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Economy of Lagos is Expanding, Outlook Bright

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While Nigeria’s economy is thought to have contracted in 2017, the commercial capital Lagos continued to expand. CNBC Africa’s Wole Famurewa spoke to Steve Ayorinde, Commissioner for Information and Strategy for Lagos State and discussed the spending plan and outlook for the state’s economy.

Recession is a word that we approach cautiously in Lagos because you also have to be sensitive to the general feelings in the country, but the way you look at the Lagos economy is that last year Lagos State actually generated more money than the year before it, when there was no recession.

Is that internally generated revenue by Lagos State?

Absolutely. And if you also look at the budget we’ve passed into law, N812 billion, which means that you can see that in about two years of Governor Akinwunmi Ambode’s Administration, the governor has almost doubled the budget size that he met in 2015, which means that the economy of the state is expanding. Lagos State is now an oil producing state, it has the largest petrochemical industry, the largest fertilizer west Africa, the largest refinery in Africa in a year or two will all be happening here. It means that something is happening and work has started and without a doubt, this is the fifth largest economy in Africa.

It has two of the most lucrative ports in Nigeria are in Lagos, so you can’t discount the fact that financially speaking, there’s actually no recession in Lagos state, but as I said we have to be sensitive to the general mood of the nation and what is going on.

But while we’re not trying to be insensitive to the broader country’s plight with the recession. I think it’s important to really highlight what is going on in Lagos. Like you mentioned, we’re looking at doubling the budget size in 2 years. So let’s get a sense of where that spending is going and the impact that you’re expecting.

Infrastructure. I say to people, one of the most iconic features of Lagos is the Lekki Ikoyi bridge. The one that Mark Zuckerberg jogged on. That image went viral all over the world. That bridge, as fantastic as it is, came at the 6th year of Fashola’s administration. In Governor Ambode’s first two years 2 similar bridges are on their way, not just to serve as iconic structures but to ease traffic in two of the most densely populated areas in Lagos. Those two fly over bridges will be ready before the 27th of May as part of the legacy and iconic projects that we thought are necessary to celebrate Lagos at 50. As we’re commissioning those two, work will be starting on another bridge to serve Agege. Work is progressing. In terms of infrastructure, roads are a major concern of this administration.

For a state that has about 9,000 roads, 6000 belong to local government and local council development areas means that there’s a lot crying for attention in these areas. This was why last year, we embarked on 114 roads, the first of its kind in Nigeria, we’re concentrating on inner and local government community roads. That’s 2 per local government and LCDA. This year we expanded the scope to 181 roads. This means that the least that any LCDA will get is two, but we realise that there are other areas that require more than two because of the nature of the road network. We don’t just want to fix roads, we want roads that will add to the economic activity; that will lead from one point till the other; that will connect to the express ways and the major roads. That’s why we said 181 roads. All will be delivered in addition to the other roads. You need to go to Epe and see the kind of road infrastructure that we’re putting on there. So, our area of focus is road infrastructure is without a doubt.

In addition to this we’re working in the hospitality and creative sectors. We’re building 6 theatres across Lagos in all the divisions of Lagos state, Epe, Badagry, Ikorodu. Areas that have otherwise been neglected, because we see that Lagos is not just about Lagos Island or Ikeja. Let every part of Lagos feel development under Ambode.

It sounds like a really great project that you’re putting out there, and the government is spending quite a bit, but then, we’ve heard a lot about what the government is doing, let’s move over to the private sector investment. It’s a difficult environment because of all the forex issues but tell us about that, the types of flows of private sector capital that we’re seeing into Lagos.

You know the beauty of what Lagos is enjoying is that practically everything that Lagos initiates involves a buy in from the private sector. Take for example the Security Trust Fund. You can’t have a mega city with 21 million people and counting without adequate provisions for security. the bulk of the money that goes into the Lagos state security trust fund actually comes from the private sector. It’s the same thing that we have applied with the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund. It’s a N25 billion, 4 year project but what we’re trying to say is that Lagos is partnering with the private sector to ensure that a sort of soft loan goes out to a number of young entrepreneurs to start up businesses and everything. The job of government is to provide an enabling environment for businesses to thrive, for salaries to be paid and for activities to flower. And that’s what Lagos state is trying to achieve with the way we’re softening all the laws that pertain to registration of businesses. We have the Lagos global office of home office affairs, serving as a one stop shop for people and businesses.

But are there any major projects coming from Lagos that we can anticipate this year?

A lot. Take for example the oil and gas sector. The Tunde Folawiyo oil and gas initiative. People say Lagos is an Oil and Gas state now, but it’s a private sector driven thing. Yes Lagos will gain statutory benefits as an oil and gas producing state, but who will derive the greatest benefit? It’s the Tunde Folawiyo company that will employ people and ensure that money is coming into the state and into the pockets of people that will be employed. It’s not coming to government directly but we’re ensuring that support is provided to the private sector. The whole idea is to partner with the private sector. If the economy is not, booming. If civil servants, are not getting their salaries, the rippling effect touches practically everybody.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

DR Congo-China Deal: $324 Million Annually for Infrastructure Hinges on Copper Prices

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In a significant development for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a newly revealed contract sheds light on a revamped minerals-for-infrastructure deal with China, signaling billions of dollars in financing contingent upon the price of copper.

This pivotal agreement, signed in March as an extension to a 2008 pact, underscores the intricate interplay between commodity markets and infrastructure development in resource-rich nations.

Under the terms of the updated contract, the DRC stands to receive a substantial injection of $324 million annually for infrastructure projects from its Chinese partners through 2040.

However, there’s a catch: this funding stream is directly linked to the price of copper. As long as the price of copper remains above $8,000 per ton, the DRC is entitled to this considerable sum to bolster its infrastructure.

The latest data indicates that copper is currently trading at $9,910 per ton, well above the threshold specified in the contract.

This bodes well for the DRC’s ambitious infrastructure plans, as the nation seeks to rebuild its road network, which has suffered from decades of neglect and conflict.

However, the contract also outlines a dynamic mechanism that adjusts funding levels based on copper price fluctuations.

Should the price exceed $12,000 per ton, the DRC stands to benefit further, with 30% of the additional profit earmarked for additional infrastructure projects.

Conversely, if copper prices fall below $8,000, the funding will diminish, ceasing altogether if prices dip below $5,200 per ton.

One of the most striking aspects of the contract is the extensive tax exemptions granted to the project, providing a significant financial incentive for both parties involved.

The contract stipulates a total exemption from all indirect or direct taxes, duties, fees, customs, and royalties through the year 2040, further enhancing the attractiveness of the deal for both the DRC and its Chinese partners.

This minerals-for-infrastructure deal, centered around the joint mining venture known as Sicomines, underscores the DRC’s strategic partnership with China, a key player in global commodity markets.

With China Railway Group Ltd., Power Construction Corp. of China (PowerChina), and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. holding a majority stake in Sicomines, the project represents a significant collaboration between the DRC and Chinese entities.

According to the contract, the total value of infrastructure loans under the deal amounts to a staggering $7 billion between 2008 and 2040, with a substantial portion already disbursed.

This infusion of capital is expected to drive socio-economic development in the DRC, leveraging its vast mineral resources to fund much-needed infrastructure projects.

As the DRC navigates the intricacies of global commodity markets, particularly the volatile copper market, this minerals-for-infrastructure deal with China presents both opportunities and challenges.

While it offers a vital lifeline for infrastructure development, the nation must remain vigilant to ensure that its long-term interests are safeguarded in the face of evolving market dynamics.

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Fitch Ratings Raises Egypt’s Credit Outlook to Positive Amid $57 Billion Bailout

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Fitch Ratings has upgraded Egypt’s credit outlook to positive, reflecting growing confidence in the North African nation’s economic prospects following an international bailout of $57 billion.

The upgrade comes as Egypt secured a landmark bailout package to bolster its cash-strapped economy and provide much-needed relief amidst economic challenges exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and the global pandemic.

Fitch affirmed Egypt’s credit rating at B-, positioning it six notches below investment grade. However, the shift in outlook to positive shows the country’s progress in addressing external financing risks and implementing crucial economic reforms.

The positive outlook follows Egypt’s recent agreements, including a $35 billion investment deal with the United Arab Emirates as well as additional support from international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

According to Fitch Ratings, the reduction in near-term external financing risks can be attributed to the significant investment pledges from the UAE, coupled with Egypt’s adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime and the implementation of monetary tightening measures.

These measures have enabled Egypt to navigate its foreign exchange challenges and mitigate the impact of years of managed currency policies.

The recent jumbo interest rate hike has also facilitated the devaluation of the Egyptian pound, addressing one of the country’s most pressing economic issues.

Egypt has faced mounting economic pressures in recent years, including foreign exchange shortages exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the region.

Challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and security threats in the Israel-Gaza region have further strained the country’s economic stability.

In response, Egyptian authorities have embarked on a series of reform efforts aimed at enhancing economic resilience and promoting private-sector growth.

These efforts include the sale of state-owned assets, curbing government spending, and reducing the influence of the military in the economy.

While Fitch Ratings’ positive outlook signals confidence in Egypt’s economic trajectory, other rating agencies have also expressed optimism.

S&P Global Ratings has assigned Egypt a B- rating with a positive outlook, while Moody’s Ratings assigns a Caa1 rating with a positive outlook.

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Fitch Ratings Lifts Nigeria’s Credit Outlook to Positive Amidst Reform Progress

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Fitch Ratings has upgraded Nigeria’s credit outlook to positive, citing the country’s reform progress under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

This decision is a turning point for Africa’s largest economy and signals growing confidence in its economic trajectory.

The announcement comes six months after Fitch Ratings acknowledged the swift pace of reforms initiated since President Tinubu assumed office in May of the previous year.

According to Fitch, the positive outlook reflects the government’s efforts to restore macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.

Fitch Ratings affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at B-, underscoring its confidence in the country’s ability to navigate economic challenges and drive sustainable growth.

Previously, Fitch had expressed concerns about governance issues, security challenges, high inflation, and a heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues.

However, the ratings agency expressed optimism that President Tinubu’s market-friendly reforms would address these challenges, paving the way for increased investment and economic growth.

President Tinubu’s administration has implemented a series of policy changes aimed at reducing subsidies on fuel and electricity while allowing for a more flexible exchange rate regime.

These measures, coupled with a significant depreciation of the Naira and savings from subsidy reductions, have bolstered the government’s fiscal position and attracted investor confidence.

Fitch Ratings highlighted that these reforms have led to a reduction in distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies.

As a result, sizable inflows have returned to Nigeria’s official foreign exchange market, providing further support for the economy.

Looking ahead, the Nigerian government aims to increase its tax-to-revenue ratio and reduce the ratio of revenue allocated to debt service.

Efforts to achieve these targets have been met with challenges, including a sharp increase in local interest rates to curb inflation and manage public debt.

Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s economic outlook appears promising, with Fitch Ratings’ positive credit outlook reflecting growing optimism among investors and stakeholders.

President Tinubu’s administration remains committed to implementing reforms that promote sustainable growth, foster investment, and enhance the country’s economic resilience.

As Nigeria continues on its path of reform and economic transformation, stakeholders are hopeful that the positive momentum signaled by Fitch Ratings will translate into tangible benefits for the country and its people.

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