeks ago. Indicating the pressure is on the downside as the U.K. prepare to trigger article 50 next month.

Forex Weekly Outlook February 20-24

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This week, I am bearish on GBPUSD as long as 1.2500 holds and will be looking to sell below 1.2426 price levels for 1.2297 targets, a sustained break should open up 1.2148 in days to come. But a negative comment or perceived negative new policy from the U.S. can void this analysis as the world await Trump new tax policy.

NZDJPY

Last week, I wrote extensively on the New Zealand dollar outlook. While the economy remains strong and well-supported by the surging commodity prices, traders seem to be selling the pair after Governor Graeme Wheeler statement on the danger of high foreign exchange to the economy.

Forex Weekly Outlook February 20-24

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The pair called the top at 83.79 price levels, its 8-month high, and dropped 280 pips to close at 81.07 price levels. One of the reasons this is a good sell is the renewed interest in the Japanese yen as investors scramble for safe-haven assets ahead of numerous changes that will be taking place across the Group 8 nations. Again, I don’t think the pair is attractive enough to top its 8-month high after RBNZ statement. Hence, I am bearish on this pair this week and will be looking to sell below 81.02 support for 78.83 targets, a sustained break should boost its attractiveness for 76.23 targets 2.

Last Week Recap

NZDUSD closed below the channel last week but failed to meet our target of 0.6989. However, I remain bearish on NZDUSD this week, one, for the reasons stated above, and two, the continuous gain of the US dollar should aid NZDUSD bearish move below 0.7124 support levels, that also serves as 20-days moving average.

Forex Weekly Outlook February 20-24

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Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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ABCON President Announces Blueprint for Unified Retail Forex Market

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate - Investors King

The President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, has revealed plans to establish a unified retail end forex market structure.

This strategic initiative seeks to address volatility and streamline operations across the Bureaux De Change (BDC) sub-sector.

Gwadabe outlined the objectives of ABCON’s blueprint and the need to integrate operators from various segments of the market.

Central to the plan is the inauguration of state chapters to facilitate coordination, integration, and administration of a united market structure.

ABCON intends to extend its automation policies and platforms to all BDC operators nationwide, upgrading its Business Process Platform to enhance efficiency and transparency.

The proposed unified retail end forex market will feature a centralized, democratized, and liberalized online real-time trading platform.

This innovation aims to provide market participants with greater accessibility and transparency while fostering regulatory compliance and government oversight.

Speaking on the vision for the unified market, Gwadabe highlighted the importance of collaboration with regulatory agencies, security operatives, and government bodies to ensure a secure and thriving forex market environment.

Gwadabe reiterated the benefits of a realistic and vibrant retail forex market, aligning with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) objectives of achieving true price discovery for the naira and balancing international obligations.

Also, the unified market structure aims to provide market intelligence reports, enhance the image of BDCs, and stimulate employment generation.

Furthermore, ABCON’s initiative aims to combat the proliferation of unlicensed forex platforms by creating a transparent and competitive market environment. By digitizing retail forex transactions and ensuring regulatory compliance, the association aims to capture revenues for the government and curb illicit financial activities.

ABCON, as a self-regulatory body representing all CBN-licensed BDCs, acknowledges the importance of maintaining integrity and adherence to regulatory standards within the sector.

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Forex

Yen Hits 34-Year Low Against Dollar Despite Bank of Japan’s Inaction

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The Japanese yen plummeted to a 34-year low against the US dollar, sending shockwaves through global financial markets.

Despite mounting pressure and speculation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) chose to maintain its key interest rate.

The yen’s relentless slide, extending to 0.7% to 156.66 against the dollar, underscores deep concerns about Japan’s economic stability and the efficacy of its monetary policies.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks at a post-meeting news conference did little to assuage fears as he acknowledged the impact of foreign exchange dynamics on inflation but downplayed the yen’s influence on underlying prices.

Investors, already on edge due to the yen’s dismal performance this year, are now bracing for further volatility amid speculation of imminent intervention by Japanese authorities.

The absence of decisive action from the BOJ has heightened uncertainty, with concerns looming over the potential repercussions of a prolonged yen depreciation.

The implications of the yen’s decline extend far beyond Japan’s borders, reverberating across global markets. The currency’s status as the worst-performing among major currencies in the Group of Ten (G-10) underscores its significance in the international financial landscape.

Policymakers have issued repeated warnings against excessive depreciation, signaling a commitment to intervene if necessary to safeguard economic stability.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government’s readiness to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the face of market volatility.

However, the lack of concrete action from Japanese authorities has left investors grappling with uncertainty, unsure of the yen’s trajectory in the days to come.

Market analysts warn of the potential for further downside risk, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases and the prospect of thin trading volumes due to public holidays in Japan.

The absence of coordinated intervention efforts and a clear policy stance only exacerbates concerns, fueling speculation about the yen’s future trajectory.

The yen’s current predicament evokes memories of past episodes of currency turmoil, prompting comparisons to Japan’s intervention in 2022 when the currency experienced a similar downward spiral.

The prospect of history repeating itself looms large, as market participants weigh the possibility of intervention against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile global economy.

As Japan grapples with the yen’s precipitous decline, the stakes have never been higher for policymakers tasked with restoring stability to the currency markets. With the world watching closely, the fate of the yen hangs in the balance, poised between intervention and inertia in the face of unprecedented challenges.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,300
  • Selling Rate: N1,290

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