Nigeria’s crude oil production comes under scrutiny as figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) contradict the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC)’s claim.
NUPRC had reported 1.538 million barrels per day (bpd) production for the month of October while the NNPC had claimed 1.8 million bpd of crude oil was produced for the same month.
The NUPRC’s data, which reflects a three-month low, challenges recent declarations by the NNPC and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources.
Earlier this month, NNPC’s Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, expressed optimism about achieving two million bpd by the end of the year.
“The team has done a great job not just in production recovery but in driving production to acceptable levels based on mandates from the president and the board,” Kyari stated.
However, the numbers tell a different story as the NUPRC report showed Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production for October fell significantly short of the figures touted by the NNPC, showing a gap of 270,000 bpd.
These discrepancies are not new. In fact, in August NNPC reported 1.7 million bpd while NUPRC put production at 1.57 million bpd.
This consistent variance has raised concerns about the reliability of production data and its implications for the oil-dependent economy.
Mr. Lawal Musa, the Senior Business Adviser to Kyari, had previously highlighted the strides made since June 2024, when production was at 1.43 million bpd. “We’ve seen consistent growth, achieving 1.7 million bpd in August and 1.808 million bpd in November,” he said. He added that collaborative efforts, especially in addressing security challenges, could propel Nigeria to two million bpd.
Contrary to the optimism, NUPRC’s records paint a challenging picture. From January to October 2024, the data shows fluctuating production rates, with October marking the lowest in three months. Forcados Terminal, a key production site, recorded a drop from 7.29 million barrels in September to 5 million barrels in October, contributing to the overall decline.
The NUPRC, as the upstream regulator, is tasked with maintaining accurate records of Nigeria’s petroleum operations.
Its October report shows the ongoing challenges in meeting the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) production quota of 1.58 million bpd.
Nigeria’s inability to meet its OPEC quota has persisted for years, with the country citing oil theft, vandalism, and ageing infrastructure as key reasons for the shortfall.
The NNPC has also highlighted waning investment in the sector as a major hurdle.
“Nigeria must address these systemic issues if it hopes to achieve its production targets,” said an industry analyst who preferred to remain anonymous.
The difference between NUPRC’s verified data and NNPC’s optimistic projections has reignited calls for greater transparency and accountability in reporting crude oil production. For a nation heavily reliant on oil revenues, these figures are not just numbers; they represent the state of its economic lifeline.
