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Local Production Suffers Setback on Dollarisation of Raw Materials

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  • Local Production Suffers Setback on Dollarisation of Raw Materials

The Federal Government’s efforts at diversifying the economy and reducing dependence on importation are being undermined by value-chain operators, farmers and providers of key raw materials who would rather export raw commodities for foreign exchange than sell to local producers at market prices.

The hot chase for forex by farmers and other raw material providers outside of government control will lead to higher prices, especially as scarcity and demand from neighbouring countries put pressure on local supply.

Local manufacturers say raw commodities like cotton, grains and natural gas, among others are being offered to local manufacturers at prevailing international market prices and payment being demanded in foreign exchange even as the materials are being harvested and produced domestically.

Operators noted that successes recorded by government intervention in some key industries might be eroded if access to raw materials was not guaranteed. This means that consumers may pay more for even locally-produced goods if the ugly trend is not checked.

The Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity to the President, Garba Shehu, had raised the alarm that the country currently risks famine from early next year due to the huge export of the country’s grains to attract foreign exchange, even when local demands have not been met.

With the exception of organisations that deployed out-grower schemes to develop their value-chain capacity, other operators have had to depend on imports subject to availability of foreign exchange or depend on open market where prices are arbitrarily determined by farmers and value-chain operators.

The President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Dr. Frank Jacobs, explained that manufacturers have begun to look inwards for raw materials sourcing since access to foreign exchange has become limited. The idea of ‘looking inwards’ for raw materials is to sustain operations, leading to poor capacity utilisation. He argued that suppliers’ penchant for across-the-border sales is frustrating manufacturers looking to source raw materials locally.

Manufacturers are worried that government, which recently reported glut in grains and farmers’ inclination to sell to foreigners, has not evolved an efficient interventionist policy to mop up the excess and guarantee future supplies in event of famine.

The Ministry of Agriculture could not confirm immediate plans to revive marketing boards. The Guardian could not reach Minister Audu Ogbeh on his mobile phone. His media aide, Dr. Olukayode Oyeleye, instead offered to provide details on Monday (today). Marketing board is a stop-gap mechanism to ensure supplies and stabilize price between planting seasons.3w

The President of the Nigerian Textile Manufacturers Association (NTMA), Mrs. Grace Adereti, canvassed the revival of the Commodities Board as a measure to ease textile manufacturers’ access to raw materials for production.

Lamenting the present situation, Aderetin said: “When we contacted the farmers, they said that they are not ready to supply to us at the price negotiated by the ginners. Further inquiry showed that farmers based their price on what they will generate from exporting the cotton. They want to sell at 40 cents per kilogramme of cotton.

“If we accede to the price, our output will become uncompetitive considering the infrastructural deficit in the country, which affects the cost of production. We are in a fix. Some factories have suspended production because they do not have cotton for production.

“In the past, there was a market board and government had control over the price of cotton. We want the government to intervene in this matter and save manufacturers. We have the machinery and the workforce and we are ready to produce, but we are hindered by the present situation.”

The Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Muda Yusuf, decried the lack of a fiscal policy framework to guide operations in the real sector.

According to him, if the fundamentals are not right, backward integration will not work as so many linkages in the value-chain are missing.

“We need to build capacity of investors in the value-chain for backward integration to be successful. Except for the big manufacturers with huge capacity, it could be too much for industrialists to embark on the process with little or no support. Government needs to embark on a holistic and integrated approach as some of the raw materials are not easy to get as it is being described”, Yusuf said.

The Director-General of NTMA, Hamma Kwajaffa, also alleged that rivalry among government agencies contributed to the challenges hindering the growth of the textile industry.

“The former Minister of Agric initiated the creation of the cotton corporation, but he had a rivalry with the Minister of Trade that said establishing the corporation falls within his domain. That was how the whole matter was stalled at the Federal Executive Council.

“The absence of regulation makes everyone to fix prices that they want across the value chain. If you go to Chad, you cannot just buy cotton. It is regulated by their government. We will prefer that local usage of cotton is given preference before export,” Kwajaffa said.

The Chairman, MAN Gas Users Group, Dr. Michael Adebayo stated that dollarisation of materials needed for production is a disincentive for local producers, adding that the trend has affected gas pricing, with many operators struggling to keep their factories running.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Climb on Renewed Middle East Concerns and Saudi Supply Signals

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As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties, oil prices rose on Monday on renewed concerns in the Middle East and signals from Saudi Arabia regarding its crude supply.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, surged by 51 cents to $83.47 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 53 cents to $78.64 a barrel.

The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Hamas has amplified fears of a widening conflict in the key oil-producing region, prompting investors to closely monitor developments.

Talks for a ceasefire in Gaza have been underway, but prospects for a deal appeared slim as Hamas reiterated its demand for an end to the war in exchange for the release of hostages, a demand rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The uncertainty surrounding the conflict was further exacerbated on Monday when Israel’s military called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate Rafah as part of a ‘limited scope’ operation, sparking concerns of a potential ground assault.

Analysts warned that such developments risk derailing ceasefire negotiations and reigniting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, Saudi Arabia announced an increase in the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude sold to Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in June.

This move signaled the kingdom’s anticipation of strong demand during the summer months and contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices.

The uptick in prices comes after both Brent and WTI crude futures posted their steepest weekly losses in three months last week, reflecting concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the timing of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

However, with most of the long positions in oil cleared last week, analysts suggest that the risks are skewed towards a rebound in prices in the early part of this week, particularly for WTI prices towards the $80 mark.

Meanwhile, in China, the world’s largest crude importer, services activity remained in expansionary territory for the 16th consecutive month, signaling a sustained economic recovery.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the second consecutive week, indicating a potential tightening of supply in the near term.

As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, investors remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Drop Sharply, Marking Steepest Weekly Decline in Three Months

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Amidst concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the potential timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, oil prices record its sharpest weekly decline in three months.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, settled 71 cents lower to close at $82.96 a barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 84 cents, or 1.06% to end the week at $78.11 a barrel.

The primary driver behind this decline was investor apprehension regarding the impact of sustained borrowing costs on the U.S. economy, the world’s foremost oil consumer. These concerns were amplified after the Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates at their current levels this week.

Throughout the week, Brent experienced a decline of over 7%, while WTI dropped by 6.8%.

The slowdown in U.S. job growth, revealed in April’s data, coupled with a cooling annual wage gain, intensified expectations among traders for a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank.

Tim Snyder, an economist at Matador Economics, noted that while the economy is experiencing a slight deceleration, the data presents a pathway for the Fed to enact at least one rate cut this year.

The Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged this week, despite acknowledging elevated inflation levels, has prompted a reassessment of the anticipated timing for potential rate cuts, according to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.

Higher interest rates typically exert downward pressure on economic activity and can dampen oil demand.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the second consecutive week, reaching the lowest count since January 2022, as reported by Baker Hughes.

The oil and gas rig count fell by eight to 605, with the number of oil rigs dropping by seven to 499, the most significant weekly decline since November 2023.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict have somewhat eased as discussions for a temporary ceasefire progress with international mediators.

Looking ahead, the next meeting of OPEC+ oil producers is scheduled for June 1, where the group may consider extending voluntary oil output cuts beyond June if global oil demand fails to pick up.

In light of these developments, money managers reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week leading up to April 30, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound After Three Days of Losses

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After enduring a three-day decline, oil prices recovered on Thursday, offering a glimmer of hope to investors amid a volatile market landscape.

The rebound was fueled by a combination of factors ranging from geopolitical developments to supply concerns.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria oil is priced, surged by 79 cents, or 0.95% to $84.23 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 69 cents, or 0.87% to $79.69 per barrel.

This turnaround came on the heels of a significant downturn that had pushed prices to their lowest levels since mid-March.

The recent slump in oil prices was primarily attributed to a confluence of factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and concerns surrounding stubborn inflation, which could potentially dampen economic growth and limit oil demand.

Also, unexpected data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealing a substantial increase in U.S. crude inventories added further pressure on oil prices.

“The updated inventory statistics were probably the most salient price driver over the course of yesterday’s trading session,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

Crude inventories surged by 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations and casting a shadow over market sentiment.

However, the tide began to turn as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas gained traction, offering a glimmer of hope for stability in the volatile Middle East region.

The prospect of a ceasefire agreement, spearheaded by Egypt, injected optimism into the market, offsetting concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions.

“As the impact of the U.S. crude stock build and the Fed signaling higher-for-longer rates is close to being fully baked in, attention will turn towards the outcome of the Gaza talks,” noted Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.

The potential for a resolution in the Israel-Hamas conflict provided a ray of hope, contributing to the positive momentum in oil markets.

Despite the optimism surrounding ceasefire talks, tensions in the Middle East remain palpable, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating plans for a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

The precarious geopolitical climate continues to underpin volatility in oil markets, reminding investors of the inherent risks associated with the commodity.

In addition to geopolitical developments, speculation regarding U.S. government buying for strategic reserves added further support to oil prices.

With the U.S. expressing intentions to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at prices below $79 a barrel, market participants closely monitored price movements, anticipating potential intervention to stabilize prices.

“The oil market was supported by speculation that if WTI falls below $79, the U.S. will move to build up its strategic reserves,” highlighted Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, owned by Nissan Securities.

As oil markets navigate a complex web of geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, the recent rebound underscores the resilience of the commodity in the face of adversity.

While challenges persist, the renewed optimism offers a ray of hope for stability and growth in the oil sector, providing investors with a semblance of confidence amidst a volatile landscape.

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