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Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

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  • Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

Last week, the US data showed inflation rate rose 0.3 percent in December, while industrial output rebounded from 0.7 percent to 0.8 percent, with a capacity utilization rate of 75.5 percent. Although, the economy continued to churn out data in-line with the Federal Reserve projection for maximum employment and price stability, the US dollar dip during the week.

This is because the uncertainty surrounding the new administration’s likely policy going forward and global events like Theresa May’s proposed Brexit’s exit strategy is hurting the attractiveness of the dollar.

However, the Federal Reserve Chair, Yellen Janet, said with the unemployment rate nearing its longer-run normal level and likely to move a bit lower this year, the labor market remains healthy and will continue to create more jobs. This is one of the reasons investors are positive the Fed will raise rates at least 3 times this year, hence, the surge in demand for bonds.

In the UK, the Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday pitched post-Brexit strategy to the world and finally succumb to pressure to allow the parliament to vote on the final Brexit deal, a clause that changed the mid-term outlook of the pound as businesses, investors and stakeholders believe the deal has to be inclusive before parliament will approve it. This bolstered the pound to its highest two-day rally since 2009.

While, the UK economy continued to sustain its 4.8 percent unemployment rate, rising average earnings of 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent and strong consumer spending. The governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney sees weaker growth and rising inflation rate in 2017. Largely, the pound outlook remained uncertain as the country gets ready to exit the European Union 500 million consumers’ market.

In China, the economy grew by 6.8 percent in the 4th quarter of 2016, beating 6.7 percent forecast by analysts. While, on a yearly basis the industrial output rose by 6 percent, slightly below the 6.2 percent recorded a year earlier. The Chinese economy remains moderately strong as capital outflow that saw about $305 billion leave the economy in 2016 has started declining, while fixed asset investment surge to 8.1 percent (ytd).

Overall, the global financial is expected to remain uncertain until investors can deduce succinctly the direction of central banks’ policies, and most importantly the series of changes the 45th president of the United States of America will be making to fiscal policy.

GBPUSD

Last week, the pound gained 431 pips against the US dollar after Theresa May’s speech on Brexit strategy. But the pair remains below the 1.2534 resistance level that doubled as 20-day moving average.

Similarly, the drop in demand for the US dollar contributed to the pound gain, which means an increase in dollar demand this week could dampen the pound progress and reinforce the continuation of long-term bearish trend.

Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

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However, sustained break of 1.2534 resistant levels, will likely increase buyers’ interest and open up 1.2809 resistance levels as target 2. But failure to break 1.2534 will increase sellers’ interest. So this week, I will be monitoring price action alongside comments from policy makers to trade GBPUSD.

CADJPY

The series of data released last week showed Canadian economy is still struggling with weak inflation rate (-0.2%) and low consumer spending. Although, the manufacturing sector has started picking up, but the uncertainty surrounding crude oil and the increase in demand for haven asset continued to aid CADJPY.

Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

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This week, I am bearish on this pair as long as 86.36 resistance holds. While looking to sell below 86.03 price levels for 84.04 targets.

Last Week Recap

GBPJPY

The prime minister May’s comment bolstered all pound against its counterpart last week, hence, invalidating our projection for this pair. This week, I will stand aside to monitor price action better.

Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

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USDJPY

This pair retraced 4 days to the inauguration after dropping about 180 pips. This week, I remain bearish on this pair and will look to sell below 114.43 support level.

Forex Weekly Outlook January 23-27

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Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Forex

ABCON President Announces Blueprint for Unified Retail Forex Market

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate - Investors King

The President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, has revealed plans to establish a unified retail end forex market structure.

This strategic initiative seeks to address volatility and streamline operations across the Bureaux De Change (BDC) sub-sector.

Gwadabe outlined the objectives of ABCON’s blueprint and the need to integrate operators from various segments of the market.

Central to the plan is the inauguration of state chapters to facilitate coordination, integration, and administration of a united market structure.

ABCON intends to extend its automation policies and platforms to all BDC operators nationwide, upgrading its Business Process Platform to enhance efficiency and transparency.

The proposed unified retail end forex market will feature a centralized, democratized, and liberalized online real-time trading platform.

This innovation aims to provide market participants with greater accessibility and transparency while fostering regulatory compliance and government oversight.

Speaking on the vision for the unified market, Gwadabe highlighted the importance of collaboration with regulatory agencies, security operatives, and government bodies to ensure a secure and thriving forex market environment.

Gwadabe reiterated the benefits of a realistic and vibrant retail forex market, aligning with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) objectives of achieving true price discovery for the naira and balancing international obligations.

Also, the unified market structure aims to provide market intelligence reports, enhance the image of BDCs, and stimulate employment generation.

Furthermore, ABCON’s initiative aims to combat the proliferation of unlicensed forex platforms by creating a transparent and competitive market environment. By digitizing retail forex transactions and ensuring regulatory compliance, the association aims to capture revenues for the government and curb illicit financial activities.

ABCON, as a self-regulatory body representing all CBN-licensed BDCs, acknowledges the importance of maintaining integrity and adherence to regulatory standards within the sector.

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Forex

Yen Hits 34-Year Low Against Dollar Despite Bank of Japan’s Inaction

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The Japanese yen plummeted to a 34-year low against the US dollar, sending shockwaves through global financial markets.

Despite mounting pressure and speculation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) chose to maintain its key interest rate.

The yen’s relentless slide, extending to 0.7% to 156.66 against the dollar, underscores deep concerns about Japan’s economic stability and the efficacy of its monetary policies.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks at a post-meeting news conference did little to assuage fears as he acknowledged the impact of foreign exchange dynamics on inflation but downplayed the yen’s influence on underlying prices.

Investors, already on edge due to the yen’s dismal performance this year, are now bracing for further volatility amid speculation of imminent intervention by Japanese authorities.

The absence of decisive action from the BOJ has heightened uncertainty, with concerns looming over the potential repercussions of a prolonged yen depreciation.

The implications of the yen’s decline extend far beyond Japan’s borders, reverberating across global markets. The currency’s status as the worst-performing among major currencies in the Group of Ten (G-10) underscores its significance in the international financial landscape.

Policymakers have issued repeated warnings against excessive depreciation, signaling a commitment to intervene if necessary to safeguard economic stability.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government’s readiness to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the face of market volatility.

However, the lack of concrete action from Japanese authorities has left investors grappling with uncertainty, unsure of the yen’s trajectory in the days to come.

Market analysts warn of the potential for further downside risk, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases and the prospect of thin trading volumes due to public holidays in Japan.

The absence of coordinated intervention efforts and a clear policy stance only exacerbates concerns, fueling speculation about the yen’s future trajectory.

The yen’s current predicament evokes memories of past episodes of currency turmoil, prompting comparisons to Japan’s intervention in 2022 when the currency experienced a similar downward spiral.

The prospect of history repeating itself looms large, as market participants weigh the possibility of intervention against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile global economy.

As Japan grapples with the yen’s precipitous decline, the stakes have never been higher for policymakers tasked with restoring stability to the currency markets. With the world watching closely, the fate of the yen hangs in the balance, poised between intervention and inertia in the face of unprecedented challenges.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,300
  • Selling Rate: N1,290

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