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Government Stalls Revision of 41 Restricted Items’ List

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  • Government Stalls Revision of 41 Restricted Items’ List

Over a year after the Federal Government promised to review the 41 restricted items from accessing foreign exchange (forex) from the interbank rate, the interest charged on short-term funds among banks, indications have emerged that a revised list may not be released anytime soon.

This emerged despite assurances by the government to reduce pressure on the parallel market, an unofficial market for trading currencies, to encourage local production.

The restricted items include Rice, cement, palm kernel/palm oil products/vegetables oils, meat and processed meat products, vegetables and processed vegetable products, poultry chicken, eggs, turkey, private airplanes/jets, cold rolled steel sheets, wood particle boards and panels, textiles, plastic and rubber products, polypropylene granules, cellophane wrappers, soap and cosmetics as well as tomatoes/tomato pastes.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the lender of last resort, justified the action saying that such imports led to manufacturing companies closing down their operations as they were local goods were being substituted with seemingly cheap imports while inadvertently exporting jobs and importing poverty to the country.

Indeed, an authoritative source from the CBN stated that while the concerns raised by MAN and the OPS on the 41 items are being reviewed, it discovered that many manufacturers preferred to import rather than produce locally even when obstacles were being removed.

The highly placed source, who prefers anonymity, stated that some manufacturers had accessed facilities to the tune of N3 billion without any form of security, while others who expressed interest to backwardly integrate their processes had no farms but only interested in continued importation of such goods.

The source noted that “despite claims about lack of access to forex, not less than 1,342 manufacturers and allied firms received $660.17 million from the CBN through Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) for importation of raw materials, plants and machinery in September.”

The source argued that government will be doing the economy a disservice if it yielded to pressure to withdraw restriction on some of the restricted items as they can be sourced and produced locally.

Many indigenous manufacturers are already threatening to exit from Nigeria over lack of access to forex and other financial support, but Government accused them of sabotage.

According to Government, those manufacturers threatening to leave the country are unpatriotic and only seek funds to continue importation rather than backwardly integrating their processes to enhance local production.

Reacting to the allegation, the President, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Dr. Frank Jacobs, said that while it may be true that some manufacturers are not sincere to their commitments to commence local production having enjoyed certain waivers and privileges, it may not be true to generalise that manufacturers are not sincere to the backward integration agenda.

This is because many members of MAN are already seeking alternative sources for their raw materials locally.

“I may not be able to hold brief for all manufacturers, but I do know that the area where some operators have enjoyed some concession is in the area of tomato production, even though there is not much to show for it. Others are backwardly integrating as that is the only alternative due to the scarcity of foreign exchange,” Jacobs added.

Private individuals under the Organised Private Sector (OPS) and the manufacturers had differed with the apex bank on the classification and definition of some of the products restricted from access to forex market, stating that some of the items are raw materials used in the course of production in their factories.

MAN President, Jacobs, noted that about 680 HS codes were identified following the breakdown and classification of the 41 restricted items by the CBN from the official forex window into HS codes.

Of the 680 HS codes, Jacobs explained that 95 HS codes are raw materials used in the course of production in the factories and they are presently restricted from access to forex market.

This is meant to identify some of the 41 items restricted from the subsidised official forex window that are believed to form part of the raw materials used in local production by manufacturing firms.

Indeed, Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, while speaking at the yearly general meeting of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) in Lagos, had noted that negotiations are ongoing with the CBN.

Meanwhile, some of the manufacturers decried the lack of fiscal policy framework by the Government to encourage economic activities through spending and tax incentives, describing it as measures that guarantee their investments in the country.

The Director-General of the non-profit premier chamber of commerce in Nigeria, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Muda Yusuf, decried the lack of a fiscal policy framework that will guide operations in the real sector.

According to him, if the fundamentals are not right, backward integration will not work as so many linkages in the value-chain are missing.

“We need to build capacity of investors in the value-chain for backward integration to be successful. Except for the big manufacturers with huge capacity, it could be too much for industrialists to embark on the process with little or no support. Government needs to embark on a holistic and integrated approach as some of the raw materials are not easy to get as it is being described,” Yusuf said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Drop Sharply, Marking Steepest Weekly Decline in Three Months

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Amidst concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the potential timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, oil prices record its sharpest weekly decline in three months.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, settled 71 cents lower to close at $82.96 a barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 84 cents, or 1.06% to end the week at $78.11 a barrel.

The primary driver behind this decline was investor apprehension regarding the impact of sustained borrowing costs on the U.S. economy, the world’s foremost oil consumer. These concerns were amplified after the Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates at their current levels this week.

Throughout the week, Brent experienced a decline of over 7%, while WTI dropped by 6.8%.

The slowdown in U.S. job growth, revealed in April’s data, coupled with a cooling annual wage gain, intensified expectations among traders for a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank.

Tim Snyder, an economist at Matador Economics, noted that while the economy is experiencing a slight deceleration, the data presents a pathway for the Fed to enact at least one rate cut this year.

The Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged this week, despite acknowledging elevated inflation levels, has prompted a reassessment of the anticipated timing for potential rate cuts, according to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.

Higher interest rates typically exert downward pressure on economic activity and can dampen oil demand.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the second consecutive week, reaching the lowest count since January 2022, as reported by Baker Hughes.

The oil and gas rig count fell by eight to 605, with the number of oil rigs dropping by seven to 499, the most significant weekly decline since November 2023.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict have somewhat eased as discussions for a temporary ceasefire progress with international mediators.

Looking ahead, the next meeting of OPEC+ oil producers is scheduled for June 1, where the group may consider extending voluntary oil output cuts beyond June if global oil demand fails to pick up.

In light of these developments, money managers reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week leading up to April 30, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound After Three Days of Losses

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Crude oil - Investors King

After enduring a three-day decline, oil prices recovered on Thursday, offering a glimmer of hope to investors amid a volatile market landscape.

The rebound was fueled by a combination of factors ranging from geopolitical developments to supply concerns.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria oil is priced, surged by 79 cents, or 0.95% to $84.23 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 69 cents, or 0.87% to $79.69 per barrel.

This turnaround came on the heels of a significant downturn that had pushed prices to their lowest levels since mid-March.

The recent slump in oil prices was primarily attributed to a confluence of factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and concerns surrounding stubborn inflation, which could potentially dampen economic growth and limit oil demand.

Also, unexpected data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealing a substantial increase in U.S. crude inventories added further pressure on oil prices.

“The updated inventory statistics were probably the most salient price driver over the course of yesterday’s trading session,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

Crude inventories surged by 7.3 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations and casting a shadow over market sentiment.

However, the tide began to turn as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas gained traction, offering a glimmer of hope for stability in the volatile Middle East region.

The prospect of a ceasefire agreement, spearheaded by Egypt, injected optimism into the market, offsetting concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions.

“As the impact of the U.S. crude stock build and the Fed signaling higher-for-longer rates is close to being fully baked in, attention will turn towards the outcome of the Gaza talks,” noted Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.

The potential for a resolution in the Israel-Hamas conflict provided a ray of hope, contributing to the positive momentum in oil markets.

Despite the optimism surrounding ceasefire talks, tensions in the Middle East remain palpable, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating plans for a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

The precarious geopolitical climate continues to underpin volatility in oil markets, reminding investors of the inherent risks associated with the commodity.

In addition to geopolitical developments, speculation regarding U.S. government buying for strategic reserves added further support to oil prices.

With the U.S. expressing intentions to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at prices below $79 a barrel, market participants closely monitored price movements, anticipating potential intervention to stabilize prices.

“The oil market was supported by speculation that if WTI falls below $79, the U.S. will move to build up its strategic reserves,” highlighted Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, owned by Nissan Securities.

As oil markets navigate a complex web of geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, the recent rebound underscores the resilience of the commodity in the face of adversity.

While challenges persist, the renewed optimism offers a ray of hope for stability and growth in the oil sector, providing investors with a semblance of confidence amidst a volatile landscape.

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Gold

Gold Soars as Fed Signals Patience

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Gold emerged as a star performer as the Federal Reserve adopted a more patient stance, sending the precious metal soaring to new heights.

Amidst a backdrop of uncertainty, gold’s ascent mirrored investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets and reflected their interpretation of the central bank’s cautious approach.

Following the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current levels, gold prices surged toward $2,330 an ounce in early Asian trade, building on a 1.5% gain from the previous session – the most significant one-day increase since mid-April.

The dovish tone struck by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the announcement provided the impetus for gold’s rally, as he downplayed the prospects of imminent rate hikes while underscoring the need for further evidence of cooling inflation before considering adjustments to borrowing costs.

This tempered outlook from the Fed, which emphasized patience and data dependence, bolstered gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Investors interpreted the central bank’s stance as a signal of continued support for accommodative monetary policies, providing a tailwind for the precious metal.

Simultaneously, the Japanese yen surged more than 3% against the dollar, sparking speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.

This move further weakened the dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of gold to investors seeking refuge from currency volatility.

Gold’s ascent in recent months has been underpinned by a confluence of factors, including robust central bank purchases, strong demand from Asian markets – particularly China – and geopolitical tensions ranging from conflicts in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East.

These dynamics have propelled gold’s price upwards by approximately 13% this year, culminating in a record high last month.

At 9:07 a.m. in Singapore, spot gold was up 0.3% to $2,326.03 an ounce, with silver also experiencing gains as it rose towards $27 an ounce.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index concurrently fell by 0.3%, further underscoring the inverse relationship between the dollar’s strength and gold’s allure.

However, amidst the fervor surrounding gold’s surge, palladium found itself trading below platinum after dipping below its sister metal for the first time since February.

The erosion of palladium’s long-standing premium was attributed to a pessimistic outlook for demand in gasoline-powered cars, highlighting the nuanced dynamics within the precious metals market.

As gold continues its upward trajectory, investors remain attuned to evolving macroeconomic indicators and central bank policy shifts, navigating a landscape defined by uncertainty and volatility.

In this environment, the allure of gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to endure, providing solace to investors seeking stability amidst turbulent times.

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